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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.61 change: +0.33 stop: 40.89

AEP reaffirmed its fiscal year guidance today. The company also celebrated their 100th anniversary by ringing the closing bell at the NYSE. The stock continued to perform well. Shares added another 0.78% and set another new multi-year high. Today's rise helped the MACD finally produce a new buy signal. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 31.01 chg: -0.29 stop: 28.85*new*

Uh-oh! This is the second time in four trading days that ALJ has produced a failed rally at its simple 100-dma. Volume wasn't very big on the failed rally so we're not too concerned yet but we are expecting a dip back toward the 10-dma near $30.40 or the $30 level. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new long positions. We're going to raise our stop loss to $28.85. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 46.34 change: +1.19 stop: 42.99

Toll Brothers (TOL), another homebuilder, reported earnings today. The results were better than expected but more importantly TOL's management issued some positive comments about the sector potentially being at a bottom. That's all investors needed to hear. Bulls pushed the Dow Jones US Home Construction index (DJUSHB) to a 2.39% gain. BZH rose 2.6% and on above average volume, which is bullish. We don't see any big changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit at the 200-dma near $49.00. FYI: The P&F chart displays an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with a $58 target.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 33.76 chg: +0.06 stop: 31.99

The OIX oil index managed a 0.8% gain but for many oil-related equities trading was relatively flat. We remain bullish on CHK with the stock above $33.00 and would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $38.00-40.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 33.12 chg: -0.15 stop: 29.75

CRZO managed to hit another new all-time high just under the $34 level before succumbing to profit taking. CRZO continues to look bullish but it might see a dip back toward $32.00. We would use any dip near $32 or its 10-dma as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target is $49.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 26.63 change: +0.34 stop: 24.69

DHI also got a boost from the comments out of Toll Brothers (TOL) today. Shares rallied 1.29% but they continue to struggle with the $27.00 region. We remain bullish on DHI. Readers can choose to try and buy a dip near $26 or a breakout over $27.10. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 38.20 change: -2.60 stop: 36.99

Ouch! GMRK had been performing very well. Unfortunately, the company announced plans to issue and sell another two million shares of stock. They already have about 20 million shares outstanding so investors are fortunate that GMRK didn't fall more than 10% on the news. Of course that doesn't mean that GMRK won't continue to sell-off. The big drop today put an ugly bearish turn in most of the technical indicators. More conservative traders may want to bail out right now to limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but watch for another rally past $39.00, which might indicate a continuation of the previous trend. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 53.35 change: +0.87 stop: 48.99

NBL displayed some relative strength today with a 1.6% gain. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 44.26 change: +0.06 stop: 41.35

OKE is still inching higher. The stock might be getting a little short-term overbought so don't be surprised to see a dip soon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 2.01
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.50 change: +0.19 stop: 34.45

RDC is trying to bounce and today's intraday rebound from the $34.85 region could be used as an aggressive entry point for longs. However, we are sticking to the plan and waiting for a breakout over the 200-dma and the $37 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $37.05. Our target is the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.28 change: +0.13 stop: 49.85

RTN posted another new record high but we noticed a drop off in volume. We see the decline in volume on a new high as a potential warning sign. Don't be surprised to see a dip back toward $51 or its 10-dma. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.96 chg: -0.13 stop: 17.85

WOR suffered some profit taking after yesterday's big rally. Overall the intermediate trend is bullish but we would not suggest new positions here. Broken resistance near $18.50 should now offer some support. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.60 chg: -0.45 stop: 27.01

There is no change from our previous updates on CAKE. The stock looks poised to move lower. Shares lost 1.6% after an analyst firm downgraded the stock to a "sell". Aggressive traders might want to consider shorts with the stock under $27.00. We are waiting for a breakdown. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 23.01 change: +0.57 stop: 23.55

Warning! IPSU is showing more strength than expected. Broken support at $23.00 should have become new resistance for the stock. We don't see any specific news to account for the strength of the rebound and the close above the $23.00 mark should put bears on the defensive. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward today's high (23.32).

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 57.93 chg: +0.04 stop: 58.25

Another bullish day for financial stocks was enough to send FNM past resistance at $58.00 and its 50-dma. We were stopped out at $58.25. The play is closed for us but traders might want to keep an eye on FNM for another decline past $57.50 or $57.00 as a potential entry point for new bearish positions.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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WebMD - WBMD - close: 37.74 change: +1.04 stop: 35.26

WBMD is not going to cooperate with our bearish plans on the stock. We suspect that the rebound is mostly short covering. More aggressive traders might want to consider bearish plays on a failed rally under $39.00 and its 200-dma but if you do open positions we'd use a tight stop. It was our plan to short a breakdown under support near $34.00 with a trigger at $33.70 but appears unlikely to occur any time soon. We're dropping it unopened.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

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