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Long Play Updates

Simpson Mfg. - SSD - close: 27.53 chg: -0.17 stop: 27.99

If we don't see a bounce pretty soon we're going to drop SSD as a bullish candidate. Currently we're waiting for a breakout over resistance at $30.00. If triggered at $30.15 our target is the $34.00-35.00 range, under the 200-dma. Expect some resistance near $32.50.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 494 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Allstate - ALL - close: 61.15 chg: +0.11 stop: 62.11

ALL seems a little confused over which direction it wants to go. The stock traded lower this morning (trading under its 50-dma) but the stock eventually rallied back across the $61 level (support/resistance). The overall pattern and the breaks under $61 look bearish but the lack of follow through on the intraday breakdowns is a concern! Readers may want to wait for a new relative low under $60.65 before opening new plays. Our target is the $58.15-58.00 range.

Picked on November 01 at $60.95
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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INVACARE - IVC - close: 21.63 change: +0.24 stop: 23.11

IVC hit a new two-month low (21.11) this morning before rallying back into the green with an oversold bounce. More conservative traders may want to think about tightening their stops a bit. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 37.58 chg: +0.23 stop: 40.65

Call it a bounce if you want to but JOYG spent the session trading sideways. We don't see any changes from yesterday's new play description and would still continue to open new positions with the stock under $40. We do expect a bounce on the initial test of the $35.00 level. Our target is the $33.00-32.00 range. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 3.4% of JOYG's 118 million-share float.

Picked on November 01 at $37.35
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - close: 39.82 chg: +0.22 stop: 41.65

MNST produced a minor bounce on Thursday, which isn't a surprise. We suggested last night that more conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $39.00 anyway before opening plays. By waiting for a move under $39.00 the stock will have broken support at its 50-dma and 100-dma. There is some minor support near $38 so expect some sort of bounce but broken support near $40 should act as new resistance. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range since the $35.00 level has been support over the last few months. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 3% of MNST's 116 million-share float.

Picked on November 01 at $39.60
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 16.17 change: +0.03 stop: 17.25

We don't see any changes from our previous updates on RMBS. The stock continues to look vulnerable to more selling. Although it may take a decline in the SOX under support near 440 before we see RMBS break support near $16. We want to short a breakdown under $16.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to open positions at $15.90. If triggered our target is the $12.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the August lows closer to $10.00. Be advised that RMBS is very active in various legal battles over patents and intellectual property and bears (and bulls) are constantly at risk for an unexpected headline sending the stock surging one way or the other. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 29.74 change: -0.23 stop: 32.05

TXN slipped back under the $30 level with a 0.7% loss. A downgrade for Intel (INTC) helped push the SOX index into the red. We would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $27.50 mark. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stops toward the $31 level, which as broken support should act as new resistance.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

PDL BioPharma - PDLI - close: 21.00 chg: -0.20 stop: 20.65

It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over PDLI's earnings report. The company beat estimates by 23 cents and shares were trading in volatile fashion in after hours.

Picked on October 05 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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