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Long Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 44.09 chg: -0.53 stop: 41.95

We expected BAM to trade lower today but the good news is that the stock held on to the $44.00 level. The pull back may not be over yet so be ready for a dip toward the 10-dma. Wait and watch for the bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.73
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 25.78 chg: -1.22 stop: 24.49

Our play in EBAY is now open. The stock gapped open lower to open at $26.39 and then traded down toward the $25.60 region. It was our plan to buy a pull back in the stock with a trigger at $26.25. Unfortunately, the sell-off today was sparked by an analyst firm's downgrade to an "under perform". We would look for a bounce from here (above $25.50) as a new entry point and more conservative types can wait for a new move back above the 50-dma (near 26.60) as a new entry point. Our target is the $29.85-30.00 range.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 26.65 change: +0.20 stop: 25.80

ELK managed a little bit of a bounce on Thursday, which is good news since we were expecting a dip towards $26 and its 10-dma. The short-term pattern is one of a sideways consolidation so traders can choose to try and time an entry point on a dip or wait for a new relative high. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range but we are somewhat concerned about potential resistance at its descending 100-dma, currently nearing the $28 level.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.59 change: +0.08 stop: 2.24

JDSU is showing relative strength. The stock added more than 3% with a rally toward the $2.60 level. It looks like the momentum began to stall near its exponential 200-dma. We're going to raise our stop loss to $2.29, which is near the 50-dma. More conservative traders might want to put their stops under the 10-dma (currently 2.41). Our target is the $2.85-2.90 range. We do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk play due to JDSU's volatility. Please note that we do not want to hold over the August 30th earnings report.

Picked on August 16 at $ 2.50
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 08/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.3 million

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Lucent Tech. - LU - close: 2.21 change: -0.01 stop: 2.14

Lack of a bounce in shares of LU from yesterday's test of the $2.20 level and it 50-dma is discouraging. More conservative traders may want to bail out early to cut their losses or consider tightening their stop losses. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Don't forget that Alcatel (ALA) members are set to vote on the LU-ALA merger on September 7th. Traders should definitely keep an eye on shares of ALA since weakness in ALA will affect LU. Our target for LU is the $2.50-2.60 range.

Picked on August 20 at $ 2.31
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.69 chg: +0.33 stop: 27.95

MXIM is starting to show signs of life again with two days of short-term support near $28.00. Our strategy is to catch a breakout through the top of its channel near resistance at $30.00. Our trigger to go long is at $30.15. If triggered our target is the $33.00-34.00 range, which is under the falling 200-dma.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 16.66 chg: -0.37 stop: 15.45

We have more bad news with NITE. The stock lost another 2% following yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Yesterday we said that the next move looks like a dip toward the 10-dma and maybe the $16.00 level. We're not suggesting new long positions at this time. Wait and see where NITE bounces.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Novellus - NVLS - close: 26.69 change: +0.01 stop: 24.99

An upgrade for NVLS this morning helped the stock open higher but the rally faded. Fortunately, bulls bought the dip near NVLS' 10-dma for the third day in a row. This looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $29.50-30.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Picked on August 16 at $26.65
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Stereotaxis - STXS - cls: 11.24 change: -0.29 stop: 9.99*new*

Uh-oh! The three-day pattern is starting to look like a failed rally/bearish reversal. Traders might want to lock in profits now. We're not suggesting new positions and we're adjusting our stop loss to $9.99. Our target in the $11.85-12.00 range.

Picked on August 21 at $10.31
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 272 thousand

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Teradyne - TER - close: 13.55 change: +0.01 stop: 12.89

TER was downgraded to a "neutral" this morning but traders bought the dip near its 10-dma and 50-dma. The bounce looks like a new bullish entry point but you might want to wait for more confirmation with a gain tomorrow (over today's high) before initiating plays. Our target is the $14.75-15.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $13.53
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 46.72 chg: +0.76 stop: 44.79

Some positive analyst comments and a higher price target helped lift XTO to a 1.6% gain. We remain bullish and see today's move as a new entry point to go long. Our target is the $49.75-50.00 range although more conservative types might want to exit near $49.20 (currently the August high).

Picked on August 22 at $46.70
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.64 chg: +0.13 stop: 24.55

BHS dipped to $23.09 this morning but the homebuilders managed a bounce today and the stock turned positive by the close. We remain on the sidelines. Our plan is to catch a breakdown under the $23.00 level. We are suggesting a trigger to open plays at $22.99. Our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 38.64 chg: -1.06 stop: 42.05

PRAA continued to sell-off on Thursday and shares lost 2.6% to hit a new multi-month low. Our trigger to short PRAA was at $39.49 so the play is now open. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August 24 at $39.49
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 50.60 chg: -0.92 stop: 53.95*new*

More conservative traders might want to lock in profits now. The stock dipped to $50.30 this afternoon but our target is the $50.25-50.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and we're adjusting the stop loss to breakeven at $53.95.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 3.35
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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