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Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 59.69 change: -0.14 stop: 55.95

Several of the broker-dealer/investment stocks were hit with profit taking on Friday morning. Shares of AGE gapped open lower but quickly bounced and almost make it back into the green before the early close on Friday. We're not that surprised and have been warning readers to expect some resistance at the $60.00 level. Shares do look somewhat overbought and due for a stronger consolidation. A dip back to the 10-dma or the 58 level could be used as a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Broken resistance in the $57.75-58.00 range should offer new support. Our target is the $62.50 level. The P&F chart has a quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand


ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 30.25 chg: +0.42 stop: 27.75

The price of ALJ shares has for the most part been disconnected from the price of crude oil over the last several weeks. However, it did not hurt the stock that crude oil bounced back over $60 a barrel on Friday thanks to talk that OPEC might announce new production cuts in December. Shares of ALJ rallied for a 1.4% gain and pushed back above resistance at the $30.00 level. We see this as another entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. Be aware that the 100-dma near $32 might offer some resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish after the August-September sell-off.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand


Celadon Group - CLDN - cls: 19.82 chg: +0.11 stop: 18.95*new*

We remain cautious with CLDN. The transports edged lower on Friday thanks to a rise in crude oil futures. Shares of CLDN dipped to $19.22 before quickly bouncing back. The rebound produced what might be described as a "hammer" candlestick, which can be a bullish reversal. Unfortunately, CLDN remain stuck in its short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows. Currently the five-day consolidation looks a bit like a bull flag sans the flag pole. Aggressive traders might consider buying CLDN's bounce on Friday. We would wait for a new move over $$20.15 before considering new positions. If we don't see some sort of bounce on Monday we'll probably close this play. We will try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $18.95. Our target is the $22.00 level. Plan for some resistance at $21.00 at least on the initial test.

Picked on November 12 at $19.44
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 305 thousand


Heinz - HNZ - close: 44.36 change: -0.11 stop: 42.75*new*

HNZ experienced some profit taking on Friday morning but traders bought the dip near $43.90 and the stock recouped most of its losses. We're running out of time for this play given HNZ's upcoming earnings report on November 30th. Our plan is to exit on Wednesday the 29th at the closing bell to avoid holding over the report. Considering our time frame we are adjusting the target to $45.50 and adjusting the stop loss to $42.75. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million


Ladish Co - LDSH - close: 34.09 change: -0.22 stop: 32.99

Several days ago LDSH broke out over a significant trendline of resistance (see chart) but has since struggled to make it past the $35.00 level. The larger trend is bullish but short-term we want to see more confirmation before considering long positions. Aggressive traders may want to consider going long on a rise past $35.10-35.15. We would rather wait for a rally past $35.50 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $35.55. If triggered our target is the $39.90-40.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $44 target.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand


Lee Enter. - LEE - close: 28.68 change: -0.32 stop: 27.99

In the last few months it looks like LEE has produced a significant bottom and staged a bullish reversal. More recently the stock has been consolidating sideways against resistance near $29 and its 200-dma while also producing a bullish pattern of higher lows. Currently the two-day pull back has dragged LEE back to its short-term trendline of higher lows. A bounce from here would make an attractive entry point but more conservative traders may want to see a new relative high (above 29.35) before starting new plays. Conservative traders currently long the stock might want to adjust their stop toward $28.50 to reduce their risk. Be prepared for some resistance near $30.00 but we expect LEE to press through it after a day or two. Our target is the $32.00 level.

Picked on November 21 at $29.30
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 232 thousand


Pride Intl. - PDE - close: 30.87 change: -0.41 stop: 27.89

After Wednesday's big gain in PDE investors decided to lock in some gains on Friday. The stock gave back 1.3%. If you are looking for new bullish positions consider waiting for a dip back into the $30.50-30.00 range. Broken resistance near $29.85-30.00 should now offer new support in addition to broken resistance at the 200-dma offering potential support. Don't be surprised if PDE sees some resistance near $32.00 but the trend is definitely bullish and we're aiming for the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart has reversed into a new buy signal that has seen its target grow from $41 to $44.

Picked on November 21 at $30.10
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


VeriSign - VRSN - close: 24.00 change: +0.00 stop: 21.90

Shares of VRSN resisted some early morning profit taking on Friday to close unchanged on the session. The stock continues to look bullish but VRSN is arguably short-term overbought. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. If you're concerned about a sell-off more conservative traders could put their stop under last week's lows near $22.90. We are leaving our stop under the $22 level for now. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million


Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.48 chg: +0.18 stop: 17.39

Shares of steel-maker WOR managed to hit a new relative high on Friday. We remain bullish given WOR's breakout over resistance at the $18.00 level. The question is how will WOR handle potential resistance at the 100-dma near $18.75 and the 200-dma near $19.00. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $31 target.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 12/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand

Short Play Updates


Closed Long Plays

Cameco - CCJ - close: 36.40 change: +1.69 stop: 30.89

Target surpassed. Friday proved to be a very strong day for shares of CCJ. Not only were gold and metal stocks higher on Friday due to weakness in the U.S. dollar but shares of CCJ were rising on news that it had signed a deal to work with a Russian nuclear company to co-develop and explore for uranium. The news actually hit Wednesday night. Shares of CCJ gapped open at $36.25 on Friday morning and hit an intraday high of $36.83. Since our target was the $35-36 range we would have exited immediately on Friday's open.

Picked on November 19 at $32.78
Change since picked: + 3.62
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million


Thor Industries. - THO - close: 44.69 chg: -0.26 stop: 42.99

Time is up. The earnings date is still unconfirmed but THO is expected to announce on Monday the 27th. It was our plan to exit on Friday at the close to avoid holding over the company's report.

Picked on November 15 at $44.25
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 11/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 624 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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