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Long Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 44.62 chg: -0.20 stop: 41.95

Uh-oh! We need to urge caution on our new play with BAM. Yesterday the stock broke out over significant resistance. Today BAM saw some follow through this morning but shares reversed under the $46.00 level and the stock appears to have produced a big failed rally. Odds of a pull back toward $44 look very good and we would probably expect a dip toward the 10-dma near $42.85. Wait and watch for the bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 27.00 chg: -0.42 stop: 24.49

EBAY is still trading sideways and we are still sitting on the sidelines. It is our plan to catch a dip into the $26.25-25.25 range and so we're using a trigger to open positions at $26.25, which has not yet been hit. If triggered our short-term target is the $29.85-30.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to give some serious thought to opening bullish positions now.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 26.45 change: -0.65 stop: 25.80 *new*

The trading in ELK today looks like bad news. The very little follow through higher quickly failed and the stock looks poised to move lower. We would watch for a dip to and bounce from the $26.00 region near its 50-dma. Unfortunately, the 50-dma is near $25.90 so we're adjusting the stop loss to $25.80. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range but we are somewhat concerned about potential resistance at its descending 100-dma, currently nearing the $28 level.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.51 change: +0.00 stop: 2.24

JDSU looks like it's trying to climb higher but the market weakness undermined any gains the stock was making. Shares closed unchanged on the session. Our target is the $2.85-2.90 range. We do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk play due to JDSU's volatility. Please note that we do not want to hold over the August 30th earnings report.

Picked on August 16 at $ 2.50
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 08/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.3 million

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Lucent Tech. - LU - close: 2.22 change: -0.03 stop: 2.14

LU consolidated down to the $2.20 level before traders bought the dip. We see the bounce from $2.20 as a new entry point but traders might want to wait for a move over today's high of $2.26 before initiating positions. Don't forget that Alcatel (ALA) members are set to vote on the LU-ALA merger on September 7th. Traders should definitely keep an eye on shares of ALA since weakness in ALA will affect LU. Our target for LU is the $2.50-2.60 range.

Picked on August 20 at $ 2.31
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.36 chg: -0.08 stop: 27.95

There is no change from our previous updates on MXIM. The stock is still consolidating under resistance at the top of its descending (bearish) channel. The failed rally under $30 looks like a new short entry point but we're keeping MXIM as a long candidate with a strategy to go long the stock on a breakout. Our plan is to use a trigger at $30.15 to go long the stock. If triggered our target is the $33.00-34.00 range, which is under the falling 200-dma.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 17.03 chg: -0.33 stop: 15.45

We need to urge caution here with NITE. There was no follow through higher on the stock's recent breakout and shares produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. These patterns are usually seen as bearish reversals. Thus we would not consider new positions at this time. Wait and watch to see how far shares of NITE consolidate lower. Right now we'd expect a dip to the 10-dma and maybe the $16.00 level.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Novellus - NVLS - close: 26.68 change: +0.39 stop: 24.99

NVLS is back into the green for us with a 1.48% bounce from its rising 10-dma. This looks like a new bullish entry point to go long the stock but traders might want to hesitate on opening new plays with the SOX index still consolidating after last week's big gains. Our target is the $29.50-30.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Picked on August 16 at $26.65
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Stereotaxis - STXS - cls: 11.53 change: +0.03 stop: 9.89

Traders might want to think about taking some profits off the table. The stock dipped to $10.89 this morning before bouncing back and actually hitting a new relative high. We're not suggesting new positions with STXS so close to our target in the $11.85-12.00 range.

Picked on August 21 at $10.31
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 272 thousand

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Teradyne - TER - close: 13.54 change: -0.15 stop: 12.89

TER is struggling to make any progress with the semiconductor sector still digesting last week's gains. TER has been trading sideways in the $13.50-14.00 range. Readers can choose to buy a bounce from $13.50 or wait for a breakout but our target is the $14.75-15.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $13.53
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 45.96 chg: -0.74 stop: 44.79

Oil stocks experienced some weakness after this morning's higher than expected fuel inventory data. Readers can use this pull back as a new entry point. However, just to be safe traders might want to wait for a move over yesterday's high (46.70) before initiating new positions. Our target is the $49.75-50.00 range although more conservative types might want to exit near $49.20 (currently the August high).

Picked on August 22 at $46.70
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.51 chg: -0.98 stop: 24.55

Homebuilders sold off today after the existing home sales figures came in lower than expected. Shares of BHS lost 4% and the stock is quickly approaching support near $23.00. Aggressive traders might want to consider shorts now. We are suggesting a trigger to open plays at $22.99. Our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 39.70 chg: -0.47 stop: 42.05

PRAA hit another new relative low but shares haven't broken the $39.50 level yet. Aggressive traders might want to open positions now. We're still suggesting a trigger to open plays at $39.49. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 51.52 chg: -1.28 stop: 54.15

The worse than expected home sales figures revived worries over a slowing economy and STLD lost 2.4% on the session. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $50.25-50.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

St. Mary Land Expl. - SM - close: 39.32 chg: -1.76 stop: 39.95

We have been stopped out of SM at $39.95. Oil stocks were weak on a higher than expected fuel inventory data out today. Shares of SM drifted lower most of the day and then suddenly seemed to fall off a cliff right there near the closing bell. The breakdown under $40.00 and its 50-dma and 200-dma looks pretty bearish (as is the break below its two-month trendline of support).

Picked on August 20 at $40.97
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 642 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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