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Long Play Updates

Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.20 change: +0.23 stop: 39.95

The GHA hardware index continues to inch higher and is nearing new multi-year highs thanks again to another strong session from IBM. Shares of HPQ are still inching higher with today's gain erasing yesterday's loss. The outlook for HPQ continues to look bullish but it might be time for a rest and a dip back toward the 10-dma. Readers may want to wait for a dip into the $41.00-41.75 region before opening new positions. Our short-term target is the $46.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might want to put their stop loss under $41.00.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.83 change: +0.58 stop: 31.90

Shares of MEDI rose 1.69% and on strong volume after the U.S. Supreme court ruled in MEDI's favor in a patent dispute against Genentech. Traders can choose to buy the stock now or look for a dip back toward what should be support in the $33.75-33.80 region. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 31.67 change: +0.01 stop: 28.95

SINA is trying to hold on to its gains but it might be time for a dip after the recent burst higher. Readers can use a dip in the $30.00-31.00 region as a new bullish entry point but it might pay to wait and watch for signs of a bounce first. Broken resistance in the $29.50-30.00 range should now act as short-term support. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. The P&F chart has just broken through resistance and now points to a $52 target. It might be worth noting that the latest (December) data put short interest at just over 9% of SINA's 37.5 million-share float. That could be enough to substantially raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is good news if you're long the stock. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 04 at $31.06
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 749 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 37.72 chg: -1.18 stop: 40.25

ANDE suffered another round of profit taking with a dip to the $37.00 level and its exponential 200-dma. The stock closed with a 3% loss but failed to hit our trigger at $36.99 so technically we are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for further weakness. More aggressive traders may want to open positions now. We would rather wait for the breakdown under support so we're sticking to our plan. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 43.25 change: +0.75 stop: 45.05

GTRC rebounded on Tuesday with a 1.7% gain and on better than average volume. That's a danger sign for the bears although we did note that today's rally failed to breakout past its 50-dma. Traders can choose to short a dip under $43.00 or wait for a new decline under $42.50 before opening positions. CAUTION - don't forget that GTRC is due to report is fourth quarter and full-year top line sales numbers tomorrow on January 10th. We warned readers about this earlier and the report could really get the stock moving. More conservative traders should definitely wait until after the report has been announced before considering positions. We do not want to hold over the February 8th earnings report. FYI: Be advised that the latest (December) data put short interest at almost 18% of GTRC's 29.2 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and a small float and combined they raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is another reason why we are labeling this a high-risk play.

Picked on January 08 at $42.45
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 554 thousand

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Hibbett Sporting Goods - HIBB - cls: 30.66 chg: +0.86 stop: 31.15

Caution! HIBB is rebounding sharply and on stronger than average volume. That is a danger sign for the shorts. We don't see any news driving the stock, which doesn't help. Shares are nearing its three-week trendline of resistance. Wait for a drop back under $30.00 or $29.50 before considering new positions. Conservative traders may want to exit near $28. Our target is the $26.75 mark.

Picked on January 07 at $29.52
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 340 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 50.05 chg: +0.81 stop: 51.51*new*

We have to issue a warning here with SAFT. We don't see any news but the stock rose 1.6% on above average volume. Furthermore the close back above its 200-dma and the $50.00 level should be considered bullish. We're adjusting our stop loss to $51.51 and more conservative traders may want to exit early now or tighten their stop toward $51.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Cheesecake Factory - CAKE - cls: 26.99 chg: +2.43 stop: 25.65

We have been stopped out of CAKE at $26.48. We warned readers yesterday that the company's positive fourth-quarter sales news that was released last night would send the stock higher. We adjusted our stop loss to $25.65 but CAKE gapped open at $26.48 and closed near $27 above its 50-dma.

Picked on December 18 at $25.65
Change since picked: + 1.34
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

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