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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 32.62 change: -0.25 stop: 30.95

AAP has been relatively resistant to profit taking after Tuesday's big rally. Volume has been somewhat light during the last couple of sessions, which is what we should expect in a new up trend. Traders can choose to go long here or consider waiting for a pull back toward $32.00, which as broken resistance should be new support. Our target is the $35.80-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $32.93
Change since picked: - 0.31
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Akamai Tech. - AKAM - close: 45.88 chg: +1.68 stop: 39.85

Yesterday we mentioned again that AKAM had an analyst day and that we really didn't hear much about it. Well the analysts came out today with their comments. There was at least one downgrade but this was overshadowed by an upgrade, a raised price target and more than one analyst reiterating their "buy" rating. Shares of AKAM rallied 3.8% on strong volume. The close over the $45.00 level, which was potential resistance, is a good sign. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop or take some profits or both right here.

Picked on September 11 at $42.05
Change since picked: + 3.83
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Brookfield Asset Mgt. - BAM - cls: 44.55 chg: -0.02 stop: 42.95

We are growing a bit uncomfortable with the lack of upward momentum in BAM. Overall the stock's pattern has a bullish trend to it but some of the short-term technical indicators are suggesting the next move will be lower. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses early or raise their stops. We're leaving our stop at $42.95 since the $43.00 level has been tested twice as support in the last four weeks. We're not suggesting new plays. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $44.82
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 28.05 chg: +0.05 stop: 27.49 *new*

The lack of upward momentum in EBAY as it struggles under resistance near $29.00 and its 100-dma is making us increasingly more cautious. The technical picture is decaying pretty fast. We are suggesting that conservative traders exit for a gain right here. We're going to raise our stop loss to $27.49. We're not suggesting new positions. Currently our suggested plan is to sell part of the position at $28.75 and the rest at $29.90.

Picked on August 24 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 28.90 change: -0.37 stop: 27.65

ELK didn't move much today but the stock traded a lot of volume. That might be a sign of a short-term top. More conservative traders should seriously consider taking some (or all) of their money off the table right here. ELK's next move looks like it could be a retracement toward the $27.90-28.00 region. We're not suggesting new plays. Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Knight Cap. Grp - NITE - cls: 18.18 chg: +0.07 stop: 16.74 *new*

NITE resisted some early morning profit taking and managed to rebound back toward the $18.50 region. The bounce from its intraday lows can be counted as relative strength but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're raising our stop loss to $16.74. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $17.36
Change since picked: + 0.98
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Regal Beloite - RBC - close: 44.42 change: -0.19 stop: 42.49

There is no change from our RBC new play description on Wednesday. We're still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $45.00 level. Our suggested trigger to go long is at $45.11. If triggered our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 291 thousand

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SafeNet Inc. - SFNT - close: 18.43 chg: -0.37 stop: 17.89

SFNT continues to slip back toward its four-week trendline of support (higher lows). We're waiting for a breakout over resistance near $19.50. Our suggested entry point to go long is at $19.60. More aggressive traders might want to try a higher-risk entry on a bounce near $18.00. If triggered our target is the $22.00 level. More conservative traders may still want to wait for a rally over $20.00 before opening plays.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 300 thousand

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United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.00 chg: -0.89 stop: 61.99

It looks like our readers might get another chance to buy the dip (or bounce). We would wait and watch for a bounce from the $62.50 level or the $62.00 level as a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $66 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. Be aware that some of UTX's management will be speaking at a conference on September 15th.

Picked on September 10 at $63.34
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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WebEx Comm. - WEBX - close: 37.95 chg: -0.54 stop: 34.99

WEBX experienced a little bit of profit taking today but shares were bouncing higher into the closing bell. We remain bullish but traders have a choice to either go long at current levels or wait for a potential dip towards the $37 region. Our target is the $42.50-44.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $38.49
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.17 chg: -0.19 stop: 36.65 *new*

HRL has been stuck in a relatively tight trading range for the last seven days in a row. We would expect a breakout (either direction) relatively soon. Market reaction to tomorrow's CPI report may be the catalyst the stock needs to move. We are not going to suggest new positions at this time however one strategy that might work would be to short a breakdown under Thursday's low (35.98) and use a stop loss at $36.51. Our target remains the $35.00-34.50 range. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $36.65 (breakeven).

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - cls: 23.49 change: -0.97 stop: 26.05 *new*

Thursday saw crude oil and natural gas futures turn lower and that put new pressure on the energy stocks. Shares of PTEN lost 3.9% on strong volume, which is a good sign for our short play. We're lowering our stop loss to $26.05. Our target is the $22.75-22.50 range. Remember, our biggest risk is probably any escalation between the West and Iran but currently that conflict is in a lull.

Picked on September 10 at $25.28
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Black Box - BBOX - close: 38.93 change: +0.00 stop: 39.05

An afternoon rally attempt in BBOX was enough to breakout over short-term resistance near $39.00 and hit our stop loss at $39.05 closing the play. The stock closed unchanged on the session.

Picked on August 27 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand
 

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