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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.51 change: +0.31 stop: 40.89

AEP continues to show relative strength. The stock rose 0.7%. Furthermore the three-day bounce is doing a lot to improve the technical picture. The move past $42.00 (and $42.25) is a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $41.50. Our short-term target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 29.34 chg: -0.58 stop: 28.85

Warning! ALJ continues to show relative weakness. The stock lost another 1.9% following yesterday's gap lower. Today's decline puts ALJ under its 200-dma. Shares are now testing support at the $29.00 level. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 45.58 change: -1.03 stop: 44.25

The homebuilders continued to see profit taking and BZH under performed its peers with a 2.2% decline. The stock is now under its simple 10-dma and looks poised to test the $45.00 level soon. We would watch for a bounce near $45.00 as a potential entry point. Currently our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 31.26 chg: -0.81 stop: 29.75

Danger! The profit taking in CRZO is getting worse. Shares lost 2.5% and look poised to continue lower. We reiterate our suggestion from yesterday that more conservative traders may want to exit now to limit any losses. If we do not see a bounce in CRZO near $31.00 we will exit early. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 26.75 change: -0.02 stop: 24.95

DHI managed to fare better than most of its peers in the homebuilding sector. The stock consolidated sideways and only closed with a minor loss. Traders can choose to buy the dip here or wait for a dip toward $26.00, which should be support. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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Florida East Coast - FLA - close: 61.85 change: +0.21 stop: 58.99

FLA is still trying to rally but is being hampered by weakness in the transportation index and the railroad index. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high above $62.32. The P&F chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal (formed this week) with a $94 target. Our target is the $67.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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GulfMark - GMRK - close: 38.23 change: -0.08 stop: 37.39

We do not see any change from our previous update on GMRK. The stock is still trading sideways and a breakout seems imminent. We'd wait for a rally past $39.00 before considering new longs. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop. We're aiming for the $42.50-43.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $38.70
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 108 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 46.28 change: +0.00 stop: 43.99

We see no change from our previous updates. Traders bought the dip in GTRC but the stock closed unchanged for the session. There is still a good chance that GTRC will dip toward $45.00, which is where we would look for a new entry point. Our short-term target is the $49.75-50.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on December 05 at $46.40
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 52.04 change: -0.15 stop: 49.75

There are no changes from our previous updates on NBL. We would wait for a dip near $51.00 or maybe the $50.00 level before considering new positions in NBL. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $76 target. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.15 change: -0.20 stop: 41.75*new*

OKE is still slipping lower and nearing what should be short-term support at the $43.00 level. If $43 fails then OKE should have additional support in the $42.00-42.25 region. We are raising our stop loss to $41.75. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 35.40 change: -0.16 stop: 34.45

We are waiting on a bullish breakout over resistance. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $37.05. If we are triggered at $37.05 our target will be the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.36 change: -0.02 stop: 49.85

Lack of upward momentum is beginning to turn the technical picture bearish. Short-term we'd look for another dip to $52.00 or its 10-dma. If $52 fails then RTN should have some support near old resistance at $51.00. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.03 chg: -0.32 stop: 27.01

CAKE seems to be steadily losing altitude and is near support at $26.00 and its 100-dma. There have been some bearish analyst comments focused on the restaurant sector recently, which may have contributed to the downturn in CAKE. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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New Century - NEW - close: 34.32 change: -0.23 stop: 36.55

We don't see any changes from our previous updates. NEW is still floundering around the $34 level. Traders can choose to open positions here or wait for a bounce and failed rally near $35.00-35.50 as a potential entry point. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 22% of the company's 50 million-share float. That is a very high degree of short interest and it does raise the risk of a short squeeze if NEW reverses sharply higher.

Picked on December 10 at $34.47
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 24.39 change: -0.01 stop: 26.01

Traders bought the dip in NTLI at the $24.00 level. The afternoon bounce doesn't look over yet and we would expect NTLI to rally toward the $25 level tomorrow. Wait for signs of a failed rally under $25.00 or $25.50 before considering new plays. There does seem to be some support near the $23.50 region but the Point & Figure chart points to a $9.00 target. We will target a decline into the $21.00-20.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 3.5% of the company's 324 million-share float.

Picked on December 10 at $24.44
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 25.08 change: +0.02 stop: 26.75

The good news with TCHC today is the lack of follow through higher on yesterday's big intraday rebound. We remain defensive on the stock. We would wait for a new decline under $24.84 or even $24.75 before considering new shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $26.00 level. Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range. The most recent (November) data puts short interest at over 6% of TCHC's 6.4% float. That's a very small float so 6% might be enough short interest to really increase the risk of a short squeeze should TCHC reverse higher. Bear that in mind when considering positions as you may want a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - cls: 31.29 chg: -0.49 stop: 31.49

We have been stopped out of CHK at $31.49. The stock continued to sell-off and shares broke down under support at its 50-dma and 100-dma. The weakness began last week with the company's announcement to offer more stock in a secondary offering.

Picked on November 29 at $33.98
Change since picked: - 2.69
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 17.97 chg: -0.63 stop: 17.99

We have been stopped out of WOR at $17.99. An earnings warning from steel-maker Nucor (NUE) sparked a sharp sell-off across the steel sector. WOR closed with a 3.3% decline on above average volume. Today's decline produced a new MACD sell signal.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 12/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Imperial Sugar - IPSU - close: 26.57 change: +3.50 stop: 23.55

We have been stopped out of IPSU. Today's trading in IPSU is a perfect example of why we do not want to hold over an earnings report. The company reported earnings this morning that blew away the analysts' estimates. On top of crushing the estimates the company noted an improvement in its margins and announced a special one-time $3.00 cash dividend for shareholders. Our problem was the earnings announcement date. The source we checked had IPSU's next earnings date listed as January 27th next year. Our stop loss was at $23.55 but shares gapped open higher at $27.04 and closed with a 15% gain on huge volume.

Picked on December 03 at $22.00
Change since picked: + 4.57
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 248 thousand
 

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