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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Allstate - ALL - close: 61.48 chg: +0.33 stop: 62.11

We would step back and wait if you're looking for a new entry point in ALL. Last week's dip under support at $61 and its 50-dma is starting to look like a short-term bear trap. We also noticed a surge in volume during the Friday afternoon rally. Wait and watch for a failed rally in the $61.75-62.00 region as a potential entry point to short ALL. Or if you prefer to enter plays on more momentum then wait for a new relative low under $60.65. Our target is the $58.15-58.00 range.

Picked on November 01 at $60.95
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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INVACARE - IVC - close: 21.50 change: -0.13 stop: 23.11

The oversold bounce in IVC may not be over yet but if Friday's trading is any indication then the bulls may be in trouble. The stock gapped open higher and rallied toward the $22.00 level but quickly ran out of steam. The $22 mark was previous support so now that it has been broken it should act as overhead resistance. We would still consider new positions here or on a failed rally under the 10-dma near $22.50. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 38.55 chg: +0.97 stop: 40.65

Hmm... the bounce in JOYG on Friday looks dangerous. The company makes mining equipment for digging up coal and most of the coal stocks were strong on Friday. Coal producer FDG turned in a 6.4% gain but only after plunging the previous two sessions. Thus the bounce in JOYG may be temporary but it may depend on what coal stocks do. We'd watch for a failed rally under $40.00 and its 100-dma as a potential entry point for new shorts in JOYG. We do expect a bounce on the initial test of the $35.00 level. Our target is the $33.00-32.00 range. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 3.4% of JOYG's 118 million-share float.

Picked on November 01 at $37.35
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - close: 39.33 chg: -0.49 stop: 41.65

Shares of MNST continue to under perform their peers in the INX Internet index at least over the last few days. This past Friday saw the stock dip under technical support at its 100-dma and 50-dma but unfortunately shares bounced back by the closing bell. Technical indicators on MNST's daily chart are negative so we would consider new positions here. However, readers have a choice. You could look for a new failed rally under $41.00 or a new decline under $38.60 as potential entry points depending on your trading style. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range since the $35.00 level has been support over the last few months. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 3% of MNST's 116 million-share float.

Picked on November 01 at $39.60
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 16.41 change: +0.24 stop: 17.25

We are still in a wait-and-see mode with RMBS. The pattern remains bearish but we want to short a breakdown under support at $16.00. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger at $15.90 to open positions. If triggered our target is the $12.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the August lows closer to $10.00. Be advised that RMBS is very active in various legal battles over patents and intellectual property and bears (and bulls) are constantly at risk for an unexpected headline sending the stock surging one way or the other. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 6.4% of the 85.3 million-share float.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 29.57 change: -0.17 stop: 31.15*new*

TXN closed at a new 10-week low with Friday's 0.57% decline. Friday's session was also bearish thanks to the early morning failed rally at the $30.00 mark. However, we would be somewhat cautious. TXN looks a bit oversold and we'd remain cautious until we see the SOX index breakdown under support in the 444-443 range. Overall the trend in TXN is still bearish and we would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $27.50 mark. We are adjusting our stop loss to $31.105.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Simpson Mfg. - SSD - close: 27.88 chg: +0.35 stop: 27.99

SSD finally produced an oversold bounce but we're choosing to drop it anyway. We've been waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $30.00 level. So far the stock hasn't reached our trigger to go long at $30.15. More aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions with Friday's bounce but we'd use pretty tight stops.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 494 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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