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Long Play Updates

BJ Services - BJS - close: 30.59 change: +0.94 stop: 28.99

Our bullish play on BJS is now open. The big news from OPEC today was that the Saudis had approved of OPEC's plan to cut one million barrels of production a day to stop the slide in oil prices. This lifted crude oil futures and the energy stocks followed. The OIX oil index rose 2% and the OSX oil services index rose 3.5%. Shares of BJS rallied 3.17% to breakout over resistance near $30.50. We had a suggested trigger to buy the stock at $30.55 so the play is open. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. Be advised that the $32.00 level and the 50-dma (near $32) might offer some overhead resistance. We do not want to hold over the October 31st earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Please note that BJS is an oil services company and the oil services sector tends to be more volatile than the rest of the oil sector.

Picked on October 19 at $30.55
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 23.48 change: +0.24 stop: 22.99

Homebuilders did manage a bounce today but the one-week trend is down. We're still cautious on the group and DHI. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from the $23.00 level in DHI since $23.00 has been support in the past. We are not suggesting such a move and continue to suggest readers wait for a breakout higher with our trigger to go long at $25.51. If triggered at $25.51 our target is the $29.00-30.00 range although more conservative traders may want to exit at the 200-dma.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 29.84 chg: -0.06 stop: 27.99

We were a little surprised to see DNR's performance today. Most of the oil stocks were up thanks to the OPEC news and strength in crude oil futures. Shares of DNR just consolidated sideways for the third day in a row. It seems that the culprit behind DNR's failure to rally was company news that it expects third quarter production to be flat thanks in part to delays at its tertiary oil fields in Mississippi. More conservative traders may want to abandon the play for another oil company that is moving higher or consider tightening your stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time although a move over $30.46 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $33.00-34.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on October 16 at $30.26
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 826 thousand

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Intl. Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 41.22 chg: -0.35 stop: 40.95

Double check your stop losses! IGT produced another failed rally near $42.00 and shares look poised to challenge short-term support near $41.00 again (on its way toward $40). More conservative traders may just want to exit early right here. We're not suggesting new plays. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 17 at $40.26
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 39.31 chg: -1.18 stop: 38.75

Warning! We cautioned readers that IR might dip toward the $39.00 level and that's exactly what shares did today. The stock was weak from the start but traders did buy the dip near what should be support near $39.00 midday. Volume came in above average on today's weakness and that's bearish as is the close under $40 and its 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to limit losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the October 27th earnings report.

Picked on October 08 at $40.20
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Kinetic Concepts - KCI - cls: 33.85 chg: +0.60 stop: 31.79

KCI continued to show relative strength with a 1.8% gain and a breakout past the early October highs. Volume is still a challenge but the stock looks poised for more gains. We have noticed that KCI's upward momentum is slower than previously thought so we're adjusting our target from $37.50-38.00 to $36.00-37.00. Be aware that the 100-dma near 36.17 could be overhead resistance. Yesterday we raised our stop loss to $31.79. We do not want to hold over the October 27th earnings report.

Picked on October 08 at $33.35
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Palm Inc. - PALM - close: 16.24 chg: +0.12 stop: 15.49

There is no change from our previous update on PALM. The stock is still consolidating sideways above broken resistance and what should be support at $16.00. We would hesitate to open new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $16 level. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We would consider this a higher-risk play. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $20 target.

Picked on October 12 at $16.22
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 12/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.0 million

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PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 20.41 chg: +0.03 stop: 18.69

PDLI failed to make any progress today in spite of hitting a new five-month high on an intraday basis. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. We would still consider PDLI a bullish candidate with the stock over $20.00 but traders can choose to try and time an entry near $20.00 or wait for a new relative high over $20.60. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward last week's low (19.95). Our target is the $22.25-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on October 05 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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W&T Offshore - WTI - close: 32.97 chg: +0.86 stop: 30.21 *new*

Oil stocks were strong thanks to the OPEC news and a rise in crude oil futures. Shares of WTI broke from its two-day consolidation and added 2.6% although volume came in below average. Shares are challenging resistance near $33.00 and its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma so more conservative traders may want to lock in a gain right here. We're raising our stop loss to breakeven at $30.21. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on October 13 at $30.21
Change since picked: + 2.76
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 534 thousand

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Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 27.45 change: +0.55 stop: 25.95

Steel stocks turned in a decent performance on Thursday. Traders bought the dip in ZEUS near $26.20 and shares rallied for a 4.7% gain from its intraday low. ZEUS closed with a 2% gain over yesterday's close. We would use today's rebound as a new entry point to go long the stock. However, be aware that ZEUS still has overhead resistance near $28.00 and its exponential 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $28 before initiating positions. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range, which is where we expect the stock to encounter resistance with its 200-dma and 100-dma. We do not want to hold over the November 1st earnings report.

Picked on October 15 at $27.34
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 205 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

None
 

Closed Long Plays

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 34.26 change: +2.68 stop: 30.99

Target achieved. Shares of ACI raced higher at the opening bell to trade over the $34.00 level. Eventually the stock closed with a 8.48% gain on strong volume. We were planning to exit today at the close anyway to avoid holding over the company's earnings report tomorrow morning. Our target was the $34.00 level.

Picked on October 10 at $30.32
Change since picked: + 3.94
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Anheuser-Busch - BUD - close: 48.00 chg: -0.68 stop: 47.75

Warning! BUD displayed some relative weakness on Thursday as the stock fell 1.39% and closed back under its 50-dma. We're suggesting an early exit immediately. There is a chance that BUD will bounce from broken resistance and what should be support at the $48.00 level but we're not counting on it. There were a couple of analysts comments today about the company struggling with slower beer sales.

Picked on October 10 at $48.21
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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IAC/InterActive - IACI - cls: 29.74 chg: +0.05 stop: 28.95

Shares of IACI are still creeping higher but the lackluster rally struggled to make it past round-number resistance at the $30.00 mark. More aggressive traders may want to stay long the stock since the trend in tech is still up. We're going to suggest an early exit right here near breakeven. We'd rather free up capital for a stock that is moving.

Picked on October 04 at $29.73
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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