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Long Play Updates

Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 41.21 chg: -0.12 stop: 39.49

IGT is still sliding lower and we still expect a dip back toward the $40 level. We'd wait for a bounce near $40 before considering new positions. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Commercial Metals - CMC - close: 19.89 chg: -0.33 stop: 20.76

Steel, metals, mining and anything material-related had a rough day on Tuesday. Shares of CMC lost 1.6% and broke down from its four-day trading range. This looks like a new entry point to short the stock. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $19.90
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 35.36 chg: -0.67 stop: 36.51

Prepare to exit. HRL displayed relative weakness on Tuesday with a 1.85% decline. We did not see any specific news behind the move but noted the MACD on its daily chart produced a new sell signal. The low today was $35.32 and our target is the $35.30 mark. We expect HRL to hit our target tomorrow.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 1.29
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Ladish - LDSH - close: 28.56 change: +0.84 stop: 30.01

Lack of follow through on LDSH's late September sell-off is starting to turn the technical indicators back towards bullish signals. Lack of follow through on yesterday's decline might be a warning sign. We'd hesitate about opening new positions with LDSH given today's strong rebound. We suspect that today's strength was due to last night's news about the new labor contract LDSH signed. We are aiming for the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart is more pessimistic with an $18 target. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report. More conservative traders may want to pass on this play or be extra cautious. We have two reasons for concern. First LDSH might have produced a (bullish) double-bottom pattern with the September lows. Second, the stock's short interest was last seen at 6.5% of the stock's 14 million-share float, which is a relatively high amount and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on September 25 at $29.65
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 270 thousand

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Linear Tech. - LLTC - close: 31.07 chg: -0.21 stop: 32.41

Negative earnings news from MRVL weighed on the semiconductor sector. The SOX index broke down from its two-month bullish channel. Shares of LLTC lost 0.67%. We remain bearish here. Our target is the $30.10-30.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $25 target. Our more aggressive target (if we had one) would be the July lows near $28. We do not want to hold over LLTC's earnings report due on Oct. 17th. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 4% of LLTC's 300 million-share float.

Picked on September 25 at $31.79
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.0 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Hovnanian - HOV - close: 28.88 change: -0.73 stop: 28.45

We are throwing in the towel on HOV. The rally in housing stocks is struggling and the weakness in HOV today (-2.4%) has produced a new MACD sell signal. Volume on today's loss was strong, which is bearish. There is still a chance that HOV might bounce near $28.60-28.70 given its 21-dma and 100-dma but we're not counting on it. It's time to exit now!

Picked on September 25 at $30.11
Change since picked: - 1.23
Earnings Date 09/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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