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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.14 change: -0.47 stop: 40.89

Wednesday was a day for profit taking across several sectors of the market. Shares of AEP lost 1.1% and erased most of its recent gains. Fortunately, the stock did bounce from broken resistance and what should be support near the $42 region. Readers can use the pull back as a new entry point while more conservative traders may want to wait for some signs of strength tomorrow before opening new plays. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 31.21 chg: +0.20 stop: 28.85

ALJ tried to rally again but couldn't make it past resistance at its 100-dma. Yet if you're feeling optimistic then the pattern of higher lows is still bullish. We remain bullish with the stock above $30.00. If ALJ continues to dip then a bounce near $30 can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 48.19 change: +1.85 stop: 42.99

Today was the annual homebuilders convention in New York. Analysts and industry experts offered a positive outlook that the industry would find a bottom in the first half of 2007. This lifted the homebuilding stocks and the DJUSHB index rose 2.1% while the HGX index rose 1.59%. Shares of BZH managed to out perform most of its peers with a 4% gain on strong volume. The stock is now challenging technical resistance at its 200-dma near $48.70. More conservative traders may want to exit now or near the 200-dma. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart displays an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with a $58 target.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: + 2.35
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 33.73 chg: -0.03 stop: 31.99

Shares of CHK, like many oil stocks, continued to consolidate on Wednesday. Readers might want to watch for a bounce near its 10-dma (around $33.40) or a dip near $33.00 as a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $38.00-40.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 32.71 chg: -0.41 stop: 29.75

Some afternoon profit taking in CRZO pulled the stock down to a 1.2% decline. We'd look for a dip near the 10-dma (around 32.30) or the $32.00 region as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target is $49.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 27.53 change: +0.90 stop: 24.69

DHI is another homebuilder that soared on positive comments about the sector nearing a real bottom. The stock rose 3.3% on strong volume. This is a new five-month high. Broken resistance near $27 should now be short-term support. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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Florida East Coast - FLA - close: 61.53 change: -0.61 stop: 58.99

The market suffered some profit taking on Wednesday and FLA was not immune. Shares lost almost 1%. Readers can choose to buy the dip today or wait and see if FLA provides a stronger dip near $60. Our target is the $67.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 38.59 change: +0.39 stop: 36.99

GMRK managed a 1% bounce but failed to make it past yesterday's high or the simple 10-dma, which is bearish in our book. Traders should proceed cautiously. More conservative traders may want to bail out right now to limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but another rally past $39.00 would appear to be a new entry point. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 47.35 change: +0.95 stop: 43.99

The rally in GTRC continues. The stock rose 2% today on above average volume. It became apparent why GTRC was moving. The company has been labeled as an attractive leveraged buyout target. Today's rally really confirms the bullish breakout yesterday but patient traders might want to wait for a dip before opening new positions. Please note that the Point & Figure chart displays a potential problem with resistance near $48.00. Our short-term target is the $49.75-50.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on December 05 at $46.40
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 53.20 change: -0.15 stop: 48.99

The rally in NBL took a break today. Shares traded near $54 before paring their gains. We remain bullish on NBL but the stock might dip back towards $52 or its 10-dma before moving higher. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.86 change: -0.40 stop: 41.35

OKE also suffered some profit taking after its multi-day run up. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.74 change: +0.24 stop: 34.45

RDC acts like it wants to go higher but we remain on the sidelines. Our plan is to catch a breakout over resistance at its 200-dma and the $37 level. We're suggesting a trigger to go long at $37.05. Our target is the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.82 change: +0.54 stop: 49.85

RTN displayed relative strength with a 1% gain on strong volume to post a new record high. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.77
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.65 chg: -0.31 stop: 17.99*new*

WOR experienced another round of profit taking but this time shares produced an intraday failed rally near $19 and its 200-dma. That should be the bulls on alert! Watch for a bounce near $18.50 or its simple 10-dma as a continuation of the up trend. We're raising our stop loss to $17.99. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.75 chg: +0.15 stop: 27.01

There is no change from our previous updates on CAKE. The stock looks poised to move lower. More aggressive traders might want to jump in now with what appears to be a failed rally near $27.00. We are waiting for a breakdown. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 22.89 change: -0.12 stop: 23.55

IPSU spent most of the session trading sideways. However, late in the day the stock tried to rally and failed at $23.26. We would use this as a new bearish entry point to short the stock. More conservative traders may want to ratchet down their stops toward today's high. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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