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Long Play Updates

BJ Services - BJS - close: 32.25 change: -0.11 stop: 29.90

We do not see any changes from our previous updates on BJS. The rally in oil stocks paused on Thursday as crude oil futures slipped lower toward $60 a barrel. Traders did buy the dip in BJS at $31.68 but the profit taking may not be over yet. We remain optimistic and continue to target the $33.30-34.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the October 31st earnings report.

Picked on October 19 at $30.55
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Chipotle Mex.Grill - CMG - close: 58.50 chg: +1.55 stop: 53.74

Thursday proved to be another volatile day for CMG. The stock reversed yesterday's weakness and powered to a new relative closing high, up 2.7% on the day. Our short-term target is the $59.90-60.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we plan to exit ahead of the October 31st earnings report.

Picked on October 23 at $56.40
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 900 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 24.50 change: +0.53 stop: 22.99

Homebuilders rallied on Thursday thanks in part to news that new home sales rose an unexpected 5.3% in September. Unfortunately, the news was accompanied by a 9.7% drop in new home prices - the fast decline in over 35 years. Traders chose to focus on the positive and the DJUSHB home construction index rose 1.5%. Shares of DHI added 2.2% on improving but still below average volume. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance near $25.50. We're suggesting a trigger to go long at $25.51.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

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Randgold Res. - GOLD - close: 22.05 chg: -0.30 stop: 20.99

The gold sector turned lower on Thursday in spite of a $9 rise in gold futures toward $600 an ounce. The pull back in shares of GOLD near $22.00 could be used as a new entry point but we'd wait for signs of a bounce first. Our short-term target is the $24.50-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. That only gives us about four trading days. FYI: More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss near $21.50.

Picked on October 25 at $22.35
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 369 thousand

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IAMgoldCorp - IAG - close: 8.68 change: -0.01 stop: 8.29

The rally in IAG this morning didn't last very long. The stock traded to $8.86 before giving back its gains. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but patient traders may want to wait and see if IAG provides a dip (and bounce) near the $8.50 level as a potential entry point. There is potential resistance in the $9.20-9.25 region but our target is the $9.60-9.75 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on October 25 at $ 8.69
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 11/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 572 thousand

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PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 20.67 chg: +0.45 stop: 19.94

Biotech stocks powered higher on Thursday and the BTK index was one of the best performing sectors with a 2.9% gain. Shares of PDLI paced along with a bounce from the $20 level and a 2.2% gain by the close. Volume continues to come in below average but maybe this time PDLI will see some follow through on the rally. Shares are still essentially trading sideways. We don't have much time left with PDLI's earnings coming up in early November. Our target is the $22.25-22.50 range.

Picked on October 05 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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W&T Offshore - WTI - close: 32.58 chg: -0.75 stop: 30.21

We warned readers yesterday that WTI might be poised to move lower. The stock lost 2.2% on Thursday, which was worse than the fractional decline in the OIX oil index. The stock is now trading near potential technical support at its 10-dma. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to think seriously about exiting early right here to log a gain. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on October 13 at $30.21
Change since picked: + 2.37
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 534 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 30.70 change: -0.03 stop: 32.05

There is no change from our previous updates on TXN. We're still waiting for a breakdown under round-number support at the $30.00 level. This may not happen with the SOX index bouncing higher thanks to KLAC's positive earnings report yesterday. If triggered at $29.90 our target is the $27.50 level. Once the play is open we'll probably adjust the stop loss toward the $31.50 or $31.00 levels since broken support at $31.00 should act as new resistance.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 29.18 chg: -0.81 stop: 28.45

We are suggesting an early exit in DNR. Shares produced another failed rally today. This is arguably the sixth failed rally under its descending 100-dma in the last two weeks. Today's session also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally seen as a bearish reversal. We're going to cut our losses now before things get worse.

Picked on October 16 at $30.26
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 826 thousand

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Kinetic Concepts - KCI - cls: 33.60 chg: -0.20 stop: 32.89

Time is up. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over KCI's earnings report expected tomorrow. Wall Street expects KCI to report a profit of 66 cents a share.

Picked on October 08 at $33.35
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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