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Long Play Updates

Celadon Group - CLDN - close: 19.18 change: -0.20 stop: 17.99

We have been disappointed with CLDN's performance so far this week. More aggressive traders may want to buy the late afternoon bounce on Tuesday while more conservative types may want to wait for a new rise over $20.00 or the recent high at $20.12 before initiating new long positions. Our target is the $22.00 level. Plan for some resistance at $21.00 at least on the initial test. Conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss (maybe near $18.50).

Picked on November 12 at $19.44
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 305 thousand

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 45.75 chg: +0.51 stop: 41.99*new*

HES has been showing relative strength the last couple of days. Shares bounced from the $44.00 level and its 10-dma on Monday. Tuesday's session saw a decrease in volume as HES challenges resistance near $46 and its exponential 200-dma. The rally is somewhat surprising given the pull back in crude oil futures. We are raising our stop loss to $41.99 since the $42 level looks like support with its 50-dma. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range over the next several weeks.

Picked on November 05 at $43.85
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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HARSCO - HSC - close: 81.30 change: +0.25 stop: 79.90*new*

HSC has been under performing this week as shares drift back toward support near $80 and its rising 50-dma and 200-dma. However, today's afternoon bounce from the $80 level looks like a new bullish entry point. As a matter of fact we're adjusting our strategy and suggesting long positions now! More conservative traders may still want to wait for HSC to clear resistance at $83 first before initiating plays. We're raising the stop loss to $79.90. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $111 target.

Picked on November 14 at $ 81.30
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 173 thousand

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Heinz - HNZ - close: 43.50 change: +0.21 stop: 41.85

Traders bought the dip in HNZ near $43 this morning and the stock closed at a new four-month high. We only have a few days left for this play before we plan to exit ahead of the company's earnings report. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 11/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Oil States - OIS - close: 29.39 change: +0.04 stop: 28.84

Shares of OIS have spent the last couple of sessions bouncing along the $29.00 level and its six-week trendline of higher lows. Traders can choose to buy the dip here near $29 or wait for a new rally past the $30 level and its 100-dma. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 980 thousand

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Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - close: 17.34 chg: +0.39 stop: 15.79

Over the weekend we suggested that a pull back toward $17.00 could be used as an entry point and PEIX provided one. However, before you consider new positions please note that this is a high-risk, speculative play. It is high risk for multiple reasons but one reason is that we do not want to hold over the company's earnings report. Unfortunately, we don't know when they are going to report. There were estimates that PEIX would announce sometime between November 14th (today) and November 26th. We haven't found a confirmed date and we didn't see any news out today. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range. FYI: It's worth noting that the latest data (October) put short interest in PEIX at 19% of its 31.4 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and we could be see a squeeze.

Picked on November 08 at $17.51
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Thor Industries. - THO - close: 43.38 change: -0.20 stop: 41.99

We do not see any changes from our weekend play description on THO. We're still waiting for a real breakout over resistance at the $44.00 level. Shares tried to breakout this morning with an intraday high at $44.03 but the stock failed to hold any gains. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock is at $44.25. If triggered then our target is the $47.85-48.00 level near the October peak.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 624 thousand

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VeriSign - VRSN - close: 23.55 change: +0.70 stop: 20.99

This has been a very bullish week for VRSN. Monday saw the stock surge higher and breakout past resistance in the $22.00-22.50 region and its 200-dma. We had a trigger to go long the stock at $22.51. The rally continued today with a 3% gain on above average volume, which is normally a bullish sign. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million
 

Short Play Updates

Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 28.62 chg: +1.32 stop: 30.05

Warning! The homebuilders were the best performing industry today. The DJUSHB home construction index rose almost 6%. Homebuilder DHI reported earnings today that were better than expected. This news coupled with another drop in bond yields really fueled a rally/short squeeze in the builders. The 4.8% rally in TOL stalled just under its 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses here and exit or tighten their stops toward $29.00.

Picked on November 07 at $27.60
Change since picked: + 1.02
Earnings Date 12/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Texas Instruments - TXN - cls: 29.66 chg: +0.70 stop: 30.51 *new*

The rally in the semiconductors is fueling a bounce in TXN and shares are eating away at our unrealized gains. Today's 2.4% bounce in TXN is a concern because shares closed over short-term technical resistance at the 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit TXN early given the bullish breakout in the SOX semiconductor index today. We're going to lower our stop loss to $30.51. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

ENSCO - ESV - close: 49.76 change: -0.36 stop: 49.45

We have been stopped out of ESV at $49.45. The profit taking in ESV picked up speed on Monday. The stock gapped down Monday morning to open at $49.64 thanks to an analyst downgrade. We were stopped out at $49.45. The pull back from its highs has produced a bearish tone for some of the technical indicators since they were in overbought territory. The close under support at its 10-dma and the $50 level is not good news for the bulls. We'd keep an eye on the stock to see how shares react if it nears the $47.50 region. Last Friday the stock came within 35 cents of our target before reversing.

Picked on November 05 at $50.23
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

INVACARE - IVC - close: 22.88 change: +0.90 stop: 23.11

We are suggesting an early exit in IVC. There is a chance that the stock will reverse at resistance near $23.00 and its descending 100-dma. However, the rebound this week has been strong and fueled by above average volume. Today's 4% gain helped produce a new MACD buy signal on the daily chart. We'd rather exit now and cut our losses. FYI: It's worth noting that the long-term trend in IVC is bearish so keep an eye on it to see if it breaks that long-term trend or rolls over again.

Picked on October 30 at $21.94
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand

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Rambus Inc. - RMBS - close: 16.85 change: +0.36 stop: 17.05

We are suggesting an early exit in RMBS. Strength in shares of INTC and KLAC helped power a big rally in the SOX semiconductor index. The SOX rose 2.8% and broke out past resistance at the 200-dma to close at a new five-month high. Shares of RMBS followed with a 2.1% gain. RMBS is nearing resistance at the $17.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to think about keeping the play open. We suspect that RMBS will breakout over $17.00 so we'd rather exit early and limit our losses. The big rally in the SOX might just spark some short covering in RMBS that could get a lot worse if the stock does trade over $17.

Picked on November 09 at $15.90
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million
 

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