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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 33.23 chg: +0.81 stop: 31.89 *new*

After a week of consolidating sideways shares of AAP finally got back into rally mode. The bullish breakout over $33.00 is good news but AAP is staring right at potential technical resistance at its 100-dma (near 33.56). Another good thing about today's rally was that volume came in above average. We are going to try and reduce our risk by inching up the stop loss to $31.89. Our target remains the $35.80-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report for AAP.

Picked on September 12 at $32.93
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Elk Corp. - ELK - close: 28.85 change: +0.40 stop: 27.95

The market strength helped fuel another bounce in ELK. The stock added 1.4% and hit an intraday high of $29.27. We are still suggesting that readers consider taking profits right here or on another rise toward the $29.25-29.30 range even though our official target is the $29.60-30.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $27.10
Change since picked: + 1.75
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Hovnanian - HOV - close: 28.83 change: -0.05 stop: 27.74

Once again bulls bought the dip in HOV. The stock rallied from its intraday lows but could not generate enough momentum to breakout over the descending 100-dma. We are still on the sidelines awaiting a breakout over $30.00. Our suggested entry point is a trigger at $30.11. If we're triggered at $30.11 our target is the $34-35 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 39.51 chg: +0.23 stop: 38.24

IGT did post a gain on Wednesday but we were unimpressed. Volume came in below average and the stock pared its gains by the closing bell. We would consider a bounce from $39 and/or its 10-dma as a potential entry point but more conservative traders may still want to wait for a move over $40.32 before considering positions. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Regal Beloite - RBC - close: 44.89 change: +0.73 stop: 42.49

RBC added another 1.6% with volume rising on the move. Today's gain was a nice follow through on yesterday's intraday bullish reversal. We are still suggesting that readers wait for a new move over $45.25 before initiating new positions. Our target on RBC is the $49.00-50.00 range.

Picked on September 15 at $45.11
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 291 thousand

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United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.90 chg: -0.25 stop: 61.99

Dow-component UTX did not make much progress today in spite of the DJIA climbing toward new multi-year highs. Shares of UTX experienced an early morning rally that stalled out. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to adjust their stops closer to the $63 level. Our target is the $66.00 level.

Picked on September 10 at $63.34
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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WebEx Comm. - WEBX - close: 38.69 chg: -0.03 stop: 35.74

Tech stocks led the market higher on Wednesday with the NASDAQ Composite rising 1.3% and the INX Internet index adding 1.25%. Yet shares of WEBX consolidated sideways and actually closed in the red. It seems that the stock's upward momentum is struggling a bit under the $40 level. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target remains the $42.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is very positive with a bullish triangle breakout buy signal.

Picked on September 12 at $38.49
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Charlotte Russe - CHIC - close: 26.27 chg: -0.28 stop: 27.05

CHIC produced another failed rally near $27.00 on Wednesday and shares failed to participate in the market's rally, which is definitely a bearish sign. We are waiting for a breakdown under support. Chart readers will note that technical support at its rising 50-dma has climbed to $25.93, which adds additional support to the $26.00 level. We are going to adjust our trigger to short the stock from $25.65 to $25.75, which is under the September 18th low. If triggered our target is the $22.10-22.00 range, which is just above rising technical support at the 200-dma. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 6.9% of CHIC's 22.2 million-share float.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Commercial Metals - CMC - close: 20.37 chg: -0.11 stop: 21.55

CMC also displayed relative weakness on Wednesday with a 0.5% decline instead of joining most of the market in a widespread rally. Shares of CMC are now inching closer and closer to a breakdown under support at the $20.00 level. Our suggested entry point for shorts is at $19.90. If triggered our target is the $17.50-17.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.17 chg: +0.50 stop: 36.51 *new*

Hmm... we fail to see what news for HRL could have inspired the gap open higher this morning. The stock opened at $35.92 and rallied past potential resistance at $36.00 and its 100-dma. We are not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. We're inching our stop down to $36.51.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Tessera Tech. - TSRA - close: 32.32 chg: +1.07 stop: 33.01

We are facing a potential loss in TSRA. Yesterday the stock broke down under support near $31.00 and its 50-dma and hit our trigger to short it at $30.95. Unfortunately, the decline was only intraday and TSRA has bounced back by the closing bell on Tuesday. Now, with a relatively bullish market led by tech stocks, shares of TSRA have added 3.4% on rising volume. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to cut their losses. We're not going to give up just yet. Here's why... first of all TSRA still has a significant trendline of resistance and TSRA would need to breakout past the $32.50 region to push past this trendline. Second, the semiconductor sector, as indicated by the SOX index, under performed the market today. You may want to inch the stop loss down closer toward the $32.50 level and that trendline of resistance. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a new relative low under the 200-dma would look like a new entry point for shorts. FYI: Readers should note that the latest (August) data puts short interest at 11.7% of the stock's 42.8 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and makes this a higher-risk play.

Picked on September 19 at $30.95
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Precision Castparts - PCP - cls: 61.49 chg: +3.06 stop: 58.05

We are dropping PCP as a bearish candidate. It was our plan to short a breakdown under support near $55.00 but the decline never occurred. Instead shares have soared from the intraday low at its exponential 200-dma on Friday to a bullish breakout over the $60 level. Our trigger to open positions at $54.95 was not touched.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 978 thousand
 

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