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Long Play Updates


Short Play Updates

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 25.19 chg: +0.89 stop: 24.55

We are still sitting on the sidelines with BHS so we're currently not at risk. That's the good news. Homebuilders rallied strongly today on the tame CPI data as investors hope it means the Fed will pass at raising rates again for the rest of the year. If BHS sees any significant follow through higher tomorrow we'll drop it as a bearish candidate. We're waiting for a breakdown in BHS under $23.00. Our trigger to open positions is at $22.99. If triggered our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand


Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 49.45 chg: +0.54 stop: 50.05

The oversold bounce in LAMR continues. The market rally has pulled the stock back from its bearish breakdown. Now shares are poised to challenge resistance near $50 and its 200-dma. We're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 10 at $47.90
Change since picked: + 1.55
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand


Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 41.84 chg: -0.02 stop: 42.05

We see no changes from our (weekend) new play description on PRAA. The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $39.49 (under Friday's low) to open new short positions. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 54.49 chg: +1.39 stop: 55.21

More conservative traders may want to think about an early exit to limit losses on STLD. The steel sector is rebounding strongly and STLD is bouncing from an oversold condition. Today's gain put the stock back above its simple 10-dma and the short-term technicals are turning positive. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Smith A O Corp. - AOS - close: 42.55 chg: +1.31 stop: 42.26

We have been stopped out of AOS at $42.26. The tamer than expected inflation data in this morning's CPI report fueled another market rally. Shares of AOS added more than 3% and broke out over the $42 level and its exponential 200-dma.

Picked on August 10 at $39.75
Change since picked: + 2.80
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 288 thousand


Eagle Materials - EXP - close: 38.06 chg: +2.46 stop: 39.26

Shorts were scrambling for cover today in EXP. The stock rallied almost 7% on the CPI news. Volume came in above average. We considered keeping EXP as a bearish play but shares are on the verge of breaking out past its trendline of lower highs. We're choosing to exit early and minimize losses.

Picked on August 08 at $36.18
Change since picked: + 1.88
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million


Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 13.78 chg: +0.29 stop: 13.75

We have been stopped out of JNPR at $13.75 (breakeven). Today's CPI report inspire another round of short covering and JNPR added over 2%. Volume continues to come in below average and JNPR is still in a long-term bearish trend but we would not suggest new bearish plays at this time.

Picked on July 21 at $13.75
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million


Oregon Steel - OS - close: 50.23 chg: +1.67 stop: 50.51

We are suggesting an early exit in OS. The steel stocks are rebounding strongly and traders might want to switch to longs if OS can breakout past the $51.00 level.

Picked on August 13 at $47.39
Change since picked: + 2.84
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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