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Long Play Updates

AllState - ALL - close: 65.36 change: +0.08 stop: 63.49

There is no significant change from our previous update on ALL. We remain concerned with the lack of upward momentum in ALL. The stock's short-term technicals are turning bearish and the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. The trend is still up but the momentum has definitely faded and that leaves ALL vulnerable to more profit taking. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $69-70 range.

Picked on December 15 at $65.25
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 42.64 change: -0.45 stop: 42.25

Another big loss for crude oil today following yesterday's sell-off might be weighing on OKE, a natural gas utility. Shares slipped just over 1% to trade near support at $42.50 and its 50-dma. More conservative traders might want to exit early. With our stop loss at breakeven our risk is down to our trading commissions. We're not suggesting new longs at this time.

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 02/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 25.10 chg: +0.41 stop: 27.01

CAKE managed a 1.6% bounce from the bottom of its recent trading range. Today's close over its simple 10-dma is a bullish signal so traders need to turn more defensive here. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop loss. The $26.00 level and the 100-dma near $26.30 could be overhead resistance. Wait for a failed rally if you're looking for a new entry point. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (November) data puts short interest at 11.8% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Citrix Sys. - CTXS - close: 27.95 change: +1.12 stop: 28.43

Tech stocks led the market higher on Thursday. The GSO software index posted a 1.7% gain. Shares of CTXS, which were arguably looking oversold, produced a 4.1% gain. Shares of CTXS are now trading near what should be resistance around the $28 level and the neckline of its bearish head-and-shoulders pattern (in the $27.50-28.00 region). We would wait for a drop back under $27.00 before considering new shorts. The P&F chart currently points to a $18 target. Our short-term target is $25.10-25.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on December 22 at $27.45
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million


21st Century - TCHC - close: 22.16 change: -0.87 stop: 25.01

TCHC under performed the market and lost 3.77% on Thursday. More conservative traders may want to exit right here as the stock is nearing potential support at its rising 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $21.50-20.00 range.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: - 2.68
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand

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