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Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 57.85 change: -0.35 stop: 55.95

Lack of follow through for AGE or the XBD broker-dealer index on any post-Monday bounce is not a good sign. The technical picture has turned bearish and it looks like AGE is poised to drip towards $56 and its 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here. We're not suggesting new positions. If AGE does turn lower tomorrow we'll probably close the play.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 31.14 chg: -0.18 stop: 27.75

Oil stocks were strong again on Thursday although today's performance was only a fraction of Wednesday's gains. Fueling the sector strength was another gain for crude oil, which is now trading near $63 a barrel. ALJ got a boost this morning with one analyst firm upgrading the stock to a "strong buy". The positive outlook helped ALJ hit a new relative high at $31.85 but the rally ran out of steam at its simple 100-dma (we've been warning readers about potential resistance at the 100-dma). At this time we'd look for a dip back towards the $30.00-30.50 region as a new entry point. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 0.99
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 34.03 chg: +0.05 stop: 31.99

The rally in energy stock, CHK, took a breather on Thursday. Shares only managed a minor gain but the close over $34.00 is a positive sign. We don't see any changes from our new play description on Wednesday. A pull back tomorrow would be a preferred entry point but we are willing to chase CHK here. It's up to you, the individual trader, if you want to wait for a dip or not. Broken resistance in the $33.15-33.20 region should now act as support. Our target is the $38.00-40.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 33.23 chg: +0.40 stop: 29.75

CRZO managed to out perform its peers and the market today with a 1.2% gain. Furthermore the stock hit a new all-time high and on strong volume, which is normally a bullish sign. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $46 to $49 with today's gain.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 40.27 change: +0.32 stop: 36.99

Shares of GMRK also displayed relative strength. The stock hit a new all-time high and on strong volume. Plus, today's rally put shares above potential round-number resistance at the $40.00 level. The P&F chart is very optimistic with a $67 target. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Ladish Co - LDSH - close: 33.74 change: +0.59 stop: 32.99

We were looking for some strength in LDSH today otherwise we were going to drop it as a bullish candidate. Shares managed to rally 1.77% so we're going to keep it on the newsletter for now. We are still just spectators at this point. Our suggested strategy is to buy the stock on a breakout over resistance in the $35.00-35.50 region. Our trigger is at $35.55.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 53.50 change: +0.39 stop: 48.99

NBL continued to show strength with another gain and another new record high. We don't see any changes from our new play description. Traders can choose to go long here at current levels or hope for a dip. We would expect the $50.00-51.00 region to act as new support. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.24 change: +0.39 stop: 41.35

Are traders starting to turn more defensive by buying high dividend yielding stocks? That might be the case with OKE, which currently yields about 3%. The stock gapped higher and closed with a 0.9% gain. The rally today helped the MACD on the daily chart produce a new buy signal. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 0.99
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 51.04 change: -0.51 stop: 49.85

We want to urge caution here with RTN. Volume on today's decline was above average and lack of follow through on Wednesday's bullish breakout over resistance is not bullish. Traders might want to watch for a bounce from here (near $51) as a new entry point. More aggressive traders might want to watch for a bounce near the $50 level as an entry point. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.50 chg: +0.09 stop: 17.39

Steel maker WOR is still creeping higher and doing so on rising volume, which tends to be a bullish sign. Shares tagged technical resistance at its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma late this afternoon. We would not be surprised to see another dip towards $18 again. We are raising our stop loss to $17.85, which is under this week's lows. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range. This will not be a very quick play and we may end up holding it up to its late December earnings report.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 12/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 57.03 chg: +0.12 stop: 58.55

It looks like the oversold bounce in FNM might be running out of gas. A failed rally under its descending 10-dma (near $57.50) could be used as a new entry point to short the stock. We would still hesitate to open new bearish positions if the major indices moving higher. Our short-term target is the $54.00 level.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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WebMD - WBMD - close: 36.53 change: +1.33 stop: 35.26

There is no change from our new play description from Tuesday night. We are still waiting for a breakdown under support near $34.00. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to short WBMD at $33.70, which is under the March 2006 low. The latest data only lists short interest as 2.7% of the company's eight million-share float. Yet we suspect that number is an error and that short interest is probably much higher. The risk here is that with a lot of short interest any sudden rebound can produce a short squeeze. Aggressive traders may want to use a wide stop loss to give WBMD room to move. We're going to try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $35.26. Our target will be the $30.25-30.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

VeriSign - VRSN - close: 26.09 change: +1.82 stop: 22.49

Target exceeded. VRSN turned in a very strong session surging almost 7.5% on huge volume. Our target was the $24.90-25.00 range and the stock hit an intraday high of $26.77. According to a Reuters article VRSN won approval from the U.S. Department of Commerce to "continue running the lucrative '.com' Internet registry through 2012".

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 3.58
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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