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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 53.03 change: -1.57 stop: 53.49

CAE could not evade the profit taking on Friday. Shares lost 2.8% and completely erased Thursday's gains. In spite of the decline our strategy remains unchanged. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $55.50 level. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock is at $55.65. If triggered our target is the $59.65-60.00 range. Currently the P&F chart is bullish with a $70 target but if shares trade over $56 it will produce a new quadruple top breakout buy signal. FYI: If CAE closes (or trades) under support near $52 we'll probably drop it as a bullish candidate. Traders should be aware that the MACD on the weekly chart is looking a little tired and the RSI indicator on the daily chart isn't looking very bullish either. Those are just a couple of reasons why it's important to wait for the breakout before considering new positions.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 66 thousand


MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.32 change: +0.80 stop: 31.90

Shares of MEDI managed to buck the trend on Friday and posted a strong gain. Shares rose 2.3% on big volume to breakout over resistance and close at new multi-month highs. The strong week has turned most of the technical indicators positive. Fueling the move was strength in biotechs earlier this past week. However, Friday's rally appears to have been ignited by new talk that MEDI should put itself up for sale since a larger company could do a better job marketing MEDI's products. We were suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $33.80 but MEDI gapped open at $33.98, which is our new entry price. Traders can choose to buy the stock now or look for a dip back toward what should be support in the $33.75-33.80 region. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 31.09 change: +0.03 stop: 28.95

Many of the Chinese stocks suffered some profit taking on Friday. The Chinese-Internet related stocks were somewhat resilient and SINA fared better than most. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Thursday night so we're reposting it here:

Chinese Internet stocks have staged a two-day rally. Volume has also picked up with SINA's volume coming in at more than three times the daily average Thursday. Thursday's rally pushed SINA through resistance at the $30.00 level and helped the MACD produce a new buy signal on the daily chart. We normally do not like to chase a big move so we're labeling this an aggressive, higher-risk play. We would consider positions now but our preferred entry point would be on a dip back toward $30.50 or near the $30.00 level. Broken resistance in the $29.50-30.00 range should now act as short-term support. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. The P&F chart has just broken through resistance and now points to a $52 target. It might be worth noting that the latest (December) data put short interest at just over 9% of SINA's 37.5 million-share float. That could be enough to substantially raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is good news if you're long the stock. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 04 at $31.06
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 749 thousand

Short Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 24.66 chg: -0.44 stop: 26.36*new*

CAKE has spent most of the last three weeks trading sideways. While the lack of downward momentum might be frustrating for the bears the trend remains negative. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a decline under $24.50 could be used as a new entry point. We're electing to move our stop loss down to $26.36, which is near the 100-dma overhead. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $4.00 target. FYI: The most recent (December) data puts short interest at 10.6% of CAKE's 73.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and could raise the risk of a short-squeeze if CAKE manages to rally.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million


Citrix Sys. - CTXS - close: 27.85 change: -0.10 stop: 28.43

The rally in technology (and software stocks) stalled on Friday. Shares of CTXS lost 0.35%. The overall, larger trend in CTXS is still bearish but short-term the stock might be still trying to bounce. Our stop loss may be too tight and more aggressive traders may want to consider adjusting their stop toward $28.75 or the $29.00 level putting it above the six-week trendline of lower highs. We would wait for a drop back under $27.00 before considering new shorts. The P&F chart currently points to a $18 target. Our short-term target is $25.10-25.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on December 22 at $27.45
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million


21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.95 change: -0.21 stop: 24.84*new*

We do not see any changes from our previous updates. TCHC has declined to potential technical support at its rising 100-dma near $22.00. We strongly suggest that more conservative traders exit right here. If TCHC doesn't move lower soon we'll exit early. Currently we're aiming for the $21.50-20.00 range. We're adjusting our stop loss to $24.84. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: - 2.89
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand

Closed Long Plays

AllState - ALL - close: 65.18 change: -0.18 stop: 63.49

We have been trying to ride ALL's bullish trend for the last three weeks but have thus far failed to achieve any success. The stock's upward momentum has stalled just as the S&P's IUX insurance index has begun to see some profit taking. We're suggesting an early exit to avoid or limit any losses. We'd keep an eye on ALL for future possibilities if shares bounce strongly from the 50-dma or hit a new high.

Picked on December 15 at $65.25
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


ONEOK Inc. - OKE - close: 41.86 change: -0.78 stop: 42.25

We have been stopped out of OKE at $42.25 (breakeven). The market-wide profit taking continued to impact shares of OKE and the stock lost 1.8% to breakdown under support at its 50-dma and the $42.50 level (and now the $42.00 level).

Picked on November 28 at $42.25
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 02/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 547 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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