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Long Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 43.93 chg: -0.64 stop: 42.95

We have to wave the yellow caution flag with our play on BAM. Most of the market rebounded on Friday following a sharp two-day pull back. Shares of BAM failed to participate in any bounce. Instead the stock produced a mini-failed rally at the 10-dma and the decline on Friday helped produce a MACD sell signal on the daily chart. Volume came in a little bit above the daily average. More conservative traders might want to cut their losses right here and exit early. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.51 chg: +0.98 stop: 26.75 *new*

Traders stepped in to buy the dip in EBAY on Friday. The stock rallied with a 3.5% gain after dipping toward its 10-dma on Thursday. Overall the pattern looks bullish given the stock's apparent breakout from its longer-term bearish channel but we still see short-term resistance at the descending 100-dma, currently near $29.10. Due to the 100-dma approaching EBAY we're going to adjust our target from $29.25-29.50 to $28.95-29.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. We're going to raise our stop loss to $26.75. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 2.26
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 27.98 change: +0.14 stop: 26.45 *new*

The Friday bounce in ELK did not get very far. Shares spent most of the day butting up against the $28.00 level. Overall the pattern looks bullish given ELK's breakout from its long-term bearish channel. However, we hesitate to suggest new positions right here. We're going to raise our stop loss to $26.45.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Mittal Steel - MT - close: 33.63 chg: +0.13 stop: 32.49

The bullish trend in MT may be in jeopardy. Early last week the steel sector saw a widespread rally and several stocks in the group broke out above key resistance levels. Unfortunately, that proved to be a bull trap. The breakouts all reversed and in MT's case the stock never broke out over resistance at $35.00. Currently shares of MT are trading near the bottom of its four-week rising channel. If the stock closes under $33.00 we'll drop MT as a bullish candidate. Until then we'll keep waiting for a breakout over resistance at $35.00. If triggered our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $47 target.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 16.99 chg: -0.07 stop: 15.95

There is no change from our previous updates on NITE. We told readers to expect a dip toward the stock's two-month trendline of rising support. Technically NITE is giving us mixed signals with the majority of short-term momentum indicators turning bearish. The weekly MACD and the P&F chart are still bullish. A bounce above $16.00 or $16.50 could be used as a new entry point to go long the stock but we would be extra careful about opening new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 43.93 chg: -0.64 stop: 42.95

We have to wave the yellow caution flag with our play on BAM. Most of the market rebounded on Friday following a sharp two-day pull back. Shares of BAM failed to participate in any bounce. Instead the stock produced a mini-failed rally at the 10-dma and the decline on Friday helped produce a MACD sell signal on the daily chart. Volume came in a little bit above the daily average. More conservative traders might want to cut their losses right here and exit early. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.51 chg: +0.98 stop: 26.75 *new*

Traders stepped in to buy the dip in EBAY on Friday. The stock rallied with a 3.5% gain after dipping toward its 10-dma on Thursday. Overall the pattern looks bullish given the stock's apparent breakout from its longer-term bearish channel but we still see short-term resistance at the descending 100-dma, currently near $29.10. Due to the 100-dma approaching EBAY we're going to adjust our target from $29.25-29.50 to $28.95-29.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. We're going to raise our stop loss to $26.75. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 2.26
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 27.98 change: +0.14 stop: 26.45 *new*

The Friday bounce in ELK did not get very far. Shares spent most of the day butting up against the $28.00 level. Overall the pattern looks bullish given ELK's breakout from its long-term bearish channel. However, we hesitate to suggest new positions right here. We're going to raise our stop loss to $26.45.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Mittal Steel - MT - close: 33.63 chg: +0.13 stop: 32.49

The bullish trend in MT may be in jeopardy. Early last week the steel sector saw a widespread rally and several stocks in the group broke out above key resistance levels. Unfortunately, that proved to be a bull trap. The breakouts all reversed and in MT's case the stock never broke out over resistance at $35.00. Currently shares of MT are trading near the bottom of its four-week rising channel. If the stock closes under $33.00 we'll drop MT as a bullish candidate. Until then we'll keep waiting for a breakout over resistance at $35.00. If triggered our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $47 target.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 16.99 chg: -0.07 stop: 15.95

There is no change from our previous updates on NITE. We told readers to expect a dip toward the stock's two-month trendline of rising support. Technically NITE is giving us mixed signals with the majority of short-term momentum indicators turning bearish. The weekly MACD and the P&F chart are still bullish. A bounce above $16.00 or $16.50 could be used as a new entry point to go long the stock but we would be extra careful about opening new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 29.20 chg: -0.16 stop: 27.95

We are dropping MXIM as a bullish candidate. The SOX semiconductor index has spent the last two weeks failing to breakout over technical resistance at its descending 100-dma. The sell-off last week produced a new MACD sell signal for the SOX and the path of least resistance might be down at least until the SOX retests the 420 level or its 50-dma as support. Shares of MXIM did manage to breakout from its multi-month bearish channel but the stock never achieved a significant breakout over the $30.00 level. Our suggested trigger to go long MXIM has been at $30.15, which has not yet been hit. If the SOX does continue to slip lower then MXIM might breakdown support at the $28.00 level and traders, if you're nimble enough, may want to short the stock for a 6%-10% move.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 52.83 change: -0.98 stop: 49.99

We are choosing to cut our losses early with STLD. The sector-wide rally in the steel sector that began early last week has failed. Shares of STLD couldn't get past its 50-dma and now shares look poised to fall back toward the 200-dma or the $50 level. We'd rather exit now and wait and watch to see if and where STLD bounces.

Picked on September 03 at $54.48
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.75 chg: +0.40 stop: 24.05

Watch out! The homebuilders managed to bounce on Friday in spite of another earnings warning from another company in the industry (third warning this week). It seems that the market may have already priced in all the bad news. Shares of BHS managed to spike to $24.03. Our stop loss is at $24.05. We are suggesting that traders exit early right now. The intraday chart suggests the next move is still upward. The latest (August) data puts short interest at 27.8% (up from 20% in July) of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze! Traders might actually want to consider going long the stock above $24.15 or its 50-dma (25.62) in an effort to capture any short-squeeze in the stock!

Picked on August 25 at $22.99
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand
 

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