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Long Play Updates

Arrow Elec. - ARW - close: 34.33 chg: -0.41 stop: 33.74

ARW did see some profit taking on Wednesday. We warned readers last night that the Intel news might undermine any tech stock strength. The selling in ARW paused near its rising 10-dma, which is short-term technical support. Readers can use a bounce from here (or the $34.00 level) as a new bullish entry point to go long. Our target remains the $36.50 level near the May highs. We do not want to hold over the February earnings report.

Picked on January 14 at $34.75
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 02/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 800 thousand

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Cascade - CAE - close: 53.39 chg: +0.69 stop: 52.45

Shares of CAE are experiencing some volatility. After yesterday's failed rally the stock plunged to $51.70 this morning before bouncing. We also noticed that volume was very strong on today's rebound. There is a fight going on between the bulls and bears in CAE and we want to stay out of it. If CAE is trading close to $55 by the close on Friday we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Currently our suggested entry point is to go long at $55.76. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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China Mobile - CHL - cls: 44.06 chg: +0.16 stop: 39.99

The Chinese markets appeared to mirror the U.S. markets by trading sideways. This left CHL to trade on its own merits and shares inched higher. Readers can choose to buy this rebound or wait for a potential pull back toward the $42.50-43.00 region. More conservative traders may want to put their stop under $40.86. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $50.

Picked on January 14 at $42.60
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 43.97 chg: +0.34 stop: 41.45

Cable-related stocks were turning higher today after CVC turned down a $30-a-share buy-out offer. Shares of CMCSK posted another gain and another new multi-year high. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.49 change: -0.71 stop: 39.95

Tech stocks were generally weaker on Wednesday as investors reacted to Intel's earnings and narrowing margins news in addition to a downgrade for CSCO. HPQ lost 1.6% and dipped toward short-term technical support at its rising 10-dma. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but if you're jumping in now we'd suggest a tighter stop loss. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward $41 or $42 anyway. Our short-term target is the $46.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 35.03 change: -0.17 stop: 32.95

MEDI continues to look more vulnerable as the upward momentum fades. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops further. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 71.18 chg: -0.33 stop: 67.45

As expected shares of PJC suffered some profit taking. The good news was that traders stepped in to buy the dip near $70.00. The bounce from its lows could be used as a new entry point. However, we'd keep a close eye on the XBD Broker-dealer index, which didn't see as big of a bounce from its lows today. Our target is the $74.75-75.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $90 target (was $78 a few days ago). Please note that we do not want to hold over the January 24th earnings report.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: + 1.73
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 38.68 chg: +0.44 stop: 34.90

RATE out performed the market today. Shares closed up 1.1% and traded, intraday, above short-term resistance at the $38.75 level. It also looks like the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new buy signal. We remain short-term bullish but more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss or wait for another rally past $38.75 (or today's high 38.98) before initiating positions. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 39.65 chg: +1.85 stop: 40.25

We could not find any specific news to account for ANDE's 4.8% gain today. It could have been some short covering but we can't find any catalyst that would have spooked the shorts. If ANDE continues to show strength tomorrow we'll probably drop it as a bullish candidate. We are waiting for a breakdown under support at the $37.00 mark. Our suggested trigger to short ANDE is at $36.99. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. More conservative traders may want to widen their trigger to something like $36.95, 36.90, 36.85 just to raise the odds that we are catching a real breakdown. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 49.26 chg: +0.12 stop: 51.05

The first thing traders should notice is that there was no follow through lower on SAFT's failed rally and bearish reversal on Tuesday. That's a warning sign for the bears. One could argue that the recent consolidation has been nothing more than a short-term bear flag pattern, which would be okay. We're just a little cautious since SAFT is flirting with a breakdown at serious support near its 200-dma and its two-year trendline of support. A rally past Tuesday's highs could spark some short covering and technical buying as traders try to buy the bounce from support. Thus readers may want to wait for another drop under $48.49 before considering new shorts. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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