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Long Play Updates

ENSCO - ESV - close: 51.14 change: -1.42 stop: 49.45

On Friday the IEA lowered their forecast for oil consumption and the news sent crude oil futures plunging back under $60 a barrel. This naturally weighed on the oil stocks and ESV lost 2.7%. The stock's bullish trend is still intact but we need to see a bounce near round-number support and broken resistance at $50.00 and its 10-dma. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a bounce near $50 before opening new positions. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $50.23
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 45.00 chg: -0.34 stop: 39.99

HES also suffered some profit taking on Friday thanks to the pull back in crude oil. The intraday bounce near $44.50 looks like a potential entry point for new plays. However, readers might want to wait a day or two and see if the oil sector and crude oil continue to pull back or bounce from Friday's weakness. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the $42 level, which is where we would expect the stock to find support. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range over the next several weeks.

Picked on November 05 at $43.85
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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HARSCO - HSC - close: 81.48 change: -0.77 stop: 79.45

Shares of HSC continue to consolidate sideways. Last Thursday the stock came close to breaking out but failed at resistance near $83.00. We're waiting for the breakout and our suggested entry point to go long the stock is at $83.05. If triggered our target is the April-May 2006 highs in the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $111 target.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 173 thousand

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Heinz - HNZ - close: 42.87 change: +0.02 stop: 41.85

Shares of HNZ have spent the last two sessions consolidating sideways digesting Wednesday's bullish breakout. Traders can choose their entry point. A dip and bounce near $42.50 would be attractive or readers can wait for a new move over $43.30. We don't have a lot of time before HNZ reports earnings and we don't want to hold over the announcement. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 11/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Oil States - OIS - close: 29.42 change: -0.54 stop: 28.84

The IEA news and subsequent drop in crude oil futures helped push OIS to a 1.8% decline. Volume came in pretty low so it's hard to put a lot of conviction behind the move. Shares of OIS have pulled back toward support at its trendline of higher lows. A bounce from here or the $29 level could be used as a new entry point to go long. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 980 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - close: 17.70 chg: -0.06 stop: 15.79

Alternative fuel play, PEIX, didn't make a lot of progress on Friday. Friday's session for PEIX was a copy of Thursday's. The stock gapped open higher, failed in the $18.30-18.50 region, and the dipped toward $17.50 only to bounce higher into the close. The gap higher on Friday was due to some positive broker comments. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. This remains an aggressive play and shares of PEIX have been volatile in the past. Traders can choose to buy Friday's bounce from $17.50 or look for a dip back towards the $17.00-16.50 region. We have a relatively short time frame. The company is expected to report earnings sometime between November 14th and the 26th. Unfortunately, we don't have a confirmed date yet. We do not want to hold over the report when we do find out the correct date. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range. FYI: It's worth noting that the latest data (October) put short interest in PEIX at 19% of its 31.4 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and we could be see a squeeze.

Picked on November 08 at $17.51
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

INVACARE - IVC - close: 21.65 change: +0.26 stop: 23.11

We don't see any changes from our previous updates on IVC. The overall pattern looks bearish but short-term the stock is trying to produce an oversold bounce. The oversold bounce in early November failed at the $22.50 level. More conservative traders might want to consider using a tighter stop loss. We would see a failed rally under $22.50 or better yet under $22.25 as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 16.39 change: +0.40 stop: 17.05

Our short play in RMBS is not off to the best start. Shares hit our trigger to short it on the late Thursday intraday dip under support at $16.00. Thursday saw the SOX semiconductor index turn lower with a failed rally under the 200-dma. Unfortunately, there was no follow through lower on Friday and the SOX added 1%. Shares of RMBS out performed with a 2.5% bounce. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops in RMBS toward $16.60 or $16.55 to reduce their risk but if you do odds are you'd be stopped out on Monday if tech stocks, specifically semis, see any sort of rally. Shares of RMBS have failed before at the $17 level so we'll leave our stop loss at $17.50 for now. We're not suggesting new positions with RMBS above $16.00. Be aware that RMBS is very active in various legal battles over patents and intellectual property and bears (and bulls) are constantly at risk for an unexpected headline sending the stock surging one way or the other. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play. FYI: The latest (October) data put short interest at 6.4% of the 85.3 million-share float.

Picked on November 09 at $15.90
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 27.41 chg: +0.59 stop: 30.05

After a week of declines TOL managed an oversold bounce from the 100-dma. The rebound was sparked by a drop in bond yields, which puts downward pressure on mortgage rates. We would watch and wait for a failed rally near its 10-dma or the 50-dma, both near $28.25, as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early December earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish for TOL and shares can trade to $25 and not break the current buy signal. Traders should also note that the latest (October) data put short interest at 15% of TOL's 114.9 million-share float. That's a high amount of short interest and increases the chance of a short squeeze should TOL suddenly move higher.

Picked on November 07 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 12/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 28.74 change: +0.08 stop: 31.15

TXN managed to bounce from its lows on Friday but the stock is still under performing the market and its peers in the semiconductor sector. Shares do look a bit oversold and due for a bounce. We would expect a bounce back toward short-term resistance at its 10-dma near $29.50. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. Our target is the $27.50 mark.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 1.16
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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