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Long Play Updates

Amer. Electric - AEP - close: 42.53 chg: +0.10 stop: 41.49*new*

AEP is still inching higher. We remain bullish on the stock but it's up to you, the individual trader, if you want to chase it here or hope for another dip back towards the $42.00 level. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. FYI: We do not expect shares of AEP to move very fast so it could take a few weeks to reach our target.

Picked on December 03 at $42.03
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 45.89 change: +0.25 stop: 44.25

BZH managed a 0.5% gain but shares failed to break the short-term trend of lower highs. Plus, the DJUSHB sector index under performed the broader market. The intermediate trend in BZH is still bullish but the shorter-term technicals are still looking bearish. We remain cautious here and would not suggest new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to just exit early right here to limit any losses or as an alternative consider raising your stop loss. Currently our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $45.84
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Carrizo Oil & Gas - CRZO - cls: 31.96 chg: +0.48 stop: 30.90

Sector wide strength in oil stocks and an upgrade this morning for CRZO helped send the stock spiking higher just after the open. Unfortunately, the rally stalled at its 10-dma. The 1.5% rebound is encouraging but we may not be out of the woods just yet and would remain cautious. If oil stocks can build on today's rally then CRZO might be okay but the technical picture is mixed. If you are looking for a new position consider waiting for a rally past today's high near $32.40.

Picked on November 29 at $32.15
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 11/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 345 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 26.64 change: -0.14 stop: 25.79

DHI, like many of the homebuilders, continues to under perform the market. The stock rallied this morning only to give it all back and more. The relative weakness is not a good sign for the bulls. We're still expecting a dip toward $26.00 but more conservative traders may just want to exit early and put your capital into a different play. Our short-term target is the $29.90-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $36 target.

Picked on December 03 at $26.59
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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Florida East Coast - FLA - close: 63.14 change: +1.68 stop: 58.99

Transportation stocks ignored the sharp rally in oil and the Dow Jones transportation index rose 1.5%. Shares of FLA, a railroad stock, surged 2.7% to a new all-time high. Volume behind the rally was above average, which is usually bullish. Our target is the $67.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 46.84 change: +0.15 stop: 43.99

GTRC is trekking higher although today's pace under performed the broader markets. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. Our short-term target is the $49.75-50.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on December 05 at $46.40
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 54.03 change: +1.09 stop: 49.75

Oil stocks got a boost after OPEC announced it would plan to cut another 500 million barrels of production effective February 1st. This sent crude oil sharply higher and the energy sector rallied. NBL got an extra boost after one analyst firm reiterated their bullish rating on the stock and raised their price target to $70. NBL closed with a 2% gain and set a new all-time high. More importantly this looks like a bullish breakout from a three-week trading range. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $53.11
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.45 change: +0.23 stop: 41.75

Traders are starting to buy the dip in OKE. Shares closed off their best levels of the day but managed a 0.5% gain on above average volume. This might be a new bullish entry point but if you're launching new plays right here you may want to tighten your stop loss! Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.13
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Rowan Cos. - RDC - close: 37.28 change: +1.28 stop: 34.45

Our bullish play on RDC is now open. The OPEC news and crude oil rally fueled a big move in the oil stocks. Shares of RDC powered through resistance at its 200-dma and the $37.00 level. Our suggested entry point to go long the stock was at $37.05. Our target is the $41.00-42.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit early near $40.00, which might be round-number resistance.

Picked on December 14 at $37.05
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.40 change: +0.15 stop: 49.85

Uh-oh! Today was the perfect chance for RTN to launch higher from support near $52.00 and its 10-dma. The stock did edge higher but it failed to breakout from its four-day trading range. We remain bullish on the stock but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.26 chg: +0.07 stop: 27.01

CAKE produced a minor bounce this morning but the rebound failed at its 10-dma. Shares look poised to move lower. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $25.65. If triggered at $25.65 our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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New Century - NEW - close: 34.18 change: -0.51 stop: 36.55

Shares of NEW displayed relative weakness with a 1.4% decline but the stock is still trading inside its $34.00-34.85 trading range. On the plus side the stock does look poised to move lower. Traders can choose to open positions here or wait for a bounce and failed rally near $35.00-35.50 as a potential entry point. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 22% of the company's 50 million-share float. That is a very high degree of short interest and it does raise the risk of a short squeeze if NEW reverses sharply higher.

Picked on December 10 at $34.47
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 24.91 change: +0.66 stop: 26.01

The market's strength helped fuel an oversold bounce in NTLI. Shares closed with a 2.7% gain. However, the stock is still trading under its bearish trend of lower highs. A failed rally from here or near its 50-dma (around $25.60) could be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the 50-dma. The Point & Figure chart points to a $9.00 target. We will target a decline into the $21.00-20.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 3.5% of the company's 324 million-share float.

Picked on December 10 at $24.44
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 25.26 change: -0.29 stop: 26.26

TCHC displayed relative weakness by failing to participate in the market's rally. The stock is trading under a bearish trend of lower highs and struggling with technical resistance at its 50-dma. We would wait for a new decline under $25.00 or $24.84 before considering new shorts. More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to the 10-dma (25.67) or the 50-dma (25.78). Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range. The most recent (November) data puts short interest at over 6% of TCHC's 6.4% float. That's a very small float so 6% might be enough short interest to really increase the risk of a short squeeze should TCHC reverse higher. Bear that in mind when considering positions as you may want a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 29.50 chg: +0.02 stop: 28.99

OPEC announced that they would cut another 500 million barrels effective February 1st and the news sent crude oil futures soaring. Oil stocks rallied. Unfortunately, ALJ under performed its peers and was already sinking again near the end of the day. After today's show of relative weakness we're suggesting an early exit. We'd rather cut our losses in ALJ now and find another oil stock to replace it as a bullish candidate.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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