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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 41.69 change: -0.45 stop: 40.89

Caution! AEP's bullish breakout buy signal has reversed. The stock has fallen under the $42.00 level, which as broken resistance should have acted as new support. Shares of AEP are now back inside the $41.00-42.00 trading range. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now! We are going to wait and see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow. We're not suggesting new positions. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 30.80 chg: -0.41 stop: 28.85

Normally we would be inclined to suggest new entry points on today's dip to the rising 10-dma. This time we would wait. The oil sector suffered some profit taking in spite of a rise in crude oil futures. Investors are nervous about tomorrow's jobs report number and even oil stocks might not be able to escape any significant sell-off. More conservative traders might want to protect themselves by tightening their stop loss.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 47.09 change: -1.00 stop: 44.25*new*

The homebuilders completely reversed yesterday's gains thanks to a Credit Suisse analyst who downgraded the sector this morning. The DJUSHB index lost 2.2%. Shares of BZH fell 2% on above average volume. We would expect a dip in BZH back toward $46 and potentially toward support near $45 and its 10-dma. We are raising our stop loss to $44.25 to reduce our exposure. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 33.60 chg: -0.13 stop: 31.99

Watch out! CHK is probably going to gap down tomorrow morning. After the closing bell tonight the company announced plans to sell another 30 million shares of stock in a secondary public offering. The company already has about 438 million shares outstanding. CHK was trading down near $32.40 in after hours. Readers may want to try and exit early at the open or try and exit on an intraday bounce tomorrow if one occurs. The drop under $33.00, which should have been support will be seen as bearish.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 32.75 chg: +0.04 stop: 29.75

CRZO displayed some relative strength by closing with a minor gain. Most of the oil sector suffered another day or profit taking. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and we suspect that CRZO might dip again near the $32.00 level, which should be short-term support. However, if the market reacts positively to the jobs report tomorrow then a rise past $33.00 or another dip near $32 could be used as an entry point in CRZO. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target is $49.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 27.21 change: -0.32 stop: 24.69

DHI performed better than most of its peers. The stock only lost 1.1% while the DJUSHB index fell 2.2% and gave back all of yesterday's gains thanks to the Credit Suisse downgrade on homebuilders today. We would look for another dip near $26 as a potential entry point. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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Florida East Coast - FLA - close: 61.00 change: -0.53 stop: 58.99

FLA suffered another round of profit taking. Shares lost 0.8%. We would watch for a bounce near $60.00 as a potential entry point. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new rally past $62.00 (recent resistance) before considering long positions. Our target is the $67.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 38.30 change: -0.29 stop: 36.99

We remain very wary with shares of GMRK. The stock has not moved much since the gap down on Tuesday. More conservative traders may want to bail out right now to limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but another rally past $39.00 would appear to be a new entry point. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 46.31 change: -1.04 stop: 43.99

GTRC could not escape the market-wide profit taking on Thursday. Shares lost 2.19% and look poised to dip back towards what should be support near $45.00 and its 200-dma. We would wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. Our short-term target is the $49.75-50.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on December 05 at $46.40
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 52.88 change: -0.32 stop: 48.99

Same story, different stock. Oil futures managed to tick higher but oil stocks suffered another round of profit taking. NBL didn't get hit that bad and managed to bounce from its lows of the session. The $50.00, 51.00, and $52.00 levels could all offer some form of short-term support. We would hesitate to open new positions with the major averages in the red. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.55 change: -0.31 stop: 41.35

Utility stocks were not immune to the profit taking today. OKE lost 0.7%. Watch for a bounce from the 10-dma or the $42.00 region as a potential entry point for new longs. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.05 change: -0.69 stop: 34.45

We remain spectators just sitting on the sidelines with RDC. Currently we're waiting for a breakout over resistance above the 200-dma and the $37.00 level. If we are triggered at $37.05 our target will be the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.35 change: -0.47 stop: 49.85

After hitting new record highs yesterday traders decided to take some money off the table in RTN. The 10-dma near $51.50 or the $51.00 level could offer short-term support. We would not suggest new positions at this time. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.70 chg: +0.05 stop: 17.99

We do not see any changes from our previous updates on WOR. Watch for a bounce near $18.50 or its simple 10-dma as a continuation of the up trend. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.58 chg: -0.17 stop: 27.01

We are still waiting for a breakdown under $26.00 and its 100-dma. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 22.90 change: +0.01 stop: 23.55

There is no change from our previous updates on IPSU. The stock spent Thursday's session inside a 40-cent range. More conservative traders may want to ratchet down their stops toward Wednesday's high (23.26). Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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