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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 52.98 chg: -0.41 stop: 52.45

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on CAE. If CAE is not trading close to $55 by the close on Friday we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Currently our suggested entry point is to go long at $55.76. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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China Mobile - CHL - cls: 44.44 chg: +0.38 stop: 40.86 *new*

CHL continues to inch higher with another 0.8% gain as traders bought the dip near $44.00 this afternoon. This is the fifth gain in a row for the U.S. traded version of CHL. Bolstering shares was another strong day in the Chinese markets today. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $40.86, under last week's low. Our target is the $46.50-47.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $50.

Picked on January 14 at $42.60
Change since picked: + 1.84
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 44.35 chg: +0.38 stop: 41.45

Thursday marks another gain for CMCSK. The stock is up four trading days in a row and continues to set new multi-year highs following last week's breakout from its consolidation pattern. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.34 chg: -0.15 stop: 40.44*new*

Tech stocks were the weak spot in the market today. Shares of HPQ tried to recover with a bounce back from its lows near $41.85. We are concerned that the major averages may be in the beginning stages of a correction. Therefore we're not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to exit early. Please note we're adjusting our stop loss to $40.44, which is under technical support at its rising 50-dma. FYI: After the bell IBM reported earnings and traders sold the news. If IBM sells off tomorrow it will drag on hardware stocks like HPQ.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.81 change: -0.22 stop: 32.95

There are no changes from our previous updates on MEDI. The stock continues to look vulnerable to profit taking as upward momentum has stalled. Today's session produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and more conservative traders may just want to exit early. We're expecting a dip back toward the $34.00 region. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 69.08 chg: -2.10 stop: 67.45

Warning! The sell-off in PJC is picking up speed. There was no follow through higher on Wednesday's intraday rebound. Instead PJC lost 2.9% and closed under the $70 level and its simple 10-dma. This is bad news for the bulls and more conservative traders may want to strongly consider an early exit right here. Driving the weakness was a sell-off in Merrill Lynch (MER) who reported strong earnings numbers but sold off anyway. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we do not want to hold over the January 24th earnings report.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 37.37 chg: -1.31 stop: 34.90

Warning! It looks like RATE's recent gains have become a target for profit taking. The stock lost 3.3% on rising volume today. Shares did find some support near its 10-dma and 50-dma but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. This is an aggressive trade and we have an aggressive (or wide) stop loss. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 39.10 chg: -0.55 stop: 40.25

There is no change from our previous updates on ANDE. We are waiting for a breakdown under support at the $37.00 mark. Our suggested trigger to short ANDE is at $36.99. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. More conservative traders may want to widen their trigger to something like $36.95, 36.90, 36.85 just to raise the odds that we are catching a real breakdown. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 47.78 chg: -1.48 stop: 50.55*new*

Market weakness helped SAFT begin its next move lower. Shares lost 3% and broke down to a new relative low. The drop under $48.50 was a new entry point for shorts. Today's move should also confirm a bearish breakdown under its two-year trendline of support. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $50.55. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target will be the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Arrow Elec. - ARW - close: 33.20 chg: -1.13 stop: 33.74

We have been stopped out of ARW at $33.74. Today's sell-off in tech stocks was too much and big declines in the semiconductor sector really undermined investor confidence. ARW lost 3.29% on big volume. The stock has broken down below the bottom of its previous trading range and short-term technical indicators have gone negative.

Picked on January 14 at $34.75
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 02/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 800 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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