Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 31.58 change: -0.55 stop: 30.99 *new*
Time is almost up for our ACI play. The stock continued to pull back on Wednesday but shares did hold above their simple 50-dma. We're planning to exit tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid holding over ACI's earnings report on Friday morning. We're going to raise our stop loss to $30.99.
Picked on October 10 at $30.32
BJ Services - BJS - close: 29.65 change: -0.48 stop: 28.99
BJS tried to rally this morning as crude oil turned higher but oil futures reversed early on and shares of BJS followed them lower. We remain on the sidelines as we wait for a breakout over the $30.50 level. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $30.55. If triggered our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. We do not want to hold over the October 31st earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Be advised that BJS is an oil services company and the oil services sector tends to be more volatile than the rest of the oil sector.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Anheuser-Busch - BUD - close: 48.68 chg: +0.08 stop: 47.75*new*
BUD continued to tick higher on Wednesday. The overall pattern is bullish but we're cautious given the recent volatility. We're raising our stop loss again this time to $47.75. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.90-51.00 range. Remember we don't want to hold over the late October earnings report.
Picked on October 10 at $48.21
D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 23.39 change: -0.15 stop: 22.99
DHI continues to show relative weakness. The homebuilders failed to show any strength on the better than expected housing starts this morning. Investors seemed to focus on the sliding building permits, which were down over 6% to a five-year low. We are preparing to drop DHI as a bullish candidate but we're waiting to see if shares bounce from support near $23.00 and its 50-dma and 100-dma. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to open positions and buy the stock at $25.51. If triggered at $25.51 our target is the $29.00-30.00 range although more conservative traders may want to exit at the 200-dma currently near 28.38.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 29.90 chg: +0.04 stop: 27.99
A decline in crude oil futures weighed on the energy sector. Shares of DNR still managed to close in the green but the stock produced another failed rally under its 100-dma this morning. It looks like the next move will be lower toward the $29.00-29.50 region where we'd be tempted to buy a dip. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high above $30.46 before considering new positions. Our target is the $33.00-34.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.
Picked on October 16 at $30.26
IAC/InterActive - IACI - cls: 29.69 chg: +0.18 stop: 28.95 *new*
IACI displayed some relative strength today in spite of Yahoo (YHOO) leading the Internet sector lower. We are still not suggesting new positions in IACI and we're adjusting the stop loss to $28.95 to reduce our risk. Our target is the $31.40-31.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.
Picked on October 04 at $29.73
Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 41.57 chg: -0.00 stop: 40.95
IGT was unchanged on Wednesday. The stock churned sideways but we're concerned that this morning's failed rally near $42 only confirms that the next move is likely to be lower. We are suggesting that readers strongly consider an early exit right here. The only reason we're keeping the play open is due to the upward trajectory on the major averages. If the market indices bounce higher tomorrow then IGT might follow suit. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.
Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 40.49 chg: -0.41 stop: 38.75
IR was just one of many stocks that spiked higher at the opening bell only to reverse course a minutes later. The move today looks like a bearish reversal and the close under the 200-dma doesn't help our bullish cause. We would expect a dip to $40 at a minimum and potentially a dip toward $39.00. Don't forget that we do not want to hold over the October 27th earnings report. Our short-term target is the $43.00-43.50 range.
Picked on October 08 at $40.20
Kinetic Concepts - KCI - cls: 33.25 chg: +0.57 stop: 31.49
KCI continued to bounce higher and shares are now nearing potential resistance at the early October highs. Our only concern with today's 1.7% bounce was the lack of volume. Volume came in very low today and that doesn't add a lot of strength or conviction behind today's move. We're raising our stop loss to $31.79, which is under the recent lows. Our target is the $37.50-38.00 range. We do not want to hold over the October 27th earnings report that was announced today.
Picked on October 08 at $33.35
Palm Inc. - PALM - close: 16.12 chg: -0.41 stop: 15.49
The NASDAQ was the under performer today compared to the DJIA and the S&P 500. Thanks to weakness in the semiconductors most of the tech sector trended lower. Shares of PALM dropped almost 2.5% as it consolidated back toward the $16.00 level. We would hesitate to open new positions at this time. Today's session almost looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is typically seen as a bearish reversal. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $16 level. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We would consider this a higher-risk play. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $20 target.
Picked on October 12 at $16.22
PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 20.38 chg: +0.12 stop: 18.69
The biotech sector index didn't move much after yesterday's pop on the ICOS merger news. Shares of PDLI failed to move as well although the stock continues to look like it wants to breakout higher. There is a very small trend of higher lows as it consolidations sideways above $20.00. We would still consider PDLI a bullish candidate with the stock over $20.00 but traders can choose to try and time an entry near $20.00 or wait for a new relative high over $20.60. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward last weeks low (19.95). Our target is the $22.25-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.
Picked on October 05 at $20.11
W&T Offshore - WTI - close: 32.11 chg: +0.26 stop: 29.75
WTI displayed relative strength on Wednesday. Most of the energy sector turned lower after a sharp reversal in crude oil futures. Shares of WTI managed to consolidate sideways with a bullish twist higher at the end of the day. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early as WTI nears $33.00 since the stock may have resistance at its 100-dma and 200-ema. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range.
Picked on October 13 at $30.21
Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 26.90 change: -0.43 stop: 25.95
Trading in ZEUS took a bearish tone on Wednesday. The stock produced another failed rally under the $28.00 level. Odds are growing significantly that ZEUS will see a pull back toward the $26.00 region. It depends on potential support at the 50-dma near $26.65 and the 10-dma near $26.80. We would not suggest new positions at this time. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range, which is where we expect the stock to encounter resistance with its 200-dma and 100-dma. We do not want to hold over the October 26th (unconfirmed) earnings report.
Picked on October 15 at $27.34
Short Play Updates
Closed Long Plays
Newfield Expl. - NFX - close: 38.31 chg: -1.37 stop: 37.99
We have been stopped out of NFX at $37.99. Investor reaction to the news last night that NFX was lowering its FY2006 production outlook sent shares of NFX spiking lower. The stock gapped open at $38.99 and dipped under the $38 level.
Picked on October 16 at $40.26
Titanium Metals - TIE - close: 28.79 chg: -0.42 stop: 27.99
Target achieved. Shares of TIE spiked higher this morning and traded to $30.17 before reversing lower. Our target was the $29.90-30.00 range. If you failed to exit with us we'd suggest caution. The move today looks like a short-term top/failed rally pattern.
Picked on October 11 at $27.01
Closed Short Plays