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Long Play Updates

TD Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 19.52 change: +0.46 stop: 18.23

The rally in financials continued on Wednesday and the broker-dealer stocks really out performed with a 2.2% gain in the XBD index. Shares of AMTD turned in a strong session breaking out past the 200-dma, resistance near $19.25 and adding 2.4%. Our only complaint would be volume, which came in below average. Our suggested trigger to go long was at $19.26 so the play is now open. Our target is the $21.00 mark. We do expect some resistance near $20.00, at least on the initial test. We don't want to hold over the October 24th earnings report.

Picked on October 04 at $19.26
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 41.84 chg: +0.76 stop: 39.49

The market rally on Wednesday helped lift IGT toward the recent highs. Shares posted a 1.8% gain but volume came in below average. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 1.58
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Swift Transport. - SWFT - close: 25.06 change: +1.18 stop: 22.19

Transportation stocks turned in a strong session on Wednesday with the Dow Transportation index rising 2.2% and breaking out past the 4500 level. This helped SWFT rally with a 4.9% gain on strong volume. Shares of SWFT broke out past resistance at the $25.00 level but saw some profit taking after nearing the $26 level and its 200-dma. The $24.00 level looks like it should offer some short-term support. Our target is the $26.75-27.00 range. FYI: The company's recent earnings guidance was not that positive yet the stock failed to decline on the bad news. That suggests that any bad news may already be in the stock price.

Picked on October 03 at $23.88
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cerner - CERN - close: 45.48 change: +0.40 stop: 46.05

The NWX networking index added 1.9% on Wednesday but shares of CERN under performed its peers with a 0.8% gain. The stock remains above support at the $44 level so we're still sitting on the sidelines. Our suggested trigger to short the stock is at $43.90. If triggered our target is the $40.25-40.00 range. Please note we do not want to hold over the October 19th earnings report, which doesn't give us a lot of time. FYI: Traders should also note that the latest (September) data puts short interest at 14% of the stock's 64.2 million-share float. That is a relatively high-degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: thousand

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Commercial Metals - CMC - close: 20.15 chg: +0.32 stop: 20.76

The widespread market rally on Wednesday helped CMC manage a 1.6% bounce that erased yesterday's losses. We are not suggesting new positions with the stock above $20.00. At this point we'd wait for a new decline under $19.80 before considering new positions. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 21 at $19.90
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Linear Tech. - LLTC - close: 31.97 chg: +0.90 stop: 32.41

Red alert! The market's widespread rally was led by tech stocks and the SOX index produced a 1.9% bounce following yesterday's weakness. LLTC out performed its peers with a 2.89% gain and shares look poised to breakout over support/resistance at the $32.00 level. More conservative traders should strongly consider exiting immediately to limit any losses. If the markets, especially the NASDAQ, sees any follow through higher tomorrow we expect to be stopped out at $32.41.

Picked on September 25 at $31.79
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.0 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 35.87 chg: +0.51 stop: 36.51

Target achieved. HRL's dramatic sell-off yesterday produced a little bit of follow through this morning before traders stepped in to buy the dip. The stock's intraday low was $35.16. Our target was the $35.30 level.

Picked on August 31 at $36.65
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 11/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Ladish - LDSH - close: 30.15 change: +1.60 stop: 30.01

We have been stopped out of LDSH at $30.01. The market's strength on Wednesday helped LDSH climb throughout the session and shares managed to breakout over short-term resistance at the $30.00 mark.

Picked on September 25 at $29.65
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 270 thousand

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NVIDIA - NVDA - close: 31.08 change: +2.78 stop: 30.26

Ouch! We were expecting a bounce in NVDA but today's move looks like a short squeeze given the sharp spike higher this morning. There were multiple fires fueling the surge in NVDA. First, there were new, positive analyst comments for the company and an upwardly revised price target. Second, there were rumors that Intel (INTC) might be considering a takeover bid for NVDA. Third, the widespread tech-led rally just poured gas on the fire. We have been stopped out at $30.26. For the record the latest (September) data shows short interest at 4.4% of NVDA's 330 million-share float.

Picked on October 03 at $28.30
Change since picked: + 2.78
Earnings Date 11/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million
 

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