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Long Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 45.24 chg: -0.95 stop: 42.95

The market's sell-off on Wednesday prompted investors to do some profit taking in BAM, with the stock at new all-time highs. Shares lost just over 2% on above average volume. The consolidation may not be over yet. We would watch for a dip toward $44.00 so we're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.21 chg: -0.47 stop: 25.95

The market profit taking was lead by tech stocks and the Internet sector saw a 2.2% decline. Shares of EBAY fell 1.6%. We are not suggesting new bullish positions and traders might want to seriously consider just exiting early now to lock in a gain. If the profit taking continues we could easily see EBAY consolidate down toward the $26.50 region. If you don't want to weather that kind of pull back consider exiting early. Our target is the $29.25-29.50 range.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 1.96
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 27.87 change: -0.73 stop: 25.80

The profit taking in ELK (-2.55%) wiped out three days of gains. We have been warning readers that ELK looked a bit overbought and due for a dip. We'd like to see a bounce from its rising 10-dma near $27.50 but would probably expect a dip closer to the $27 level. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Mittal Steel - MT - close: 33.91 chg: -0.84 stop: 32.49

The sector-wide rally in steel stocks was not exempt from the market-wide profit taking on Wednesday. Shares of MT lost 2.4% on low volume. The stock has pulled back toward what should be short-term technical support at its 10-dma and 100-dma. We're still on the sidelines. Our trigger to go long the stock is at $35.26. If triggered our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $47 target.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 29.36 chg: -0.71 stop: 27.95

Tech stocks led the sell-off today and the semiconductor sector index (SOX) fell 3.2%. Shares of MXIM lost 2.3%, which is disappointing following yesterday's bullish breakout over the $30.00 mark. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock is at $30.15. Our target is the $33.00-34.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 17.57 chg: -0.44 stop: 15.95

NITE lost 2.4% during today's market-wide pull back. The stock looks poised to dip toward the $17.00 level. We would wait and watch for a bounce before considering new positions. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $25 target.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 54.50 change: -1.62 stop: 49.99

STLD is another stock in the recently strong steel sector that experienced some sharp profit taking today. STLD lost 2.88% and just about erased yesterday's gains. Wait and watch for a bounce near the $52.50-52.75 region before considering new long positions. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the October earnings report.

Picked on September 03 at $54.48
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Stereotaxis - STXS - cls: 10.54 change: -0.24 stop: 10.29 *new*

We expected shares of STXS to pull back toward technical support at its 200-dma and the stock delivered today. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Please note that we're raising the stop loss to $10.29, which is almost breakeven.

Picked on August 21 at $10.31
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 08/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 272 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Black Box - BBOX - close: 37.44 change: -1.44 stop: 40.06

The NWX networking index lost 2.79% today but BBOX under performed its peers with a 3.7% loss and a new relative low. This looks like a new entry point to short the stock. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range.

Picked on August 27 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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BCE Inc. - BCE - close: 24.58 change: -0.16 stop: 25.26

We are a little bit surprised that BCE did not show more weakness on Wednesday. However, we do note that today's session produced a new MACD sell signal on its daily chart. Plus, the stock produced another failed rally at its 10-dma again. This looks like another entry point for shorts. Our target is not the far edge of its trading range but what looks like intermediate support at $23.25. We'll actually use a target range of $23.35-23.25.

Picked on September 03 at $24.73
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 225 thousand

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Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 22.70 chg: -1.00 stop: 24.45

Bears finally have what looks like a real breakdown in BHS. The homebuilders lost 3.7% but BHS under performed its peers with a 4.2% sell-off on rising volume. The close under support at $23.00 is pretty bearish and marks a new multi-year low for the stock. We see the close under $23.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August 25 at $22.99
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.15 chg: -0.25 stop: 37.25

HRL continues to slip lower following yesterday's failed rally. Our only complaint is the lack of volume supporting the move. We're only looking for a short-term decline toward technical support near its 200-dma. We'll put a stop loss above the recent bearish reversal and target the $35.00-34.50 range.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 39.24 chg: -0.82 stop: 41.65

Entry point alert! PRAA dropped back under the $39.50 level, which is what we suggested readers look for as a new entry to short the stock. Volume came in above average support the move. Currently our target is the $36.00 level.

Picked on August 24 at $39.49
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Lucent Tech. - LU - close: 2.27 change: -0.08 stop: 2.19

We are suggesting an early exit in LU. The stock saw a 3.4% sell-off and a breakdown under its rising 10-dma. Merger-partner ALA also saw a 2.3% drop and the technicals on both stocks are growing worse. Readers may want to keep an eye on LU to see if shares bounce from the $2.20 level and its 50-dma. ALA members are due to vote on the proposed merger tomorrow.

Picked on August 20 at $ 2.31
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42 million

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Novellus - NVLS - close: 26.90 change: -0.83 stop: 25.95

We are going to pull the plug on our NVLS play. The stock's breakdown under the 10-dma and its new MACD sell signal following the recent failed rally near $28 look like good reasons to exit early. More aggressive traders might want to try and ride out this pull back but consider raising your stop loss toward $26.50 or even breakeven at $26.65.

Picked on August 16 at $26.65
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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RF Micro Devices - RFMD - cls: 6.49 chg: -0.29 stop: 6.45

We are choosing to cut our losses in RFMD early. We hate to yank a new play so quickly but the lack of follow through on yesterday's bullish bounce from support is bad news. It also looked like traders were buying the dip in SOX and we'd see a continuation of the rally in semiconductors. Instead tech stocks lead the way lower and the SOX lost 3.2%. Shares of RFMD fell 4.2%. We would have done better to use a trigger on RFMD above resistance near $6.80 or even $7.00.

Picked on September 05 at $ 6.78
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.2 million

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Teradyne - TER - close: 13.32 change: -0.50 stop: 13.24

We are suggesting an early exit on TER. The sell-off in the tech stocks was lead by disk drives and semiconductors. Shares of TER lost 3.6% and broke down under the $13.50 level. The lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce is bad news and suggests there is more weakness ahead.

Picked on August 16 at $13.53
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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