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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 32.87 change: -0.06 stop: 30.95

The rally in AAP paused on Wednesday and volume appeared to evaporate following the surge in volume during the recent run up. This pause lends strength to the idea that traders might want to wait for a dip back toward $32.00 before initiating new positions. We do not see any other changes from our new play description from Tuesday. Our target is the $35.80-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $32.93
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Akamai Tech. - AKAM - close: 44.19 chg: +0.89 stop: 39.85

AKAM continues to show relative strength. The stock added another 2% to out perform the NASDAQ and the INX Internet index. Volume continues to come in strong, which is bullish. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. The company held an analyst meeting today and we didn't read anything negative about what was said.

Picked on September 11 at $42.05
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 44.57 chg: -0.29 stop: 42.95

We told readers not to be surprised if BAM tries to "fill the gap" from Tuesday morning. That's exactly what shares did today. BAM spiked lower (to 43.78) and then sharply bounced back again. If you look at the daily chart the candlestick looks somewhat bullish. However, if you look at the intraday chart we don't like how the rally began to fade into the closing bell. We are not suggesting new long positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops or exit early to cut their losses! Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.00 chg: -0.45 stop: 27.25 *new*

Be careful here! EBAY is still struggling with resistance near $29.00 and its descending 100-dma. The relative weakness today (-1.5%) is discouraging and more conservative traders may just want to lock in a profit now. We're raising our stop loss to $27.25. Yesterday we updated our exit strategy. Our new plan is to sell part of your EBAY position at $28.75 and then sell the rest at $29.90, which is under what should be resistance at the $30.00 mark. Conservative traders could adjust this strategy and sell part of their position now and then the rest at $29.90.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 1.75
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 29.27 change: +0.78 stop: 27.65 *new*

ELK continues to show relative strength and shares hit new three-month highs with today's 2.7% gain on rising volume. The surge in volume is a big improvement and supports the bulls. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit early right here or at the exponential 200-dma near $29.60. Please note that we're raising the stop loss to $27.65.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 2.17
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 18.27 chg: +0.50 stop: 16.39

Broker-dealer stocks and investment-related equities turned in another strong session following a positive earnings report from LEH today. The XBD index added 2.3% and shares of NITE managed to out perform with a 2.8% gain. The stock is once again hitting new multi-year highs. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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SafeNet Inc. - SFNT - close: 18.80 chg: -0.55 stop: 17.89

SFNT suffered some profit taking after yesterday's big rally. Volume came in below average so we're not too alarmed. At the moment we're still on the sidelines waiting for another breakout over resistance near $19.50. Our suggested entry point to go long is at $19.60. More aggressive traders might want to try a higher-risk entry on a bounce near $18.00. If triggered our target is the $22.00 level. More conservative traders may still want to wait for a rally over $20.00 before opening plays.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 300 thousand

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United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.89 chg: +0.67 stop: 61.99

Yesterday's rebound in UTX continued into Wednesday's session. The stock added another 1%. Our only concern was the pull back in volume. Overall UTX continues to look bullish and we would continue to go long the stock here. Our target is the $66 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. Be aware that some of UTX's management will be speaking at a conference on September 15th.

Picked on September 10 at $63.34
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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WebEx Comm. - WEBX - close: 38.49 chg: +0.00 stop: 34.99

If you're a glass half-full person then the lack of profit taking in WEBX today is a positive sign. If you're more of a glass is half-empty person then the lack of follow through higher might be an issue. We don't see any changes from our new play description from Tuesday. Traders can choose to go long at current levels or hope for a pull back. Our target is the $42.50-44.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $38.49
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Black Box - BBOX - close: 38.93 change: +0.25 stop: 39.05

The rally (or short covering) in the networking sector continued on Wednesday. The NWX networking index added another 1.1% and shares of BBOX crept higher adding 0.6% but they remain under short-term resistance at $39.00. Honestly after studying the intraday chart on BBOX, if there is any market strength tomorrow, we would expect to be stopped out at $39.05.

Picked on August 27 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.36 chg: +0.01 stop: 37.05

HRL is still consolidating sideways with what might be considered a bullish pattern of rising lows since the stock keeps bouncing at its rising 100-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to adjust their stops toward breakeven (36.65).

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - cls: 24.46 change: +0.23 stop: 27.01

PTEN and most of the oil sector produced an oversold bounce on Wednesday. The stock got come positive analyst comments (buy rating) and crude oil rebounded after seven straight losses. The bounce may not be over yet so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.75-22.50 range. Remember, our biggest risk is probably any escalation between the West and Iran but currently that conflict is in a lull.

Picked on September 10 at $25.28
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 42.36 chg: +1.69 stop: 41.05

We have been stopped out at $41.05. The rally (or short covering) in PRAA extended into its second day. The stock rose just over 4% and broke out over short-term resistance at $41.00 and resistance at its trendline of resistance near the 50-dma.

Picked on August 24 at $39.49
Change since picked: + 2.87
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand
 

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