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Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 58.20 change: +0.25 stop: 55.95

The rebound in the broker-dealer stocks remains weak. That should put traders on the defensive although if you look at the intraday chart of AGE it looks like today's afternoon bounce could be used as a new entry point for long positions. Conservative traders may want to significantly tighten their stops. Our target is the $62.50 level. The P&F chart has a quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 31.32 chg: +1.81 stop: 27.75

Lower than expected weekly inventory numbers sent crude oil prices rising and that fueled a big move in the oil stocks. Shares of ALJ rose over 6% breaking out to new relative highs. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. Be aware that the 100-dma near $32 might offer some resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish after the August-September sell-off.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 32.83 chg: +1.07 stop: 29.75

The rally in oil stocks fueled a bullish breakout in CRZO past resistance at the $32.00 level. Shares closed with a 3.3% gain on above average volume, which is a bullish sign. We were suggesting a trigger to go long at $32.15 so the play is now open. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $46 to $49 with today's gain.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 39.95 change: +1.25 stop: 36.99

Oil service stocks were the best performing sector today. The OSX index rose 3.9%. Shares of GMRK paced the move with a 3.2% gain on strong volume, which is bullish. Shares are challenging potential round-number resistance at the $40.00 level. The P&F chart is very optimistic with a $67 target. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Ladish Co - LDSH - close: 33.15 change: +0.10 stop: 32.99

We are going to give LDSH one more day to show some strength. Otherwise we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Currently we're waiting for a breakout over resistance with a suggested trigger at $35.55.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 42.85 change: +0.60 stop: 41.35

The rally continues for OKE, which broke out from a multi-week trading range yesterday. The MACD is quickly approaching a new buy signal. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 51.55 change: +0.75 stop: 49.85

The defense sector index surged to a new six-month high. This powered a bullish breakout in RTN to new all-time highs. We had a suggested trigger to go long the stock at $51.05. The play is open and our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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VeriSign - VRSN - close: 24.27 change: +1.12 stop: 22.49*new*

Shares of VRSN rallied sharply on Wednesday rising more than 4.8% on above average volume and breaking out over recent resistance at the $24.00 level. Given today's show of relative strength we are raising our stop loss to $22.49. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 1.76
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.41 chg: +0.23 stop: 17.39

WOR is still inching higher. The stock rose 1.2% and while volume is still below average it is improving. Be aware that we do expect some resistance near the 100-dma (around 18.70) and near its 200-dma (around $19). Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range. This will not be a very quick play and we may end up holding it up to its late December earnings report.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 12/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 56.91 chg: +0.51 stop: 58.55

FNM is still bouncing but it looks like it wants to trade lower. More conservative traders may want to think about tightening their stops toward the $58 level. The next level of resistance looks like the 10-dma and 50-dma near $57.80. A failed rally under $58 could be used as a new entry point. However, we would hesitate to open new bearish positions with the major indices moving higher. Our short-term target is the $54.00 level.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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WebMD - WBMD - close: 35.18 change: +0.72 stop: 35.26

We do not see any changes from Tuesday night's new play description. If WBMD breaks down we want to short it and target the $30 level. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $33.70, which is under the March 2006 low. The latest data only lists short interest as 2.7% of the company's eight million-share float. Yet we suspect that number is an error and that short interest is probably much higher. The risk here is that with a lot of short interest any sudden rebound can produce a short squeeze. Aggressive traders may want to use a wide stop loss to give WBMD room to move. We're going to try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $35.26. Our target will be the $30.25-30.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Heinz - HNZ - close: 43.97 change: +0.42 stop: 42.99

Time is up. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over HNZ's earnings report due out tomorrow. Wall Street is looking for HNZ to turn in earnings of $0.60 a share.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Pride Intl. - PDE - close: 32.69 change: +1.53 stop: 28.45

Target achieved. The rally in crude oil and following rally in oil stocks fueled a 4.9% gain in shares of PDE. Shares hit an intraday high of $33.11, which was enough to hit our target in the $33.00-34.00 range. Volume behind today's move was strong and definitely a bullish sign. While the play is closed for us more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on November 21 at $30.10
Change since picked: + 2.59
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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