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Long Play Updates

AllState - ALL - close: 65.69 change: +0.32 stop: 63.49

The S&P IUX Insurance index closed in the middle of the green pack today, up +0.6%, and that helped our long play in ALL. There was a minor dip below its 10-dma this morning but then rallied the rest of the day and nearly recovered Friday's decline. It's now above a 62% retracement of the decline from last week's high so fingers crossed the rally will continue. ALL is short term overbought so we could see a pullback but hopefully the 10-dma, now at $65.30, will continue to provide support. We remain bullish on the stock above $65.00 although we could see an intraday move down to its 20-dma at $64.50. While our stop remains at $63.49 (now near the rising 50-dma at $63.45) more aggressive traders may want to exit with a break of the uptrend line from August, currently at $64.30. Daily stochastics is now overbought and there is a bearish divergence on RSI. In the meantime our target is the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 15 at $65.25
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.40 change: +0.28 stop: 42.25

The XNG natural gas index was down -0.36% today, as were several energy sectors. But OKE bucked today's weakness in the energy field with a small rally and continues to show relative strength. By holding above $43 this should turn more bullish over the next several days and by moving higher it should get its 10-dma back above it 20-dma and lend price support. Our stop is currently near the uptrend line from May which is right on top of the 50-dma at $42.14. If you'd like just a little more staying power in this trade you can move your stop down to about $41.99.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand


Raytheon - RTN - close: 53.45 change: +0.02 stop: 51.99

RTN battled back and forth at the flat line today. We're watching how price will react if it RTN pulls back to its uptrend line from November which is right on top of its 10-dma, both at $53.15 (little higher on Wednesday). We remain somewhat cautious given the weakness in the major market indices and the overbought oscillators so we are not suggesting new positions. Considering how close Thursday's high ($54.17) came to our target in the $54.50-55.00 range and the steepness of the rally since November, we're raising our stop to protect profits now. The stop is being raised to $51.99 which keeps the stop below the 20-dma at $52.46 and the $52.06 low on 12/11/06.

Picked on November 29 at $51.05
Change since picked: + 2.40
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


St.Paul Travelers - STA - close: 54.02 change: +0.47 stop: 51.95

STA was relatively stronger than the Insurance index (IUX.X) today thus reversing its relatively weaker performance last Friday. But with the daily oscillators looking to be rolling over, and the bearish divergence at the last high we do not recommend any new plays in this stock. The current stop at $51.95 keeps it below the 20-dma and uptrend line from August, both currently at $52.60. Our target is the $57.50 level. The P&F chart is bullish with a $76 target.

Picked on December 17 at $53.56
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - close: 24.68 chg: -0.19 stop: 27.01

CAKE continues to be pressured lower by its downtrend line from the end of November and its 10-dma, both currently near $25.30 and dropping. This bodes well for our short play and the stop at $27.01 is above the 20-dma at $26.15. If the decline continues for another few days we'll be able to lower our stop to just above the breakdown level of $25.75. Use a bounce to the 10-dma or $25.75 to initiate a new play. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Colonial Prop. - CLP - close: 46.22 change: +0.36 stop: 48.26

CLP got a bounce today but has not made it back up to its 10-dma yet, currently at $46.65 and dropping. The bounce closed Friday's gap down at $46.07 which provided another short entry. The next short entry, if it bounces further on Wednesday, would be at its 10-dma which has been holding this down since its November high.
We're keeping our stop at $48.26 to keep it above the 200-dma but may consider dropping it closer to the 20-dma if this continues to drop lower. Our target is the May 2006 low at $42.68 but we will plan to exit at $42.75. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings. FYI: Traders should know that in the past few months CLP has been noted as a potential takeover/acquisition target in the real estate sector. If a deal is announced it could be very painful for shorts but we haven't heard anything further on the subject. Meanwhile short interest is about 3% of the 43.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 17 at $46.71
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 217 thousand


New Century - NEW - close: 34.32 change: -0.12 stop: 36.55

NEW bounced sharply at today's open and tagged its downtrend line from August and 20-dma, currently at $35.05. It made for another short entry for those who were able to watch it intraday. It was all down hill from there for the rest of the day and the short term pattern looks bearish. Our stop is presently just below the declining 50-dma at $36.65. Aggressive traders can lower their stop to just above the 20-dma and the previous low of $35.54 on 12/1/06 so perhaps $35.70. We remain bearish on NEW and traders can choose a breakdown under $34 or a failed rally under $35.10 as a new entry point. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. FYI: The most recent (November) data put short interest at 22% of the company's 50 million-share float. That is a very high degree of short interest and it does raise the risk of a short squeeze if NEW reverses sharply higher.

Picked on December 10 at $34.47
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million


21st Century - TCHC - close: 23.05 change: -0.19 stop: 26.01

Today's price action looks like further consolidation after Friday morning's big spike up. The downtrend line and 10-dma are both near $23.90, and dropping, so watch that level for potential resistance. Volume was very light today which supports the idea that we'll see a continuation of its bounce but it's hard to read volume during a holiday week like this. With the lower holiday volume and high short interest ratio we could see a stronger bounce. Our stop at $25.01 is close to the 20-dma at $25.06, and dropping, so that will hopefully allow this to whip around a bit underneath our stop. Our downside target is the $21.50-20.00 range. The most recent (November) data puts short interest at over 6% of TCHC's 6.4% float. That's a very small float so 6% might be enough short interest to really increase the risk of a short squeeze should TCHC reverse higher.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand


Cognos - COGN - close: 42.09 change: +1.12 stop: 42.31

The short play in this stock has not been triggered yet as we're still waiting for it to drop through its 50-dma and its uptrend line from August, currently at $39.80, to trigger our entry at $39.60. COGN got a nice bounce today so thankfully we're not short yet. Price action on the daily charts looks like it's just consolidating so we like our entry price and will patiently wait for it to get hit. We might raise our trigger price if this pushes a little higher in the coming week. Our downside target price is $35.00 which is just above its 200-dma and at previous price level resistance now potential support.

Picked on December 21 at $40.19 (waiting for trigger at $39.60)
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 12/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million


Citrix Sys. - CTXS - close: 26.82 change: -0.17 stop: 51.95

After dropping below support at $27.60, which is a potential H&S neckline for price action since August, we are now hoping to see CTXS head for its H&S price objective of $18 which is the same as the current P&F price objective. Aggressive traders can aim for that target while a short term downside target is a little less aggressive at $24.60 which is based on the 200 weekly average and a gap fill from October 2005 ($24.47 closing price on 10/24/05). An additional entry opportunity can be found if CTXS bounces back up to resistance at $27.60.

Picked on December 22 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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