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Long Play Updates

JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.46 change: -0.04 stop: 2.24

We don't see any real changes from our new play description from Wednesday night. Today's trading does suggest that JDSU will see more of a dip soon so traders might want to be patient and look for a pull back into the $2.40-2.35 region before considering going long. Our target is the simple 200-dma near $2.88 (range 2.85-2.90). Considering the stock's volatility we need to label this a more aggressive, higher-risk play. Please note that we do not want to hold over the August 30th earnings report.

Picked on August 16 at $ 2.50
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 08/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.3 million

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Novellus - NVLS - close: 27.16 change: +0.51 stop: 24.99

Semiconductor stocks continued to mark gains today following an analyst upgrade for AMD. Meanwhile shares of NVLS managed to out perform the SOX (+0.5%) with a 1.9% follow through move on yesterday's breakout. We would still consider going long here but our preferred entry would be on a pull back. The semis are looking a little short-term overbought and due for a dip. Our target is the $29.50-30.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks. Please note that NVLS has announced its mid-quarter update for August 30th, 2006.

Picked on August 16 at $26.65
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Teradyne - TER - close: 13.62 change: +0.09 stop: 12.49

We remain bullish on TER but traders may want to be careful about opening new positions right here. The stock's trading today produced a failed rally at the $14.00 level. This sort of short-term bearish reversal suggests that TER may be headed back towards the $13.25-13.00 range. A bounce above $13.00 would be a preferred entry point to begin new long plays. Our target is the $14.75-15.00 range, which is under the simple 200-dma.

Picked on August 16 at $13.53
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 24.95 chg: -0.24 stop: 24.55

Homebuilders were stronger early today but the sector eventually saw some profit taking on this week's big bounce. Shares of BHS under performed its peers with a 0.9% loss. We're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown under $23.00. More aggressive traders may want to consider shorts right here with a stop loss above today's high. Our suggested trigger to open positions is at $22.99. If triggered our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 41.73 chg: -0.11 stop: 42.05

We see no changes from our (weekend) new play description on PRAA. The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $39.49 (under last Friday's low) to open new short positions. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 52.90 chg: -1.59 stop: 55.21

The oversold bounce in shares of STLD stalled today. Shares lost just over 2.9% although volume continues to come in light. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $50.00-49.00 range. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (suggestions: 55.01 or $54.76).

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 49.66 chg: +0.21 stop: 50.05

A positive analyst rating on LAMR this morning sent the stock spiking higher at the opening bell. Shares quickly sprinted from $49.48 to $50.37 before producing a failed rally under technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. We've been stopped out at $50.05 but more aggressive traders might want to look for a decline from here as a new entry point for shorts.

Picked on August 10 at $47.90
Change since picked: + 1.76
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand
 

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