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Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 57.87 change: -1.82 stop: 55.95

AGE erased a week's worth of gains with today's 3% decline. The broker-dealer stocks has been hitting new record highs and that made them a big target for profit taking during today's session. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock should find some support in the $57.00-57.50-58.00 region. More conservative might want to entertain the idea of an early exit to limit any losses after considering how ugly today's decline was. Our target is the $62.50 level. The P&F chart has a quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand


ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 29.07 chg: -1.18 stop: 27.75

Crude oil futures rose more than a dollar to close back over $60 a barrel but this was not enough to save ALJ from Monday's market weakness. The stock lost 3.9% and dropped back to broken resistance and what should be short-term support near the $29 level. We hesitate to suggest new bullish plays at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. Be aware that the 100-dma near $32 might offer some resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish after the August-September sell-off.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand


Heinz - HNZ - close: 43.66 change: -0.70 stop: 42.75

The market-wide profit taking on Monday left HNZ with a 1.5% loss. The move has thrown some bearish curves into the stock's short-term technical indicators. The breakdown back under the $44 level and its 10-dma is not a good sign for the bulls. We're not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions. Our current plan is to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell to avoid earnings.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million


Ladish Co - LDSH - close: 33.11 change: -0.98 stop: 32.99

We are still sitting on the sidelines with LDSH. It has been our plan to catch a breakout over $35.00 with a trigger to go long at $35.55. Unfortunately, the stock has struggled the last few days and today's decline (-2.8%) appears to be a breakdown under its recent trendline of support. If we don't see a bounce from $33 soon we'll drop LDSH as a bullish candidate.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand


Pride Intl. - PDE - close: 30.10 change: -0.77 stop: 28.45*new*

PDE ignored the hefty rise in crude oil futures and joined the rest of the market in trading lower. The stock lost 2.5% and closed above broken resistance and what should be support at the $30 level. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point to go long but we would be extra cautious about opening new long plays with the market looking vulnerable to more selling. Please note that we're raising our stop loss to $28.45. Our target has been the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart has reversed into a new buy signal that has seen its target grow from $41 to $44.

Picked on November 21 at $30.10
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


Raytheon - RTN - close: 50.36 change: -0.51 stop: 49.85

We do not see any change from our weekend play description on RTN. Aggressive traders might want to buy this dip near $50.00. We're waiting for a breakout over $51.00 with a suggested trigger to buy the stock at $51.05. If triggered our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


VeriSign - VRSN - close: 23.03 change: -0.97 stop: 21.90

Technology stocks lead the decline on Monday. The GSO software index lost 2.48%. Shares of VRSN under performed its peers with a 4% loss after announcing a $52 million deal to buy consulting firm InCode Wireless. The technical picture is growing bearish for VRSN. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops but be aware that we'd expect a dip toward $22.50 and probably $22.00 on any further decline.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million


Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 17.99 chg: -0.49 stop: 17.39

WOR managed to erase almost all of last week's gains with today's 2.6% decline. Furthermore today's sell-off almost looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. The close under $18.00, which should have been short-term support, and the close under its 10-dma is bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit early to avoid or limit losses. We would expect a dip toward $17.75-17.50 with potential support at its 50-dma (near $17.65).

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 12/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand

Short Play Updates

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 55.93 chg: -1.46 stop: 58.55

The sell-off in FNM continues on Monday with a 2.5% decline on above average volume. We don't see any changes from our weekend play description. Our short-term target is the $54.00 level.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: - 1.46
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million


McKesson - MCK - close: 48.32 change: +0.14 stop: 50.01

We were not expecting any sort of bounce in MCK on Monday. The fact that shares displayed relative strength on such a bearish day is a potential warning sign for the bears. Consider waiting and watch for another failed rally under $49.00 and its 10-dma as a potential entry point for new short positions. Our target is the June lows but we're using the $45.00-44.50 range as our official exit range. Our stop loss is a bit wide at $50.01 and more conservative traders might consider a tighter stop near Friday's high. FYI: The latest data put short-interest at less than one percent of the float.

Picked on November 26 at $48.18
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

Closed Long Plays

Celadon Group - CLDN - cls: 19.11 chg: -0.71 stop: 18.95

We have been stopped out of CLDN at $18.95. The transports were weak thanks to the widespread market profit taking and a strong rise in crude oil today. Shares of CLDN appear to have broken their four-week trendline of support. Over the weekend we raised our stop loss to $18.95 and shares managed to hit it late this afternoon on a spike under the $19 level.

Picked on November 12 at $19.44
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 305 thousand


Lee Enter. - LEE - close: 28.26 change: -0.42 stop: 27.99

We have been stopped out of LEE at $27.99. Market weakness led to LEE's sharp decline this morning and an intraday spike under the $28 level (not to mention the 200-dma).

Picked on November 21 at $29.30
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 232 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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