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Long Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 33.65 chg: +0.14 stop: 31.89

AAP is still bouncing from rising, short-term support at its 10-dma. That's definitely bullish but the stock is looking a bit overbought. We are not suggesting new positions in AAP at this time. Our target remains the $35.80-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report for AAP.

Picked on September 12 at $32.93
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Hovnanian - HOV - close: 30.10 change: -0.23 stop: 27.99

HOV experienced another round of profit taking but you'll notice that traders bought the dip near its 10-dma in the $29.50 region. We would use a bounce from here as a new entry point to go long the stock. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stop loss. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on September 25 at $30.11
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 09/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 41.66 chg: +0.11 stop: 38.95

Volume eased back toward normal levels on Thursday but IGT is still inching higher. This is probably window dressing so we're a little concerned about what happens next week after the quarter end. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $57 target.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 1.40
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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WebEx Comm. - WEBX - close: 39.98 chg: +0.13 stop: 37.45

WEBX tried to rally higher but ran out of steam at $40.62 and closed back under round-number resistance at the $40 level. We are going to raise our stop loss to $37.95. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target remains the $42.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is very positive with a bullish triangle breakout buy signal.

Picked on September 12 at $38.49
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Commercial Metals - CMC - close: 20.24 chg: -0.14 stop: 21.05

The bounce in shares of CMC is struggling and that's a good sign for us. However, we would wait for a new decline under $19.90 or $19.70 before considering new short plays. More conservative traders may still want to exit early and cut their losses quickly. We suspect that shares will turn lower soon so instead of exiting early consider tightening your stop toward Wednesday's high near $20.64. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $19.90
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.20 chg: -0.12 stop: 36.51

There is no change from our previous updates on HRL. The stock is still trading sideways under resistance at $36.50 and volume is sliding lower and lower. We expect to see a breakout relatively soon the question is "which way"? One could easily argue that HRL is building a base with its multiple bounces in the $35.20-35.50 region. Thus traders may want to exit early anywhere near $35.30.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Ladish - LDSH - close: 28.31 change: +0.95 stop: 30.01

LDSH produced a sharp oversold bounce this morning but the rally quickly stalled and shares churned sideways in a narrow range the rest of the day. You might notice that the bounce was almost half of yesterday's decline. Our target remains the $25.50-25.00 range although we would not be surprised to see a bounce from the September lows near $27. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 6.5% of LDSH's 14 million-share float. That's not a very big float and might be a reason for concern.

Picked on September 25 at $29.65
Change since picked: - 1.34
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 270 thousand

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Linear Tech. - LLTC - close: 31.96 chg: +0.31 stop: 32.66

We don't see a lot of changes from yesterday's update on LLTC. The overall pattern remains bearish but today's bounce did put a very short-term bullish up tick in some of the technical indicators. We remain cautious with the SOX still trading inside its two-month rising channel. Our target for LLTC is the $30.10-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 4% of LLTC's 300 million-share float.

Picked on September 25 at $31.79
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.0 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 25.26 chg: +0.35 stop: 26.05

Before the opening bell an analyst firm started coverage on NTLI with an "over weight" rating. This sparked the morning rally and the stock gapped open higher at $25.23 and quickly hit an intraday peak of $25.73. Yet 30-minutes after the open the excitement began to fade and shares slipped lower the rest of the session. Volume didn't even come close to hitting the daily average. We would wait for a move under $24.80 or $24.75 before opening new positions. Our target is the $21.00-20.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit near $23.00. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $25.01
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 11/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

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