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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.28 change: +0.25 stop: 40.89

AEP is off to a good start. Shares dipped back to the $42.00 level and retested broken resistance as new support. This looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. The MACD is edging closer to a new buy signal. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 31.30 chg: +0.60 stop: 27.75

Traders bought the dip in ALJ near its rising 10-dma and the stock rose 1.9% in spite of weakness in crude oil and the energy sector. We remain bullish on ALJ with the stock above $30.00. The next challenge is the 100-dma, which was resistance last week. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The $29.00 level is short-term support. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 45.15 change: -0.69 stop: 42.99

Homebuilders struggled to build on last week's strength due to an October report out today that said pending home sales slipped 1.7%. We see today's dip as temporary and a potential buying opportunity. However, more patient traders might want to sit and wait for a potential dip back toward the $44 region. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit at the 200-dma near $49.00. FYI: The P&F chart displays an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with a $58 target.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 33.70 chg: -0.39 stop: 31.99

After several days of gains crude oil futures finally hit some profit taking. This weighed on the energy sector. Yet for the most part oil stocks managed to rebound strongly from their lows of the session. We remain bullish on CHK and would use the dip as a new entry point. Our target is the $38.00-40.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 33.27 chg: -0.12 stop: 29.75

CRZO is another oil stock that suffered an intraday set back before bouncing back into the close. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target is $49.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 26.29 change: -0.30 stop: 24.69

DHI is another homebuilder that hit some profit taking after the pending home sales figures this morning. However, the pull back in DHI stalled near its 200-dma and the $26 level, which should both act as support. We would use the dip as a new entry point to go long. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 40.80 change: +0.58 stop: 36.99

GMRK continues to show relative strength. The stock added another 1.44% and ignored any weakness in the energy sector on Monday. The P&F chart is very optimistic with a $67 target. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 52.48 change: -0.51 stop: 48.99

NBL is another oil stock that dipped on the weakness in crude oil. Shares did bounce near the $52 level and we'd use the pull back as a new entry point to buy the stock. Or if you believe the sector is due for more profit taking then wait for a dip toward $51.00, which would also be an attractive entry point. We would expect the $50.00-51.00 region to act as new support. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 44.20 change: +0.53 stop: 41.35

OKE continues to march higher and ignored any weakness in energy stocks today. Technicals are bullish and there doesn't seem to be anything in its way between here and our target in the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.95
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.31 change: -1.13 stop: 34.45

The profit taking in RDC was above average with a 3% decline compared to a 0.6% decline in the oil services index. Aggressive traders might want to buy a bounce form here near $35. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance. At this time we're suggesting a trigger to open plays at $37.05. Our target is the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.15 change: +0.85 stop: 49.85

The DFI defense index broke out to a new all-time high. Shares of RTN were contributing with a 1.6% rally and its own new record high. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.10
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 19.09 chg: +0.67 stop: 17.85

Hmm... Monday's session was very bullish for WOR. The stock rose 3.6% and broke through multiple levels of resistance including its 100-dma, exponential 200-dma, the simple 200-dma and the $19.00 level. Yet we cannot find any specific news to account for WOR's big show of strength. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 1.13
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 27.05 chg: +0.64 stop: 27.01

We expected a bounce in CAKE and more aggressive traders might want to consider shorting a failed rally under $27.00 or $28.00. Our strategy is based on a breakdown below support near $26 and its 100-dma. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 57.89 chg: +1.06 stop: 58.25

A merger in the banking sector fueled a strong rally in the financials. Shares of FNM rose 1.8% and broke out over its 10-dma. More conservative traders might want to exit early right here to limit any losses. We're going to keep the play alive for now since FNM still has potential resistance at $58.00 and its 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time given the strength in the broader market.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 22.44 change: +0.44 stop: 23.55

Watch IPSU for a failed rally under $23.00. Broken support at $23.00 should now act as new resistance. A failed rally near $23 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. More aggressive traders might want to use a wider stop loss and a lower target. We are aiming for the $20.05-20.00 range. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $15 target.

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand

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WebMD - WBMD - close: 36.70 change: +1.12 stop: 35.26

There is no change from our previous updates on WBMD. We're still waiting on a breakdown below support near $34.00. Today's 3% gain was probably short covering thanks to a widespread market rally. The stock has significant support near $34.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to open positions at $33.70, which is under the March 2006 low. The latest data only lists short interest as 2.7% of the company's eight million-share float. Yet we suspect that number is an error and that short interest is probably much higher. The risk here is that with a lot of short interest any sudden rebound can produce a short squeeze. Aggressive traders may want to use a wide stop loss to give WBMD room to move. We're going to try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $35.26. Our target will be the $30.25-30.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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