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Long Play Updates

AllState - ALL - close: 65.76 change: +0.24 stop: 63.49

ALL is still marching higher. The stock rose 0.3% to close at another new record high. Shares might see a small pop higher tomorrow. After the closing bell tonight it was announced that Florida state regulators had approved an 8.2% rate hike for ALL. It's probably not too late to consider new positions or readers can wait for a dip back toward $65, which should act as short-term support. Our target is the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 15 at $65.25
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.19 change: +0.20 stop: 42.25

We do not see any changes from our previous updates on OKE. The stock produced a 0.4% bounce today but shares still appear to be stuck in a three-week consolidation phase. We would wait for a rise past the 10-dma near $43.40-43.50 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. Our target is the $45.00-46.00 range.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 53.55 change: +0.56 stop: 49.85

The defense sector was one of the better performers today. Shares of RTN helped lead the charge with a 1% gain and a new all-time high. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. A good place to consider stops is short-term support near $52.00. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 2.50
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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St.Paul Travelers - STA - cls: 53.89 change: -0.08 stop: 51.95

STA is starting to see a little bit of profit taking but bulls stepped in to buy the dip this afternoon. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions here. However, a dip back toward $53.00, which should be short-term support, would make an attractive entry point. Our target is the $57.50 level. The P&F chart is bullish with a $76 target.

Picked on December 17 at $53.56
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 25.15 chg: +0.06 stop: 27.01

CAKE produced another failed rally this morning. Readers can use the move as a new entry point to short the stock. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stops toward $26.50 or even the $26.00 region. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Colonial Prop. - CLP - close: 46.10 change: -0.50 stop: 48.26

REITs under performed the market on Tuesday. Shares of CLP lost another 1% and closed at a new three-month low. We still don't see any big changes. The stock looks bearish given the various breakdowns and the head-and-shoulders pattern. Our target is the May 2006 lows but we will plan to exit at $42.75. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings. FYI: Traders should know that in the past few months CLP has been noted as a potential takeover/acquisition target in the real estate sector. If a deal is announced it could be very painful for shorts but we haven't heard anything further on the subject. Meanwhile short interest is about 3% of the 43.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 17 at $46.71
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 217 thousand

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New Century - NEW - close: 33.98 change: -0.02 stop: 36.01*new*

NEW is just not seeing a lot of follow through lower. We're starting to worry that the sideways consolidation will eventually reverse higher. One could argue that NEW's two-cent decline was actually a sign of relative strength since so many of the REITs were weak today. We are lowering our stop loss to $36.01 and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops even further. An oversold bounce toward $35.00 would not be out of the ordinary. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 22% of the company's 50 million-share float. That is a very high degree of short interest and it does raise the risk of a short squeeze if NEW reverses sharply higher.

Picked on December 10 at $34.47
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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NTL Inc. - NTLI - close: 24.87 change: -0.09 stop: 26.01

We remain very cautious on NTLI. The stock is consolidating under its bearish trendline of lower highs but it has also developed a bullish trend of higher lows. Volume is beginning to fade as NTLI coils between the opposing trends. A breakout is imminent. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the 50-dma near $$25.56. We are not suggesting new positions at this time although another breakdown under $24.00 would look like a new entry point for shorts. The Point & Figure chart points to a $9.00 target. Our target is the $21.00-20.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 3.5% of the company's 324 million-share float.

Picked on December 10 at $24.44
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 23.34 change: -1.58 stop: 25.51*new*

Shares of TCHC are finally beginning to see some follow through lower. The stock plunged 6.3% on big volume and closed near its lows for the day. We are adjusting our stop loss to $25.51. Be aware that TCHC might try and bounce at the December 11th low near $23.30. Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range. The most recent (November) data puts short interest at over 6% of TCHC's 6.4% float. That's a very small float so 6% might be enough short interest to really increase the risk of a short squeeze should TCHC reverse higher.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand

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World Accpt. - WRLD - close: 46.11 change: +0.37 stop: 47.75

Traders bought the dip in WRLD at $45.19 but the bounce was rather anemic. We remain bearish on the stock with shares under $47.00. WRLD should have short-term resistance at $47.00 and again at the 50-dma near $47.40. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under 44.40 before opening positions. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. FYI: It is important for investors to note that the latest (November) data puts short interest at almost 15% of WRLD's 17.1 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and definitely raises the risk of a short squeeze if the stock suddenly turns higher.

Picked on December 18 at $45.81
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Florida East Coast - FLA - cls: 60.27 chg: -0.42 stop: 59.89

We have been stopped out of FLA at $59.89. Shares spiked lower this morning and briefly traded under round-number support at $60.00 and technical support at its 50-dma.

Picked on December 05 at $62.14
Change since picked: - 1.87
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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