Long Play Updates
Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.20 change: +0.00 stop: 39.95
We are growing more disappointed with HPQ's performance lately. The GHA hardware index broke out to new multi-year highs even as IBM sank 1.1% on a downgrade. Yet shares of HPQ are not moving. The trend is still bullish for HPQ but the momentum is fading somewhat. Then again HPQ hasn't been a very fast mover. Watch for a bounce from its rising 10-dma as confirmation that the trend remains in affect. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $41.00. Our short-term target is the $46.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might want to put their stop loss under $41.00.
Picked on January 07 at $42.20
MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.78 change: -0.05 stop: 31.90
Wednesday's normal trading session proved to be a non-event for MEDI. Shares closed almost unchanged on low volume. The company did confirm that it would report earnings on February 7th. Meanwhile after the close it looks like MEDI received some mixed news regarding patent infringement lawsuits involving an Indian drugmaker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Yet shares of MEDI appeared to be responding positively in after hours with the stock trading above $35.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time unless we see a strong bounce near $34.00. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.
on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 32.32 change: +0.65 stop: 29.49*new*
It was back to the races with SINA on Wednesday. The stock rose over 2% and closed over the $32.00 level. Volume came in pretty strong, which tends to be a bullish signal. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $29.49. Broken resistance in the $29.50-30.00 range should now act as short-term support. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. The P&F chart has just broken through resistance and now points to a $52 target. It might be worth noting that the latest (December) data put short interest at just over 9% of SINA's 37.5 million-share float. That could be enough to substantially raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is good news if you're long the stock. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.
Picked on January 04 at $31.06
Short Play Updates
The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 38.19 chg: +0.47 stop: 40.25
We do not see any changes from our previous updates on ANDE. We're still waiting for a breakdown under support at the $37.00 mark. Our suggested trigger to short ANDE is at $36.99. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 42.58 change: -0.67 stop: 44.55*new*
This morning before the opening bell GTRC released its fourth-quarter sales figures and they were significantly under analysts estimates. The company also issued an earnings warning for the quarter. Shares gapped open lower at $41.08, dipped to $40.98 before bouncing back. Watch for a failed rally anywhere under $44.00 as a potential entry point for new shorts. We do not want to hold over the February 8th earnings report. We have two targets on GTRC. Our conservative target is the $40.10 mark. Our aggressive target is the $37.50 level. Please note that we're inching our stop loss down to $44.55. FYI: Be advised that the latest (December) data put short interest at almost 18% of GTRC's 29.2 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and a small float and combined they raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is another reason why we are labeling this a high-risk play.
Picked on January 08 at $42.45
Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 49.22 chg: -0.83 stop: 51.51
The bounce in SAFT failed at the $50.00 level. This is good news for the bears but we're not out of the woods yet. The stock is still flirting with technical support at its rising 200-dma and a long-term trendline of support. We would wait for a new decline under $48.50 before considering new positions. More conservative traders who have not exited may want to tighten their stops toward $51.00. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
Hibbett Sporting Goods - HIBB - cls: 31.99 chg: +1.33 stop: 31.15
We have been stopped out of HIBB at $31.15. We warned readers yesterday that the stock was looking dangerous for shorts. In hindsight the technical breakdown on January 5th under support at $30.00 and its 50-dma now looks like a bear trap. Volume has been picking up on the rebound and we still cannot find any company specific news to account for the strength.
Picked on January 07 at $29.52