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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Smith A O Corp. - AOS - close: 41.24 chg: +1.77 stop: 42.26

It looks like the market rally and PPI data produced a short squeeze in AOS. The stock added 4.4% yet volume was significantly below the daily average. We're not suggesting new positions and if the CPI data comes in favorably tomorrow we're expecting to be stopped out at $42.26.

Picked on August 10 at $39.75
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 288 thousand

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Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 24.30 chg: +0.90 stop: 24.55

We don't see any changes from our weekend play description for BHS. The homebuilders rallied strongly today in spite of a very negative read on homebuilder confidence. The NAHB announced that its housing index fell to a 15-year low. We're waiting for a breakdown in BHS under $23.00. Our trigger to open positions is at $22.99. If triggered our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Eagle Materials - EXP - close: 35.60 chg: -0.05 stop: 39.26

EXP displayed relative weakness today with a failure to participate in the very widespread market rally on Tuesday. Considering the market's potential bullish breakout we're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops in case the CPI report comes in better than expected tomorrow.

Picked on August 08 at $36.18
Change since picked: - 0.58
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 13.49 chg: +1.05 stop: 13.75

Ouch! The market's rally produced a big short-squeeze in shares of JNPR today. The stock added 8.44% and erased most of our unrealized gains. News that JNPR received a delisting letter from the NASDAQ failed to faze investors. We are not suggesting new positions. If the CPI data comes in favorable we expect to be stopped out. The risk here is if JNPR gaps open higher or that JNPR will move past our stop so fast we'll get a bad fill on the exit. Be prepared.

Picked on July 21 at $13.75
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 48.91 chg: +0.78 stop: 50.05

LAMR is still rebounding but the results still seem somewhat lackluster. If the CPI report is positive tomorrow we would expect LAMR to rally toward resistance near $50 and its 200-dma. Odds of being stopped out at $50.05 would be pretty high. We're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 10 at $47.90
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Oregon Steel - OS - close: 48.56 chg: +1.56 stop: 50.51

Steel and iron-related stocks produced a relatively strong rebound today. Shares of OS added 3.3% although volume came in below average. We're trying to trade a pull back toward the bottom of its trading range but if the markets rally on a better than expected CPI report tomorrow then OS will likely challenge overhead resistance near our stop loss.

Picked on August 13 at $47.39
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 41.86 chg: +1.61 stop: 42.05

We see no changes from our new play description on PRAA. The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $39.49 (under Friday's low) to open new short positions. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 53.10 chg: +1.60 stop: 55.21

The market rally fueled a +3.1% oversold bounce in shares of STLD. The move took a good chunk of our unrealized gains. We're not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops should the CPI data come in better than expected.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 22.08 chg: +0.84 stop: 22.15

We have been stopped out of DELL at $22.15. DELL was one of the big stories today after the company announced a recall of 4.1 million laptop batteries due to a potential fire hazard. The stock unexpectedly rallied on the bad news. Maybe investors figure it can't get any worse than this. Rival Hewlett-Packard is due to report earnings tomorrow night and DELL will report earnings on Thursday night.

Picked on August 09 at $21.14
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.1 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 60.35 chg: +0.84 stop: 60.26

We have been stopped out of FMC at $60.26. The market's rally this morning fueled a breakout in FMC over the $60 level and its exponential 200-dma and 21-dma. The move higher today also produced a new MACD buy signal.

Picked on August 08 at $57.20
Change since picked: + 3.15
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 298 thousand

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Meridian Biosci. - VIVO - cls: 22.02 chg: +1.94 stop: 21.21

We have been stopped out at $21.21 today. The stock experienced a big short squeeze right from the opening bell with a gap open higher at $20.49 and a spike past the $21 level. The move today helped produce a new MACD buy signal.

Picked on July 23 at $20.94
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 175 thousand
 

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