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Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 58.02 change: +0.44 stop: 55.49

Broker dealer stocks continued to show some strength on Wednesday. The XBD index out performed the rest of the financials and is challenging resistance in the 240-242 zone. A move past 242 would complete a bullish cup-and-handle pattern for the sector. Meanwhile shares of AGE continued to rise. The stock broke out over resistance at the $58.00 level and hit a new all-time high at $58.32. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock was at $58.15 so the play is now open. Our target is the $62.50 level There is a chance that AGE could encounter some round-number resistance at the $60 level. However, the P&F chart has a quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand


Celadon Group - CLDN - close: 19.69 change: +0.51 stop: 17.99

Some big M&A news in the airlines sector helped light a fire under the transports and that helped lift shares of CLDN. The stock rallied 2.6% and its MACD indicator on the daily chart produced a new buy signal. Earlier we suggested long positions above $19.00 but more conservative types may want to wait for a new rise over $20.00 or the recent high at $20.12 before initiating new long positions. Our target is the $22.00 level. Plan for some resistance at $21.00 at least on the initial test. Conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss (maybe near $18.50).

Picked on November 12 at $19.44
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 305 thousand


Hess Corp. - HES - close: 46.74 chg: +0.99 stop: 41.99

Some of the oil stocks (mostly oil service) trekked higher thanks to a drop in the weekly oil inventory numbers. Shares of HES displayed some relative strength with a 2.1% gain and a breakout over the $46 level and its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $43.85
Change since picked: + 2.89
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million


HARSCO - HSC - close: 81.00 change: -0.30 stop: 79.90

Our enthusiasm for buying the bounce from support near $80 and its rising 50 and 200-dma(s) is waning now that HSC failed to produce any sort of bullish follow through higher. This is especially true with the major averages hitting new relative highs today. Considering HSC's relative weakness today we'd think twice about new positions. Another bounce from $80 could be used as a new entry but we're not suggesting it. Instead it might pay off to wait and use our original plan and wait for a breakout over resistance near $83.00.

Picked on November 14 at $ 81.30
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 173 thousand


Heinz - HNZ - close: 43.79 change: +0.29 stop: 41.85

HNZ posted another gain (+0.66%) and is challenging the $44 level. If the November 21st earnings report date is correct then we only have three trading days left. Given the information at hand we would not open new positions. Hopefully we get a confirmed date soon. If we don't we'll plan on exiting on Monday at the closing bell just to be safe. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to tighten stops toward the $42.50 region.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 11/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million


Oil States - OIS - close: 30.38 change: +0.99 stop: 28.84

Oil service stocks saw the strongest reaction to today's oil inventory numbers. The OSX oil service index rose 1.6%. Shares of OIS really out performed its peers with a 3.3% rally and a close back over the $30 level and its 100-dma. This looks like another entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on November 08 at $30.21
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 980 thousand


Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - close: 19.08 chg: +1.74 stop: 16.75*new*

Shares of PEIX soared today rising just over 10% on volume that was 3.5 times the daily average. The move was fueled by positive comments on the company's earnings. PEIX didn't actually report earnings. As a matter of fact the company issued a press release stating it needed to delay its earnings report and some SEC documents. However, management did say that earnings were better than expected and the company was expected to report its first ever profit. Wall Street had expected PEIX to report a 3-cent loss. We still don't have a confirmed earnings date but since the news is already out we're going to ride the wave. Our target remains the $19.90-20.00 range but we're raising our stop loss to $16.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The stock has a high amount of short interest and today's rally is probably exacerbated by a short squeeze that could definitely continue tomorrow!

Picked on November 08 at $17.51
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 11/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million


Thor Industries. - THO - close: 44.10 change: +0.72 stop: 41.99

Our bullish play in THO is now open. The stock broke out over resistance at the $44.00 level and hit our suggested trigger to go long the stock at $44.25 this afternoon. Volume came in above average on the move, which can be considered bullish. Short-term technicals are certainly improving. Our target is the $47.85-48.00 level. near the October peak.

Picked on November 15 at $44.25
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 11/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 624 thousand


VeriSign - VRSN - close: 23.51 change: -0.04 stop: 20.99

The VRSN bulls rested on Wednesday after a strong run this week. We wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back towards $23.00 or $22.50 either of which could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

Short Play Updates

Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 28.80 chg: +0.18 stop: 30.05

The homebuilders continued to rally on Wednesday. The DJUSHB home construction index rose 1.2% while TOL added 0.6%. If you look at both charts you'll see that the DJUSHB is nearing resistance at the 700 level. Meanwhile TOL is already challenging resistance at its 200-dma near $29. If you think resistance will hold then you might want to stick it out and keep the play open. If you think the homebuilders will continue to rally then consider exiting early right here to cut your losses.

Picked on November 07 at $27.60
Change since picked: + 1.20
Earnings Date 12/07/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million


Texas Instruments - TXN - cls: 30.17 chg: +0.51 stop: 30.51

TXN soared again on Wednesday with a 1.7% gain, which out performed the SOX semiconductor index. Today marks the fourth gain in a row for TXN and the technical indicators are turning positive. Consider the bullish breakout in the SOX yesterday readers might want to consider an early exit in TXN to limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on October 27 at $29.90
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.8 million

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