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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 33.51 chg: -0.69 stop: 31.89

AAP experienced some profit taking on Wednesday with a dip back toward $33.50 and its 100-dma. The overall pattern continues to look bullish as AAP is climbing in the wake of its rival AZO, which is soaring. We are not suggesting new positions in AAP at this time. Our target remains the $35.80-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report for AAP.

Picked on September 12 at $32.93
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Hovnanian - HOV - close: 30.33 change: -0.98 stop: 27.99

After three days of solid gains shares of HOV experienced some profit taking with a 3.1% loss on above average volume. The pull back is not too surprising and the good news is that shares stalled near broken resistance and what should be support at the $30.00 level. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on September 25 at $30.11
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 09/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 41.55 chg: +0.81 stop: 38.95

This morning brought some excitement to shares of IGT. Before the opening bell the stock was upgraded and IGT spiked to $42.34 this morning. As the afternoon wore on and it became more obvious that the DJIA was not going to hit a new high traders chose to do some profit taking in IGT. The stock closed with a 1.98% gain on strong volume, which is a bullish sign. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $57 target.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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WebEx Comm. - WEBX - close: 39.82 chg: +1.05 stop: 37.45

It has been a rocky ride in WEBX the last few days with the back and forth swings. This morning the stock took off again after one analyst firm reiterated their buy rating. WEBX may also benefit from the end of quarter profit taking. Volume on today's gain was strong, which is normally a good sign. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target remains the $42.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is very positive with a bullish triangle breakout buy signal.

Picked on September 12 at $38.49
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Commercial Metals - CMC - close: 20.38 chg: +0.46 stop: 21.05

Yesterday the metals and steel stocks soared after Reliance Steel (RS) issued positive earnings guidance on Tuesday morning. Yet Tuesday night steel maker Worthington Industries (WOR) missed its earnings estimates and issued cautious guidance going forward. The WOR news seemed to throw a wet blanket on the steel-sector rebound. CMC was an exception and the stock added another 2.3% and broke out above resistance at the $20.00 level. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses following today's breakout. We suspect that shares will turn lower soon so instead of exiting early consider tightening your stop toward today's high near $20.64. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $19.90
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.32 chg: +0.19 stop: 36.51

HRL is still consolidating sideways. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here since we're starting to see more of a bullish tilt to a few of the short-term technicals.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Ladish - LDSH - close: 27.36 change: -2.16 stop: 30.01 *new*

Wednesday proved to be an ugly day for LDSH. The stock plunged to a 7.3% loss on strong volume. We don't see any specific news to account for the sell-off. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table if you entered near $29.65. Our target remains the $25.50-25.00 range although we would not be surprised to see a bounce from the September lows near $27. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $30.01. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 6.5% of LDSH's 14 million-share float. That's not a very big float and might be a reason for concern.

Picked on September 25 at $29.65
Change since picked: - 2.29
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 270 thousand

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Linear Tech. - LLTC - close: 31.65 chg: -0.24 stop: 32.66

The trading action in LLTC continues to look bearish. However, we want to warn readers that the SOX, which looks poised to move lower, is also nearing potential support at the bottom of its two-month rising channel. Our target is the $30.10-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 4% of LLTC's 300 million-share float.

Picked on September 25 at $31.79
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.0 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 24.91 chg: +0.01 stop: 26.05

The trading range on NTLI is narrowing and the pattern looks like a bearish pennant. We would wait for a move under $24.80 or $24.75 before opening new positions. Our target is the $21.00-20.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit near $23.00. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $25.01
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
 

Closed Long Plays

United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.14 chg: -0.47 stop: 61.99

The overall pattern in UTX remains moderately bullish but the relative weakness today looks like a clue to get out. More aggressive traders may want to let it ride with a stop loss under short-term support at $62.00. We see today's relative weakness and the bearish turn to some of its short-term technicals as a signal to exit early.

Picked on September 10 at $63.34
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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