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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.20 change: +0.31 stop: 40.89

The UTY utility index turned in a decent 0.48% gain on Monday. Helping lead the way was AEP, which added 0.74% to close back above the $42.00 level. This rally past $42.00 is a new bullish entry point to go long the stock however over the weekend we suggested waiting for a rally past $42.25. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $41.50. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 29.92 chg: -0.63 stop: 28.85

We are waving the yellow caution flag here with ALJ. We cannot find any specific news to account for today's gap lower and 2% decline. Furthermore the drop today produced a new MACD sell signal on the daily chart. We're not willing to abandon the play just yet since ALJ is hovering around support near $30.00 and its simple 200-dma. Plus, the stock should have additional support near $29.00. Conservative traders may also want to raise their stops. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 46.61 change: +0.47 stop: 44.25

The homebuilders managed to produce a bounce this morning but most of the group gave back the majority of their gains. Shares of BZH out performed its peers and closed with a 1% gain. The bounce from $46 could be used as a new entry point but we're skeptical. Traders may want to wait and see if the stock dips lower toward $45.00 before initiating new positions. Currently our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 31.78 chg: -0.30 stop: 31.49

CHK is still suffering from last week's announcement to issue more stock. The stock fell at the open and eventually closed with a 0.9% loss. The bad news is how the intraday bounce failed to make it past Friday's lows, which now look like resistance. More conservative traders may just want to exit early right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but we'll be watching for a rally past $32.50 to change our minds. FYI: Today's high of $32.70 looks like a bad tick. Our target is the $38.00-40.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 32.07 chg: +0.06 stop: 29.75

We don't see any changes from our weekend update on CRZO. The stock's upward momentum is still in jeopardy. Conservative traders may want to cut their losses now. We are keeping CRZO on the play list because we're bullish on oil and the oil stocks. However, CRZO could easily correct back toward the $30.00 level, which would be close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target is $52.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 26.77 change: +0.10 stop: 24.95

DHI rallied with the rest of the homebuilders this morning but like most of the group the stock eventually gave back much of its early gains. We suspect that DHI will dip toward $26.00, which is where we would consider new bullish positions. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target. FYI: We're going to inch up our stop loss to $24.95.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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Florida East Coast - FLA - close: 61.64 change: +0.11 stop: 58.99

FLA teased us with some intraday strength above $62 but eventually closed off its best levels of the session. The continuation of Friday's bounce is encouraging but we would hesitate to open new plays ahead of the Fed decision tomorrow. The P&F chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal (formed this week) with a $94 target. Our target is the $67.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 38.31 change: -0.14 stop: 37.39*new*

GMRK continues to vacillate sideways. The consolidation is narrowing and that would suggest a breakout is around the corner. The question is what direction will GMRK breakout? We're bullish on oil and the energy sector and would use a rally past $39.00 as a new entry point. However, we are concerned that GMRK could see more profit taking so we're raising our stop loss to $37.39, which is under last week's low. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 46.28 change: +0.06 stop: 43.99

There is no change from our weekend update on GTRC. The stock looks bullish given last week's breakout but there is still a good chance that GTRC will dip toward $45.00, which is where we would look for a new entry point. Our short-term target is the $49.75-50.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on December 05 at $46.40
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 52.19 change: +0.17 stop: 49.75

We do not see any changes from our weekend update on NBL. The good news today was the lack of follow through lower on Friday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We remain bullish on oil and energy stocks but would wait for a dip near $51.00 or maybe the $50.00 level before considering new positions in NBL. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.35 change: -0.29 stop: 41.35

OKE is still slowly consolidating lower. The trend remains bullish but the profit taking may not be over yet. Readers can watch for a dip near $42.50-42.00 as a potential entry point to begin new long positions. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.10
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.56 change: +0.11 stop: 34.45

We are waiting on a bullish breakout over resistance. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $37.05. If we are triggered at $37.05 our target will be the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.38 change: +0.21 stop: 49.85

This is the fourth time in the last five trading sessions that traders have bought the dip in RTN near $52.00. We remain bullish and would consider new positions here or on a dip near the 10-dma. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.60 chg: -0.14 stop: 17.99

The six-week trend in WOR is bullish but momentum is waning and this is affecting the technical indicators. Today's failed rally under the 200-dma and what appears to be a bearish engulfing candlestick does not inspire any confidence in the stock. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops near $18.45-18.50, which is short-term support and where WOR will probably test tomorrow. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the 19.85-20.00 range.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.35 chg: -0.35 stop: 27.01

CAKE is slipping toward support near $26.00 and its 100-dma. We're still waiting on a breakdown. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 23.07 change: +0.09 stop: 23.55

We do not see any changes from our weekend update. IPSU continues to consolidate sideways. However, we want to warn readers that IPSU witnessed a spike in volume near the closing bell tonight as shares began to tick higher. Readers might want to tighten their stops toward $23.26. We would wait for a decline under $22.60 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $20.05-20.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand

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New Century - NEW - close: 34.55 change: +0.08 stop: 36.55

NEW produced a minor oversold bounce on Monday. The bounce may not be over yet. Readers can choose to open positions now or wait and watch for a failed rally under $35.00-35.50. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 22% of the company's 50 million-share float. That is a very high degree of short interest and it does raise the risk of a short squeeze if NEW reverses sharply higher.

Picked on December 10 at $34.47
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 24.40 change: -0.04 stop: 26.01

There are no changes from our weekend new play description on NTLI. The stock continues to look bearish and poised to move lower. We are suggesting shorts in NTLI with the stock under $25.00. There does seem to be some support near the $23.50 region but the Point & Figure chart points to a $9.00 target. We will target a decline into the $21.00-20.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 3.5% of the company's 324 million-share float.

Picked on December 10 at $24.44
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 25.06 change: +0.22 stop: 26.75

Friday's bearish breakdown inspired a spike down at the open on Monday. Unfortunately, bulls bought the dip and TCHC immediately began to rebound. About midday an analyst firm upgraded the stock, which further fed the rally. Volume on the rebound was above average, which should put bears on the defensive. We would wait for a new decline under $24.84 or even $24.75 before considering new shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward today's high or the $26.00 level. Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range. The most recent (November) data puts short interest at over 6% of TCHC's 6.4% float. That's a very small float so 6% might be enough short interest to really increase the risk of a short squeeze should TCHC reverse higher. Bear that in mind when considering positions as you may want a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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