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Long Play Updates

ACADIA - ACAD - close: 8.85 chg: -0.12 stop: 7.99

The rally in biotech stocks paused on Friday. After a strong week the group was due for some profit taking. Shares of ACAD dipped 1.3% right back to our trigger/entry point at $8.85. We see the pull back as another entry point since broken resistance near $8.80 should act as new support. Currently we do have a relatively wide stop loss to give ACAD room to maneuver but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops and reduce your risk. Our target is the $9.95-10.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart remains bearish and looks like it will be for a while.

Picked on October 05 at $ 8.85
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/10/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 225 thousand

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TD Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 19.20 change: -0.41 stop: 18.23

The rally in AMTD hit a speed bump on Friday. Shares gapped open lower and closed with a 2% loss thanks to Bank of America downgrading the stock to a "neutral" and cutting their earnings estimates. Fortunately, traders bought the dip near technical support at AMTD's 10-dma and 200-dma. We see the pull back as a new entry point to go long the stock although it may be worth noting that the weekly chart shows the rally failing at its 50-week moving average. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stops toward the $18.50 region. We're going to leave ours at $18.23 for now. Our target is the $21.00 mark. We do expect some resistance near $20.00, at least on the initial test. We don't want to hold over the October 24th earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $29 target.

Picked on October 04 at $19.26
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million

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Anheuser-Busch - BUD - close: 47.08 change: -0.15 stop: 46.85

Hmmm... by Wednesday's close it looked like BUD was poised to breakout from its four-week trading range with a bounce near support at the bottom of its rising channel and its 100-dma. BUD never saw any follow through on that rebound and given Friday's relative weakness it looks like the stock may be headed lower. Shares traded under the bottom of its trading range but managed to pare its losses by the closing bell. We couldn't find any specific news to account for BUD's gap down on Friday morning. We're going to stick to our plan to go long with a trigger at $48.21 for now. Yet nimble traders may want to consider going short if BUD trades under $46.50. If we are triggered at $48.21 our target is the $49.90-51.00 range.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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IAC/InterActive - IACI - close: 29.65 change: -0.02 stop: 28.69

We have nothing new to report on for IACI. The stock continues to look bullish given Wednesday's breakout through the top of its multi-week trading range. Friday's pull back was pretty mild with traders buying the dip near $29.30. This remains a potential entry point to go long the stock. Normally we would expect resistance at the $30.00 level but if you look at the stock's weekly chart you can see that the line of resistance is about $31.50. We're setting a target in the $31.40-31.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on October 04 at $29.73
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - close: 42.33 chg: -0.14 stop: 39.95*new*

IGT continues to look bullish with its relatively steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Shares hit new multi-year highs this past week. We would wait for a dip towards the 10-dma (near 41.50) or the $41.00 level before considering new positions. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $39.95. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 2.07
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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McAfee - MFE - close: 25.50 chg: -0.22 stop: 23.99

MFE did not escape the market-wide profit taking on Friday. Shares closed with a 0.8% loss, which was worse than its peers in the GSO software index (-0.13%). However, Friday's session is probably more bullish than it looks. Traders stepped in to buy the dip at $25.10, which is close enough to count as a test of broken resistance at $25.00 as new support. Thus we see this as a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on October 05 at $25.20
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 20.18 chg: +0.08 stop: 18.69

PDLI managed to out perform its peers in the biotech sector and the broader market indices by posting a gain on Friday. Last week's bullish breakout over resistance at the $20 level is very positive but one could argue that PDLI is short-term overbought and due for a dip. We remain optimistic and would continue to open new long positions with PDLI above $20.00 or maybe on a bounce from the $19.50 level. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stop loss. Our target is the $22.25-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on October 05 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Swift Transport. - SWFT - cls: 24.99 chg: -0.15 stop: 22.95

Transportation stocks experienced some profit taking on Friday. Some market pundits were suggesting it was due to the UPS announcement on Thursday night that UPS was cutting jobs. We believe Friday's weakness in the sector was plain and simple profit taking after a strong week. SWFT held up relatively well considering the big moves it made on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall the pattern looks bullish with its double-bottom but short-term we expect SWFT to dip back toward the $24.50-24.00 region. Wait for the bounce before considering new positions. Our target is the $26.75-27.00 range. FYI: The company's recent earnings guidance was not that positive yet the stock failed to decline on the bad news. That suggests that any bad news may already be in the stock price.

Picked on October 03 at $23.88
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

None
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Cerner - CERN - close: 46.46 change: +0.45 stop: 46.05

We are giving up on CERN as a bearish candidate - for now. The stock's bounce from support near $44.00 has extended into a four-day rally. Short-term technicals are turning bullish. The stock does still have overhead resistance in the $47.50-48.00 region but given the market's bullish attitude we're not going to wait around. It was our strategy to short the stock with a trigger at $43.90 but CERN never hit our trigger.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: thousand
 

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