Long Play Updates
Short Play Updates
Smith A O Corp. - AOS - close: 39.47 chg: -0.17 stop: 42.26
AOS's midday rally failed at $40.40 and shares closed back under the $40 level to hit a new relative low. This looks like a new entry point to short the stock. Our only concern would be the below average volume but that tends to be common this time of year. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range.
Picked on August 10 at $39.75
Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.40 chg: -0.29 stop: 24.55
The MACD indicator on the daily chart for the DJUSHB home construction index produced a new sell signal with today's decline in the sector. Meanwhile shares of BHS lost 1.2% and its own MACD indicator is nearing a new sell signal. More aggressive traders may want to jump in now and open bearish plays. We're still waiting for a breakdown under $23.00. Our trigger to open positions is at $22.99. If triggered our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!
Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 21.24 chg: +0.17 stop: 22.15
The market rally today fueled a bounce in DELL to the $22 level but the stock failed to make it any higher. The trend is still bearish but we're not suggesting new positions. DELL is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, August 17th. We do not want to hold over the announcement so we plan to exit on Thursday at the closing bell. Our target is the $19.25.00-19.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $16 target.
Picked on August 09 at $21.14
Eagle Materials - EXP - close: 35.65 chg: +0.28 stop: 39.26
EXP did produce an oversold bounce today (+0.79%) but like most of the major averages shares of EXP pared their gains and closed near their lows for the session. We remain bearish and don't see any changes from our weekend update. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is projecting a $26 target.
Picked on August
08 at $36.18
FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 59.51 chg: +1.07 stop: 60.26
Watch out! FMC is showing a lot more relative strength than we anticipated. Shares rallied to $60.13 before reversing course near its descending 21-dma and its exponential 200-dma. Volume on the session was above average, which is good news for the bulls. We're also cautious following today's breakout over its simple 200-dma. We suspect the stock is rallying higher on the pull back in crude oil. Petroleum can be a major ingredient and cost in chemical manufacturing. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Wait for a new decline under $58.00. If the markets manage to bounce tomorrow then we would expect FMC to stop us out at $60.26.
Picked on August 08 at $57.20
Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 12.44 chg: +0.24 stop: 13.75
We do not see any change from our weekend update on JNPR. Traders may still want to exit early and lock in gains right here. We're not suggesting new positions and it's very possible that JNPR will try and "fill the gap" from Friday morning. Our target has been the $12.00-10.00 range. We will be closing the play if JNPR trades at or below $12.00.
Picked on July 21 at $13.75
Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 48.13 chg: +0.92 stop: 50.05
The market rebound today helped fuel a 1.9% bounce in shares of LAMR and the stock closed back above support/resistance at the $48.00 level. We would probably wait for a move under the Monday afternoon low (near $47.65) before initiating new positions. The P&F chart the bearish price target is at $40.00. Our target is the $45.15-45.00 range.
Picked on August 10 at $47.90
Oregon Steel - OS - close: 47.00 chg: -0.39 stop: 50.51
Steel and iron-related stocks continue to look weak. Shares of OS lost 0.8% on Monday and its MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. We do not see any changes from our new play description from this weekend. The Point & Figure chart is still bullish but short-term technicals have turned negative. We are suggesting shorts with OS under $49.00. Our target is the $42.50-42.00 range, which is essentially near the bottom of its two-month trading range. The latest (July) data puts short interest at 6% of OS' 35.7 million share float.
Picked on August 13
Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 40.25 chg: +0.26 stop: 42.05
We see no changes from our new play description on PRAA. The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $39.49 (under Friday's low) to open new short positions. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.
on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 51.50 chg: -0.40 stop: 55.21
There are no changes from our weekend update on STLD. The stock is inching closer to our target in the $50.00-49.00 range. The P&F chart shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $42 target.
August 09 at $53.95
Meridian Biosci. - VIVO - cls: 20.08 chg: +0.58 stop: 21.21
The market bounce sparked some short covering in VIVO and the stock out performed its peers with a 2.9% gain today. The close back above broken support and what should be overhead resistance at $20.00 is worrisome. We would wait for a decline back under $19.80 before considering new short plays. Our target is the $18.15-18.00 range since the $18.00 level was support last year. The P&F chart points to a $16 target.
Picked on July 23 at $20.94
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays