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Long Play Updates

Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 41.97 change: -0.23 stop: 39.95

The hardware index looks poised to move higher thanks to strength in IBM today. Unfortunately, HPQ failed to participate in the move. If HPQ does consolidate lower we would look for a dip in the $41.00-41.75 region as a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. Our short-term target is the $46.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might want to put their stop loss under $41.00.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.25 change: -0.07 stop: 31.90

The big news for MEDI today was an announcement that the FDA had approved the company's refrigerated version of FluMist (verses the old version that needed to be kept frozen). The announcement was not enough to move the stock and shares experienced some profit taking after yesterday's rally. We remain bullish on MEDI with the stock above $33.00. Traders can choose to buy the stock now or look for a dip back toward what should be support in the $33.75-33.80 region. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 31.66 change: +0.57 stop: 28.95

It was a mixed day for Internet stocks, including the Chinese Internets. Shares of SINA continued to show relative strength and rose 1.8% on strong volume. This remains an aggressive, higher-risk play but the rally certainly looks strong. We would consider positions now but our preferred entry point would be on a dip back toward $30.50 or near the $30.00 level. Broken resistance in the $29.50-30.00 range should now act as short-term support. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. The P&F chart has just broken through resistance and now points to a $52 target. It might be worth noting that the latest (December) data put short interest at just over 9% of SINA's 37.5 million-share float. That could be enough to substantially raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is good news if you're long the stock. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 04 at $31.06
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 749 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 38.90 chg: +0.37 stop: 40.25

There is no change from our weekend play description for ANDE so we are reposting it here:

In spite of positive comments about the outlook for ethanol shares of ANDE have continued to turn lower with the drop in crude oil prices. ANDE spent the last part of December building a failed rally under $43.00 and its November highs. Friday's decline was fueled by strong rally and ended with a breakdown under $40.00 and its 50-dma. Now shares are flirting with a breakdown under its three-month trendline of support and technical support at the 100-dma. We are suggesting a trigger at $36.99 to short the stock. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 24.56 chg: -0.10 stop: 25.65*new*

Warning! Prepare to be stopped out of CAKE tomorrow. After the closing bell this evening the company issued an early release of its fourth quarter sales numbers. Analysts were expecting $353 million for the quarter and CAKE raked in $360 million. The news sent the stock soaring more than 5% in after hours trading. We are adjusting our stop loss to breakeven at $25.65 but we fully expect the stock to gap open higher tomorrow. Our stop will only work if shares don't gap higher. The company's normal earnings report is expected in early February.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 42.50 change: -0.41 stop: 45.05

Our new play in GTRC is now open. The stock continued to sink and traded under the $42.50 level on an intraday basis. Our suggested trigger to short GTRC was at $42.45 and the low today was $42.43. The close under its 100-dma is bearish. We don't see any changes from our weekend play description. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $40.10 level. Our aggressive target will be $37.50. Please note this is considered an aggressive, higher risk play because GTRC is due to report its fourth quarter and full-year top line sales number on January 10th. The company's sales numbers could spark a big move either direction. More conservative traders should definitely wait until after the report has been announced. We do not want to hold over the February 8th earnings report. FYI: Be advised that the latest (December) data put short interest at almost 18% of GTRC's 29.2 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and a small float and combined they raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is another reason why we are labeling this a high-risk play.

Picked on January 08 at $42.45
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 554 thousand

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Hibbett Sporting Goods - HIBB - cls: 29.80 chg: +0.28 stop: 31.15

HIBB produced an oversold bounce on Monday but it looks like shares struggled near the $30.00 level and this might be a new failed rally and entry point for bears. More conservative traders may want to wait for more weakness to confirm the failed rally. There is potential support at $28.00 with its 100-dma and potential support with the 200-dma near $27. Conservative traders may want to exit near $28. Our target is the $26.75 mark.

Picked on January 07 at $29.52
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 340 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - close: 49.24 chg: +0.19 stop: 52.51

Caution is warranted! Our play in SAFT is now open but we would hesitate about opening new positions. The stock dipped to $48.40 on an intraday basis and broke support at its simple and exponential 200-dma(s). Our trigger to short the stock was at $48.49. Unfortunately, the stock bounced back from its lows. Readers can watch for a failed rally near $50.00 or a new relative low before opening plays. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Cascade - CAE - close: 52.25 change: -0.78 stop: 53.49

It does not look like shares of CAE are going to cooperate with our bullish designs. We have been waiting for a breakout over resistance near $55.50 but the stock is moving the opposite direction. We're dropping CAE as a bullish candidate at this time. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock was at $55.65.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 66 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Citrix Sys. - CTXS - close: 28.78 change: +0.93 stop: 28.43

We have been stopped out of CTXS at $28.43. The stock was strong from the opening bell and quickly traded past our stop loss and eventually traded over $29.00 and its 50-dma on an intraday basis.

Picked on December 22 at $27.45
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.49 change: -0.46 stop: 24.84

Target achieved. TCHC continued to sink and the stock hit an intraday low of $20.87. Our suggested target was the $21.50-20.00 range. The close under its 100-dma is bearish so more aggressive traders may want aim lower.

Picked on December 10 at $24.84
Change since picked: - 3.35
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

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