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Long Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 45.96 chg: +1.18 stop: 41.95

The rally in shares of BAM began to pick up speed on Friday. The stock turned in a 2.6% gain on better than average volume and set a new closing high. If you're looking for a new entry point we'd wait for a dip back toward the $45.00 level. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stop loss. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. Our time frame is three to five weeks.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.15 chg: +0.33 stop: 25.95 *new*

EBAY continues to bounce following Thursday's intraday spike lower. Shares of EBAY appear to have broken their long-term bearish channel. The action over the last month definitely looks like a change in trend. Short-term we continue to target a rally into the $29.50-30.00 range but we're concerned that the falling 100-dma, currently near 29.50, might be overhead resistance. To avoid having EBAY reverse on us just below our target we're going to adjust the target to $29.25-29.50. We're also adjusting our stop loss to $25.95. We're not suggesting new plays at this time but we would definitely keep EBAY on your watch list for future entry points.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 28.41 change: +0.24 stop: 25.80

The rally continues in ELK. The stock just posted its seventh gain in a row. Last week was pretty bullish with a breakout to new relative highs and over resistance at $28.00 and its 100-dma. We remain optimistic and continue to target the $29.75-30.00 range. However, ELK does look a little short-term overbought and due for a consolidation. Expect a dip back towards the $27.50 region. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Lucent Tech. - LU - close: 2.34 change: +0.01 stop: 2.19

The daily chart for LU is bullish with a big breakout last month from a four-month bearish channel. The stock has already pulled back to retest broken resistance as support. Yet we're seeing a mixed picture in the technical indicators for both LU and ALA. The two companies are planning to merge so shares are trading in sync with one another. We are not going to suggest new plays at this time. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop loss toward $2.25. Not only are we concerned about some of the technical indicators but LU is nearing potential resistance at its descending 100-dma. This coming week will see ALA shareholders vote on the LU merger on September 7th. Our target for LU is $2.50.

Picked on August 20 at $ 2.31
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 28.89 chg: -0.21 stop: 27.95

We are still sitting out on the sidelines with MXIM. The rally in the semiconductors (and MXIM) stalled on Thursday and Friday as the sector digested some of its previous gains. This last month the SOX index appears to have produced a trend change higher. That's good news for MXIM and as the sector marches higher we expect the stock to follow. This last week MXIM managed to breakout through the top edge of its long-term bearish channel and technical resistance at the 50-dma but failed to breakout over the $30.00 level. Our suggested entry point to go long the stock is at $30.15. If triggered our target is the $33.00-34.00 range. If MXIM instead moves lower then nimble traders might want to consider shorts on a drop under the $28.00 level.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 17.62 chg: +0.16 stop: 15.95

NITE is still inching higher. The stock closed at a new multi-year high on Friday. Currently shares appear to be trading up a week or two and then down a week or two but in an upward trend. We are bullish due to the stock's various patterns. NITE has a bullish double-bottom pattern formed in June and July. On the weekly chart the stock has a big (really big) bullish cup-and-handle pattern. We are suggesting longs on the stock right here but traders can choose to look for a dip back towards $17.00 or wait for a breakout above $18.00. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $25 target.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Novellus - NVLS - close: 27.55 change: -0.37 stop: 25.95

Be careful! The rally in NVLS is starting to run out of steam. The stock produced a failed-rally type pattern on Friday. Volume came in below average. We suspect the next move will be down since NVLS looks overbought and due for a bit of a correction. We are not suggesting new plays at this time and more conservative traders may want to take some profits here and tighten their stops. We would look for a dip towards $26.80 or $26.50. Our target remains the $29.50-30.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $26.65
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Stereotaxis - STXS - cls: 10.86 change: -0.27 stop: 9.99

Thus far STXS has been performing on cue. Its only miss was the intraday high on August 23rd at 11.71. We were aiming for the $11.85-12.00 range. This past Thursday we warned readers that the next move would likely be down and STXS complied with a 2.4% loss on Friday and a breakdown below its 10-dma. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early immediately. We would expect STXS to dip toward the 200-dma near $10.50 and potentially back to the $10.00 level. FYI: The short interest is around 14% of the float but that reading was taken before the big squeeze in August.

Picked on August 21 at $10.31
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 272 thousand

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Teradyne - TER - close: 13.72 change: -0.32 stop: 13.24

The profit taking in TER on Friday was a little bit worse than we expected. Shares fell 2.2% and closed under $14.00 and its 10-dma. The short-term momentum indicators are starting to suggest a deeper pull back is in order. We are not suggesting new positions at this time although traders can watch for a bounce from the $13.50 level as a new entry point. Currently our target is the $14.75-15.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $13.53
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Black Box - BBOX - close: 38.39 change: -0.15 stop: 40.06 *new*

Networking stock BBOX is still inching lower and under performing its peers in the networking sector and the NASDAQ. This past week saw BBOX produce a failed rally near $39.50 and its 10-dma, which helped reaffirm the current bearish trend. We are suggesting new shorts with BBOX under $39.00 but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $37.80 before opening positions. We're going to tighten our stop loss to $40.06. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range.

Picked on August 27 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.80 chg: +0.20 stop: 24.45 *new*

Watch out! BHS produced a false breakdown on Friday. Shares tried to breakout over $24 on Friday morning only to reverse course and plunge through support near $23.00. The stock actually hit new two-year lows before snapping back into its $23-24 trading range. We could not find any news or catalyst to explain the bout of volatility in BHS. The homebuilders were not volatile and the homebuilding indices continue to consolidate sideways. We are not suggesting new plays at this time although traders might want to reconsider if BHS drops to a new low. We are going to adjust our stop loss down to $24.45 but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to resistance near $24.00. Honestly, we are seriously considering an early exit to cut our losses. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August 25 at $22.99
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.89 chg: +0.24 stop: 37.25

Friday did not produce the sort of downward follow through we were looking for in HRL. Then again volume was very low on Friday so it's hard to trust what direction the stock traded. We would watch for a failed rally under $37.00 (near its 10-dma) as a new entry point to consider shorts. We're only looking for a short-term decline toward technical support near its 200-dma. We'll put a stop loss above the recent bearish reversal and target the $35.00-34.50 range.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 40.12 chg: +0.40 stop: 41.65

We have bad news. Thursday's failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick in PRAA did not see any follow through on Friday. Instead the stock bounced back above round-number resistance at the $40.00 mark. Short-term technical indicators (very short-term) are suggesting the next move will be up. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $41.00 level. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Currently our target is the $36.00 level.

Picked on August 24 at $39.49
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

The Pantry - PTRY - close: 49.53 chg: +2.67 stop: 43.99

Target achieved. Our new play in PTRY hit our target a lot faster than we expected. Shares opened at $47.25 and soared to $50.96 before paring their gains and closing back under resistance at $50 and its 50-dma. Our target was the $49.85-50.00 range. Readers can keep PTRY on their watch list and look for a dip and bounce near the $48.00 or $46.00 levels, which could act as support.

Picked on August 31 at $46.86
Change since picked: + 2.67
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 269 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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