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Long Play Updates

ENSCO - ESV - close: 52.56 change: -0.50 stop: 49.45 *new*

Crude oil futures rose over 2% to close over $61 a barrel. This strength helped fuel a rally in the oil stocks. Unfortunately, the early strength in the oil service sector faded. ESV was no exception. The stock rallied to $54.15 intraday and then suffered some profit taking into the closing bell. The move looks like a very short-term bearish reversal and we would expect more of a consolidation tomorrow. Short-term support is way back at the $50.00 level and its rising 10-dma. We're going to raise our stop loss to $49.45. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $50.23
Change since picked: + 2.33
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 45.34 chg: +0.76 stop: 39.99

The strength in crude oil translated into a 1.7% gain for shares of HES. The rally did stall near $46 and we wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back toward the $44 region. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the $42 level, which is where we would expect the stock to find support. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range over the next several weeks.

Picked on November 05 at $43.85
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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HARSCO - HSC - close: 82.25 change: +0.23 stop: 79.45

HSC continued to trade higher intraday but the rally failed at the $83.00 level. Thus we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over $83. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock is at $83.05. If triggered our target is the April-May 2006 highs in the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 173 thousand

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Heinz - HNZ - close: 42.85 change: -0.35 stop: 41.85

HNZ experienced some profit taking on Thursday after yesterday's big breakout. We would watch for a bounce near $42.50 as a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range. We don't have a lot of time. HNZ is due to report earnings around November 21st and we plan to exit ahead of the report.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 11/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Oil States - OIS - close: 29.96 change: -0.25 stop: 28.84

Oil service stocks traded higher on strength in oil futures but by midday the momentum had faded. OIS, like most of the group, eventually closed in the red. Watch for a bounce near $29.50 or $29.00 as a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 980 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - close: 17.76 chg: +0.25 stop: 15.79

PEIX continued to rally higher even after yesterday's big gain but it's worth noting that shares closed off their best levels of the session. This is an aggressive, speculative play and traders should treat it cautiously. Shares of PEIX can be volatile. We would not be surprised to see a dip back toward $17.00 and readers can use a pull back as a new entry point to go long the stock. We have a relatively short time frame. The company is expected to report earnings sometime between November 14th and the 26th. Unfortunately, we don't have a confirmed date yet. We do not want to hold over the report when we do find out the correct date. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range. FYI: It's worth noting that the latest data (October) put short interest in PEIX at 19% of its 31.4 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and we could be see a squeeze right now.

Picked on November 08 at $17.51
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

INVACARE - IVC - close: 21.39 change: -0.32 stop: 23.11

IVC is still inching lower. The stock lost 1.47% but managed to bounce from its lows near $21. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 15.99 change: -0.34 stop: 17.05*new*

Our bearish play in RMBS has been opened. The stock sank to an intraday low of $15.87. Our suggested entry point to short it was at $15.90. The SOX semiconductor index appears to be cooperating. The SOX produced a failed rally under its 200-dma today and the SOX appears to be building a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with the last week producing the right shoulder. We are suggesting new positions with RMBS under $16 and we're adjusting our stop loss to $17.05. Our target is the $12.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the August lows closer to $10.00. Be advised that RMBS is very active in various legal battles over patents and intellectual property and bears (and bulls) are constantly at risk for an unexpected headline sending the stock surging one way or the other. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 6.4% of the 85.3 million-share float.

Picked on November 09 at $15.90
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 26.82 chg: -0.68 stop: 30.05

Housing stocks continued to sink and TOL lost 2.4% on Thursday. Shares are now testing technical support at the 100-dma. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early December earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish for TOL and shares can trade to $25 and not break the current buy signal. Traders should also note that the latest (October) data put short interest at 15% of TOL's 114.9 million-share float. That's a high amount of short interest and increases the chance of a short squeeze should TOL suddenly move higher.

Picked on November 07 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 12/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 28.66 change: -0.69 stop: 31.15

The SOX semiconductor index produced a bearish failed rally under its 200-dma. Weighing on the sector was TXN, which lost 2.3% on very strong volume. Big volume on the decline is bearish. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. Our target is the $27.50 mark.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Joy Global - JOYG - close: 40.09 chg: +0.67 stop: 40.65

We have been stopped out of JOYG at $40.65. It was a mixed day for coal stocks but that didn't stop shares of JOYG from spiking higher this morning to $40.97.

Picked on November 01 at $37.35
Change since picked: + 2.74
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

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