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Long Play Updates

Continental Air. - CAL - close: 49.66 chg: +0.30 stop: 44.89*new*

Last week was very strong for the airlines. The XAL index rose more than 8% thanks to plunging oil prices and renewed focus on M&A in the sector. Shares of CAL managed to out perform its peers with an 11% gain last week. More conservative traders may want to exit now since we're running out of time. CAL is due to report earnings on January 18th and we do not want to hold over the announcement. Due to our time frame and that CAL is now challenging potential round-number resistance at $50.00 we're not suggesting new long positions. We will raise our stop loss to $44.89. Our target is the $51.75-52.00 range.

Picked on January 10 at $47.45
Change since picked: + 2.21
Earnings Date 01/18/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.7 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 43.53 change: +0.89 stop: 39.95

HPQ is on the run. Shares rose another 2% on Friday with strong volume behind the move. Money moving out of energy and into tech made HPQ a target for funds. Plus, there was plenty of talk on Friday that HPQ was the real winner between the Intel/AMD rivalry. We're not suggesting new positions in HPQ at this time but another dip and bounce near $42.00 or its 10-dma could be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $41.00. Our short-term target is the $46.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 35.37 change: +0.34 stop: 32.95*new*

Biotech stocks and drug stocks both turned in strong gains late last week. This sector strength helped propel MEDI higher again even though shares are beginning to look a little overbought. The stock is nearing our target in the $36.50-37.00 range so we're not suggesting new positions. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $32.95 We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 73.01 chg: +1.51 stop: 67.45*new*

The XBD broker-dealer index continued to rally on Friday and hit another new all-time high. This sector strength helped PJC rise another 2.1% and close at a multi-month high. The stock is quickly approaching our target in the $74.75-75.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart points to a $90 target (was $78 a few days ago). Please note that we do not want to hold over the January 24th earnings report. FYI: We are raising our stop loss to $67.45.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: + 3.56
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 38.12 chg: +0.08 stop: 34.90

Shares of RATE still look poised to move higher but we're a little concerned by the lack of follow through on Wednesday's big bounce. Last Wednesday saw RATE bounce from support near $34.00 and its exponential 200-dma. The rebound came close to breaking resistance at its trendline of lower highs. We suggested a trigger to go long the stock at $38.25, which shares hit on Thursday. We suspect that RATE is in the process of going through a short-squeeze but the lack of upward momentum on Thursday and Friday does not confirm anything. We remain short-term bullish but more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss or wait for a rally past $38.75 before initiating positions. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 33.35 change: +0.59 stop: 29.99*new*

SINA managed to out perform most of its Chinese Internet counterparts on Friday. Shares of SINA rose 1.8% to close at another new 52-week high. The rally (or short squeeze) continues to see a lot of momentum with SINA closing at its high for the day on Friday. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we are adjusting our target to $34.00-35.00 and our stop loss to $29.99. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss or even consider exiting early for a gain right now. The P&F chart has broken through resistance and now points to a $58 target. It might be worth noting that the latest (December) data put short interest at just over 9% of SINA's 37.5 million-share float. That could be enough to substantially raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is good news if you're long the stock. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 04 at $31.06
Change since picked: + 2.29
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 749 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 38.00 chg: -0.85 stop: 40.25

We continue to read positive things about the ethanol industry and market yet shares of ANDE are not showing any strength. We also found it interesting that volume on Friday's 2.1% decline in ANDE was pretty strong. We're going to stick to our plan for now. We are waiting for a breakdown under support at the $37.00 mark. Our suggested trigger to short ANDE is at $36.99. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Guitar Center - GTRC - close: 43.89 change: +0.67 stop: 44.55

Unfortunately, we have nothing new to report on for GTRC. Shares continued to bounce on Friday but failed to breakout over short-term resistance near $44.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early anyway and cut their losses. We're concerned that if the major averages continue to rally that GTRC will probably follow. Investors have forgotten GTRC's recent earnings warning as retail stocks bounce on plunging oil prices. We do not want to hold over the February 8th earnings report. We have two targets on GTRC. Our conservative target is the $40.10 mark. Our aggressive target is the $37.50 level. FYI: Be advised that the latest (December) data put short interest at almost 18% of GTRC's 29.2 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and a small float and combined they raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is another reason why we are labeling this a high-risk play.

Picked on January 08 at $42.45
Change since picked: + 1.44
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 554 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 50.00 chg: +0.32 stop: 51.05*new*

Traders should remain cautious with SAFT. The six-week trend in the stock is bearish but there has been no follow through lower after breaking its long-term trendline of support (see chart). We are somewhat encouraged that SAFT remains near what should be short-term resistance at the $50.00 level. However, if the major averages continue to rally then SAFT is likely to bounce even more. Wait for a new decline under $48.50 before considering new shorts. We are inching our stop loss down to $51.05. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 1.51
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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