Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 31.06 change: +0.02 stop: 29.99 *new*
ACI did not make a lot of progress on Friday but the pattern remains bullish. Traders were quick to buy the dip at $30.10 on Friday morning. ACI's immediate challenge is potential resistance at its descending 50-dma near $31.65. We're not suggesting new positions because we're running out of time. ACI is due to report earnings on Friday morning. Thus we plan to exit on Thursday at the closing bell to avoid holding over the report. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $29.99 in an effort to reduce our risk.
Picked on October 10 at $30.32
Anheuser-Busch - BUD - close: 48.01 change: +0.32 stop: 46.85
BUD surprised us on Friday with some relative strength. The stock added 0.6% on strong volume. The move produced a mini-bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Yet shares remain under resistance near the top of its trading range in the $48.00-48.15 region and its 50-dma (48.04). We would wait for another move over $48.21 or $48.25 before considering new long positions. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward Friday's lows near $47.40. Our target is the $49.90-51.00 range.
Picked on October 10 at $48.21
D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 23.89 change: -0.91 stop: 22.99
Homebuilders tumbled on Friday. Thursday night Centex (CTX) issued a big earnings warning and traders rushed to lock in profits in the group after a strong week. The DJUSHB home construction index lost just over 4%. Shares of DHI fell 3.6%. We are still sitting on the sidelines with DHI waiting for a breakout over resistance. Our strategy will still work so we're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $25.51. If triggered at $25.51 our target is the $29.00-30.00 range although more conservative traders may want to exit at the 200-dma currently near 28.38.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
IAC/InterActive - IACI - close: 29.50 change: +0.07 stop: 28.69
IACI continues to bounce but the bulls didn't make much progress on Friday. The technical picture is mixed but shorter-term technicals are suggesting the next move is higher. We are a little bit skeptical although the bounce from Wednesday's low does look like a new entry point. The lack of volume continues to make us nervous. We're going to suggest new positions but traders should be extra cautious about monitoring your stop loss. Our target is the $31.40-31.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.
Picked on October 04 at $29.73
Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 42.00 chg: -0.50 stop: 40.95
Warning! Upward momentum in IGT is stalling. The stock's trading this past week has a bearish tilt to it. IGT looks poised to move back down toward the $41.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. If you don't want to endure the pull back then consider exiting early right now. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.
Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 40.27 chg: +0.15 stop: 38.75 *new*
Shares of IR held up pretty well on Friday after the company announced that it was protesting a $217 million bill from the IRS. The stock has been trading sideways in an 80-cent range for a week now. Most of the longer-term technicals are bullish but the lack of progress higher this past week has caused trouble with the short-term indicators. We remain optimistic but traders have a choice. They can open positions now, wait for a breakout over its 200-dma near $40.75, or look for a dip/bounce near the $39.00-39.50 region. Bear in mind that we do not want to hold over the October 27th earnings report. Our short-term target is the $43.00-43.50 range. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $38.75.
Picked on October 08 at $40.20
Kinetic Concepts - KCI - cls: 32.58 chg: +0.49 stop: 31.49
We were beginning to worry about the rally in KCI after last Wednesday's pull back. Fortunately, the stock found support near old resistance at the $32.00 level. Volume has been pretty low this past week but that's actually what we would want to see on a consolidation lower. Traders can use Friday's bounce as a new entry point or wait for another move over $33.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $32 region. Our target is the $37.50-38.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.
Picked on October 08 at $33.35
Acc. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 35.08 chg: -0.77 stop: 34.95
LEND almost completely erased Thursday's bounce. The relative weakness is not a good sign but we're not going to give up yet, especially since the play is not even open yet. LEND is trading near the bottom of its four-week trading range. Aggressive traders might want to buy a bounce from here. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance near $37.00. Our trigger to go long is at $37.16. If triggered our target is the $42.00-42.50 range. Please note that there is potential resistance at the bottom of its gap down at $38.71, and potential resistance at $40.00. The P&F chart is positive with a $50 target. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Palm Inc. - PALM - close: 16.26 chg: +0.04 stop: 14.99
Caution! The trading in PALM on Friday looks bearish with a sharp reversal from its intraday highs. Odds are good that the stock will dip towards the $16.00-15.85 region, which was resistance in the past. A bounce near $16 could be used as a new entry point to go long. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range near its 200-dma. More conservative traders might also want to use a stop loss closer to Thursday's low (15.51). We would consider this a higher-risk play. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $20 target.
Picked on October 12 at $16.22
PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 20.38 chg: -0.14 stop: 18.69
Biotech stocks consolidated lower on Friday and shares of PDLI joined them. The stock is consolidating sideways between the $20.00-20.60 region. The fact that it's holding above the $20 level is a good sign. We remain bullish and could continue to suggest new positions with the stock above $20.00. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward last weeks low (19.95). Our target is the $22.25-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.
Picked on October 05 at $20.11
Titanium Metals - TIE - close: 28.17 chg: +0.48 stop: 25.99 *new*
The rally in TIE is starting to get a little long in the tooth. Shares just posted their eight gain in a row on Friday. We're happy with the relative strength but we suspect that traders will do some profit taking once TIE hits the 100-dma near $28.70. Thus we would not consider new bullish positions at this time. Any consolidation in TIE would likely pull the stock back toward the $27 region. A bounce from $27 could be used as a new entry point. We are adjusting the stop loss to $25.99. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range. We don't want to hold over the October 23rd earnings report (still an unconfirmed date).
Picked on October 11 at $27.01
W&T Offshore - WTI - close: 30.99 chg: +1.46 stop: 28.35
Our new play in WTI is now open. Oil stocks continued to rally on Friday and shares of WTI soared 4.9% to breakout over resistance at the $30 level and its 50-dma. We had suggested a trigger to go long the stock at $30.21 so the play is open. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range. Readers can choose to chase the breakout here or wait for a potential pull back toward the $30 level. Broken resistance at $30 should now act as new support. We will be watching the 100-dma as potential resistance. Please note we do not want to hold over the November earnings report.
Picked on October 13 at $30.21
Short Play Updates
Closed Long Plays
ACADIA - ACAD - close: 10.10 chg: +0.29 stop: 8.85
Target achieved. Actually ACAD has surpassed our target in the $9.95-10.00 range. The stock shot higher on Friday morning to an intraday high of $10.33 before paring its gains. The play is closed. We'd keep an eye on the stock to see if shares make it past technical resistance at its 200-dma still overhead.
Picked on October 05 at $ 8.85
Closed Short Plays