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Long Play Updates

ENSCO - ESV - close: 53.06 change: +2.13 stop: 48.75 *new*

Oil stocks turned in decent gains on Wednesday. The OIX oil index rose 1.26% and the OSX oil services index rose 2.18% thanks to a bounce in crude oil futures. Shares of ESV out performed its peers with a 4.18% gain on above average volume. The stock is making a lot of progress towards our target in the $54.50-55.00 range. We're raising the stop loss to $48.75.

Picked on November 05 at $50.23
Change since picked: + 2.83
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 44.48 chg: +0.66 stop: 39.99

HES turned in some good news today. Traders bought the dip near $43.50 and there was no follow through lower on yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick (bearish reversal) pattern. We remain bullish and would continue to open new plays here. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the $42 level, which is where we would expect the stock to find support. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range over the next several weeks.

Picked on November 05 at $43.85
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

INVACARE - IVC - close: 21.71 change: -0.31 stop: 23.11

IVC lost 1.4% today following yesterday's failed rally under $22.50. Traders may want to consider new short positions here. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 40.09 chg: +0.67 stop: 40.65

Coal stocks are still looking weak and poised to move lower but shares of JOYG continue to bounce nonetheless. Today's rally is a minor bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and a breakout over round-number resistance at the $40.00 level. This is a pivotal point for JOYG. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit or just exit early to limit losses.

Picked on November 01 at $37.35
Change since picked: + 2.74
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 16.33 change: -0.18 stop: 17.25

There is no change from our previous updates. We are still waiting for a breakdown under support at $16.00 before suggesting new positions but more aggressive traders may want to consider new plays here. Our trigger to open positions is at $15.90. If triggered our target is the $12.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the August lows closer to $10.00. Be advised that RMBS is very active in various legal battles over patents and intellectual property and bears (and bulls) are constantly at risk for an unexpected headline sending the stock surging one way or the other. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 6.4% of the 85.3 million-share float.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 27.50 chg: -0.54 stop: 30.05

Homebuilders as a group continued to show relative weakness. The DJUSHB index lost 1.5%. Shares of TOL under performed its peers losing 1.9% thanks to an analyst downgrade today. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early December earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish for TOL and shares can trade to $25 and not break the current buy signal. Traders should also note that the latest (October) data put short interest at 15% of TOL's 114.9 million-share float. That's a high amount of short interest and increases the chance of a short squeeze should TOL suddenly move higher.

Picked on November 07 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 12/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 29.35 change: -0.39 stop: 31.15

TXN under performed the markets and its peers in the semiconductor sector with today's 1.3% decline on above average volume. Our target is the $27.50 mark.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Basic Energy - BAS - close: 26.84 change: +1.00 stop: 24.99

Our short-term bullish play in BAS didn't turn out that bad. A rally in oil stocks thanks to a rebound in crude oil today helped push BAS to a 3.8% gain. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over the company's earnings report expected tomorrow.

Picked on November 05 at $25.30
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 287 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Monster Worldwide - MNST - close: 42.51 chg: +1.41 stop: 41.65

We have been stopped out at $41.65. The after hours weakness we saw last night never materialized. Shares of MNST produced an impressive rally rising more than 3.4% on above average volume.

Picked on November 01 at $39.60
Change since picked: + 2.91
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

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