Long Play Updates
AllState - ALL - close: 65.28 change: +0.17 stop: 63.49
We remain concerned with the lack of upward momentum in ALL. The stock's short-term technicals are turning bearish and the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. The trend is still up but the momentum has definitely faded and that leaves ALL vulnerable to more profit taking. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $69-70 range.
Picked on December 15 at $65.25
ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 43.09 change: -0.03 stop: 42.25
The big decline in crude oil (-4.5%) impacted the natural gas stocks as well. Shares of OKE managed to close the session with a fractional loss but the stock continues to look vulnerable to more profit taking. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early. We're not suggesting new plays.
Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Short Play Updates
Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 24.69 chg: +0.09 stop: 27.01
We do not see any changes from our weekend update on CAKE. The stock is still stuck in a sideways trading pattern. Readers can choose today's failed rally or wait for a new relative low as a potential entry point for shorts. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. We do expect some support near $24.00 but given the bearish technicals on the weekly chart we think any bounce at $24 would be temporary. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.
on December 18 at $25.65
Citrix Sys. - CTXS - close: 26.83 change: -0.22 stop: 28.43
The early morning rally in CTXS quickly failed and shares sank to a new multi-month low before bouncing back. The trend remains bearish for CTXS. We would still consider new shorts with the stock under $28.00. The P&F chart currently points to a $18 target. Our short-term target is $25.10-25.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.
Picked on December 22 at $27.45
21st Century - TCHC - close: 23.03 change: -0.72 stop: 25.01
It looks like TCHC has produced another bearish reversal and entry point for shorts. The stock produced a failed rally at $24.74near its 21-dma and the trendline of lower highs. Today's session also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More conservative traders may want to exit near the rising 100-dma currently around $21.74. Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range.
Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Closed Long Plays
Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.11 change: -0.69 stop: 51.99
We have been stopped out of RTN at $51.99. The stock began to breakdown last week with the big drop under the 10-dma. Today saw RTN slip 1.3% and traded intraday under support at the $52.00 level. Volume came in above average on today's decline, which is bearish.
November 29 at $51.05
St.Paul Travelers - STA - cls: 53.55 change: -0.14 stop: 51.95
We are suggesting an early exit in STA. The stock produced another failed rally pattern, its second one in three days. Shares have a bearish divergence between price and the MACD. Speaking of the MACD it just produced a new sell signal. We'd rather exit now and look elsewhere for new plays. Aggressive traders can keep an eye on the $53 region for potential support.
Picked on December 17 at $53.56
Closed Short Plays
Colonial Prop. - CLP - close: 47.24 change: +0.36 stop: 48.01
We are suggesting an early exit with CLP. The stock's oversold bounce from its December lows is not slowing down. The technical picture is starting to turn bullish and shares have cleared various levels of resistance. We'd rather exit now and salvage our capital to deploy elsewhere.
on December 17 at $46.71
Gognos - COGN - close: 42.29 chg: -0.17 stop: 42.31
We are dropping COGN as a bearish candidate. The stock is not cooperating and has yet to breakdown under technical support at its rising 50-dma. We were waiting for a drop to our trigger at $39.60 but it hasn't happened yet. The trading over the last couple of sessions looks like COGN wants to move higher first. We're dropping the play unopened.
Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
New Century - NEW - close: 31.30 change: -0.29 stop: 36.01
Target achieved. NEW continued to sink on Wednesday. Shares hit an intraday low of $30.72. Our target was the $31.00-30.00 range. If you failed to exit with us we suggest exiting now since NEW looks very oversold and due for a bounce.
Picked on December 10 at $34.47